Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[pegg24]

Wow how the charts can go wrong so quickly. bet it won't flip back now to cold

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

oh well, shorts out, maybe flip flops too, some of these charts by all models remind me of last Dec

Aye, for all the positive noises coming from well respected and knowledgable people the reality is we are staring down the barrel of a very mobile / positive NAO as we head through December. I would imagine the EC 46 later on will have smelt the coffee..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, for all the positive noises coming from well respected and knowledgable people the reality is we are staring down the barrel of a very mobile / positive NAO as we head through December. I would imagine the EC 46 later on will have smelt the coffee..

a shame because they are good forecasters, very well written forecast lots of effort gone in, well done to lorenzo and Matt!

but then you get a limited knowledge member like I remember Atlantic 252, saying the Atlantic will dominate with zonality, and hate for it to be correct

[BARRY]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

typical GFS for the 2000's, looks zonal from 7th, above average temps, wet and windy, ECM looks a bit better maybe drier, 13° and dry, rare so don't expect ECM to be correct 

That's the 10 December 3 days is a struggle at the moment

[Weather-history]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

typical GFS for the 2000's, looks zonal from 7th, above average temps, wet and windy, ECM looks a bit better maybe drier, 13° and dry, rare so don't expect ECM to be correct 

Typical for a good number of the winters of the 1990s as well. 

[mulzy]

8 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If this winter is "front-loaded", i.e. the current cold spell is as good as it's going to get, and the rest of winter will be either zonal jet-driven or a Euro high set-up, I hate to think how warm it'll be by February!

Bring on the heat!

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

a shame because they are good forecasters, very well written forecast lots of effort gone in, well done to lorenzo and Matt!

but then you get a limited knowledge member like I remember Atlantic 252, saying the Atlantic will dominate with zonality, and hate for it to be correct

That's the typical winter pattern, though. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

The models will improve in time, they always do even if what they predict doesn't come to fruition. Could be as soon as tomorrow for all we know or even the pub run could give us a bit of cheer. Point is ups and downs always happen in here and it's obviously been a down day. But I doubt we'll have to wait long for an up day again. 1 day down (one with a cold start as well so at least Winter so far is below average lol) another 89 to go.

[stainesbloke]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, for all the positive noises coming from well respected and knowledgable people the reality is we are staring down the barrel of a very mobile / positive NAO as we head through December. I would imagine the EC 46 later on will have smelt the coffee..

But many of the well respected and knowledgeable people (including the MetO) have said there would be a milder and more mobile period of weather before blocking takes over, which is exactly what is showing now on the models. 

It has been a gorgeous week here with some sharp frosts and crisp, sunny days. Perfect winter weather, personally speaking. 

Edited December 1, 2016 by stainesbloke

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

But many of the well respected and knowledgeable people (including the MetO) have said there would be a milder and more mobile period of weather before blocking takes over, which is exactly what is showing now on the models. 

It has been a gorgeous week here with some sharp frosts and crisp, sunny days. Perfect.

Aye, its misty, dull and quite mild here  infact, its horrid.The forecast which you described perfectly by the way, is going to be a massive bust..first sign of that will be tonights EC ..

Sorry sb that sounds a bit arrogant, im just really hacked off with our crappy climate..

Edited December 1, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frost HoIIow]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, for all the positive noises coming from well respected and knowledgable people the reality is we are staring down the barrel of a very mobile / positive NAO as we head through December. I would imagine the EC 46 later on will have smelt the coffee..

Aye not good pal, might consider some time off here for a bit. As we all know it can be an absolute pain in the back side trying to shift HP to the south. It's just ridiculous how as soon as go into Winter this happens time and time again. You can bet by Spring we will see a corker of a HP over Greenland or Scandi rubbing salt into the wound.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Aye not good pal, might consider some time off here for a bit. As we all know it can be an absolute pain in the back side trying to shift HP to the south. It's just ridiculous how as soon as go into Winter this happens time and time again. You can bet by Spring we will see a corker of a HP over Greenland or Scandi rubbing salt into the wound.

April northerlies coming, May easterlies, dismal setup that

[iapennell]

THIS is an illustration of expected wind-speeds thoughout the depth of the atmosphere from Equator to North Pole: All that red is Westerly winds.

Notice the red in the Stratosphere over the Equator and tropical latitudes (70 mb to 15 mb), which ties in with the QBO being strongly Westerly at 30 mb through both September and October and Westerly at 50 mb in both those months. There are also westerly winds at 200 to 300 mb in all tropical latitudes which is unusual. There are also very strong Westerlies developing at stratospheric/mesospheric levels on the fridges of the Arctic and over higher mid-latitudes. 

Sooner or later all this Westerly AAM will reach the surface. NOT good news for cold-weather lovers!

[Scandinavian High.]

December 1st today lets all be  patient  We have more chance seeing some cold and snowy weather at some point this winter  the meto where never really going for any snowy conditions this early in December so we will get mild interludes through out the winter just like the very cold winters 1962 -1963 not saying this winter  will be like that' just saying  i do think the cold will come with snow later part of this month .

[cheshire snow]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

December 1st today lets all be  patient  We have more chance seeing some cold and snowy weather at some point this winter  the meto where never really going for any snowy conditions this early in December so we will get mild interludes through out the winter just like the very cold winters 1962 -1963 not saying this winter  will be like that' just saying  i do think the cold will come with snow later part of this month .

LOL the PV is wearing a bow tie...looking down smiling saying I am coming to get you.

C.S 

[Weather-history]

As someone said years ago

"Only a fool gets an ulcer over something that they can't control"

[Gustywind]

10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

a shame because they are good forecasters, very well written forecast lots of effort gone in, well done to lorenzo and Matt!

but then you get a limited knowledge member like I remember Atlantic 252, saying the Atlantic will dominate with zonality, and hate for it to be correct

I don't think we'll get a full on zonal winter like last year or 2013-14, as the polar vortex is nowhere near as strong as in those years.

This year actually reminds me of 2005/6. There were high hopes going into that winter, with shades of 62/63 being mentioned and even the Met forecast cold.

We struggled that winter to get the -NAO the forecasters had predicted for similar reasons to the recent fails this year. Eventually in Feb, it did turn negative but brought a rather boring, potent but dry northerly. It did give a brief and potent easterly Xmas week which brought some snow in the east and I think we had a big easterly near miss in Jan 06.

Overall though it was a fairly boring but cool winter, with me thinking what might have been had the cards fallen more kindly for the UK.

i suspect this winter will be similar - generally cool, a mixture of cold and mild phases but generally dry.

 

 

[daz_4]

7 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

This year actually reminds me of 2005/6. There were high hopes going into that winter, with shades of 62/63 being mentioned and even the Met forecast cold.

05/06 is still considered to be the best winter of the 21st century here in Czech Republic so I guess I wouldn't mind a repeat, heh.

Snow was laying from 28th December to 24th of March. Magical winter.

[mountain shadow]

Im not throwing in the towel for December until GP and Tamara do. There still remains a forlorn hope that the longer term models are not reading the MJO and GLAAM signals correctly.

[stainesbloke]

11 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, its misty, dull and quite mild here  infact, its horrid.The forecast which you described perfectly by the way, is going to be a massive bust..first sign of that will be tonights EC ..

Sorry sb that sounds a bit arrogant, im just really hacked off with our crappy climate..

I understand frustration with our climate very well lol....for me, it has been a decade of crap summers causing severe mood swings! Still I firmly believe that this year/winter will be different to the last few horror shows. Not saying snowmaggeddon lol but interesting times hopefully.

[cheshire snow]

Think we need to wipe the slate clean and move on,yes a big let down after all

The excitement November bought.so we are going  milder but at least we are not

Staring at low after low moving SW to NE like last year,

As they say in football.....We go again.

C.S

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not throwing in the towel for December until GP and Tamara do. There still remains a forlorn hope that the longer term models are not reading the MJO and GLAAM signals correctly.

IMO, Ian Ferguson is the one to take note and his inputs. I feel far too many people grab GP and Tamara's inputs and run with the ball. Last winter's "torpedo" was an example, it was a debacle. I still don't fully understand what that was all about.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Weather-history

[Froze were the Days]

All I can say is prepare for many monotonous runs in the coming weeks...once that PV digs it heels in then winter can just shoot through. Can take it now as the festive period is on the horizon but into the New Year it's really disheartening.

By the way totally agree with the above post.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[jvenge]

37 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

IMO, Ian Ferguson is the one to take note and his inputs. I feel far too many people grab GP and Tamara's inputs and run with the ball. Last winter's "torpedo" was an example, it was a debacle. I still don't fully understand what that was all about.

Well, isn't that your problem? Tamara's input is fantastic and she doesn't ramp. GP is also fantastically knowledgable. Ian, of course, is also knowledgeable, but he also has access to what the Met Office see, so that is a differential.

If people don't understand what GP and Tamara post, just click ignore on their usernames.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

IMO, Ian Ferguson is the one to take note and his inputs. I feel far too many people grab GP and Tamara's inputs and run with the ball. Last winter's "torpedo" was an example, it was a debacle. I still don't fully understand what that was all about.

No body grabs on to anything.

They have a better grasp of the longer term teleconnections than pretty much anyone else on here, only a fool would ignore what they are saying.