Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[MidnightSnow]

It's not even December yet. 

[Frost HoIIow]

53 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Early signs mean zilch.

Most people in internet land on forums just believe what they read on the internet. It's laughable really.

There are an elite number of posters on NW who really know their stuff (weather wise) and a select few who are genuinely educated in this field and are scientifically clued up.

The British Isles weather is affected by a relatively mild Atlantic most of the time. The last 10 months or so have been relatively dry and it can only be a matter of time before the Atlantic cranks up. 

As for excitement building because to our East the cold is building.....well in 9 out of 10 winters it does, because that part of the world just does get v cold in Winter. It sometimes visits our green and pleasant land once a decade...or so.

 

True - but these signs weren't there for the last few Winters especially so early on - unusual with a normally very active Atlantic at this time of year which is still not active. So it's no fault that many members have got giddy me included. The experts you talk about have said that December could be colder than normal & Fergie himself for the past few weeks has said things are looking a lot different to this time last year with lots of wording of northern blocking in his posts.

I don't recall much if any posts like that last Winter at all, he only mentioned a waning of the relentless Atlantic was expected towards the end of Winter & he was right, there was practically zero optimism compared to recently. So you cannot expect people to be completely sceptical of what he says given he has more data available to him than you or I (assuming you don't work for the Met Office)

I suppose with the UK climate it is easier to do so given the last few Winters. There's time for things to get much better with the model output though. It ain't over till the fat lady sings, but the next few days are going to be important to see where we go through the first half of the month. I haven't done too bad though so far with a covering of snow almost 2 weeks ago and some medium to hard frosts before & after, all of this before Winter has begun. Already better than the whole of Winter 13-14!......but it would be nice to get a decent fall of snow in the depths of Winter and not Spring like we got this year in March!

Edited December 1, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[A Frayed Knot]

For Gods Sake  ''' CHILL '' RELAX '' THEY ARE ONLY MODELS (YES COMPUTER MODELS ) 1ST DAY HERE OF WINTER AND IT'S DOWN TO -6.4 HERE ' WHITE LIKE MY FLUFFING Parrot of a Bird  ' if it ain't going Tits Up or Knockers down ' it is the First day of Winter ' it is a roller coaster of a ride and the charts will show some Beauts and Bad uns -- Just go with the flow and Chillax ' i am Happy with this crisp cold snap ' been 2 ice days here in Chepstow near Tintern and i am Happy with that ' Garden pond is still iced up and also back and front garden is still white and even whiter than last night ' me and the Husband have stocked up on De -Icer and other essentials .. let this Trend continue ' Love the cold winters ... Snuggled up in front of the warm Log Fire ..

Edited December 1, 2016 by A Frayed Knot
speliing

[snowsummer]

Hi all. don't post often as don't feel I'm knowledgeable enough to contribute much yet . prefer to spend my days (or is that entire life!) lurking in the model thread. but even given my limited understanding of all things weather I'm sure I'm right in thinking this uptick in the suns activity is worth a massive moan! hoping someone puts me in my place and tells me I'm so wrong! please??? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

typical GFS for the 2000's, looks zonal from 7th, above average temps, wet and windy, ECM looks a bit better maybe drier, 13° and dry, rare so don't expect ECM to be correct 

[daz_4]

I will take a few days off from model watching. Some depressing days coming up I guess  Anyway, this is how it looks outside right now so this December is already better then in 2015.

[jvenge]

19 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I will take a few days off from model watching. Some depressing days coming up I guess  Anyway, this is how it looks outside right now so this December is already better then in 2015.

Quite right. Winter didn't arrive at all until the last few days of December last year and only then for a month or so. At least this time there isn't a raging PV and a wild looking Atlantic, so even if the deep freeze many seek doesn't come to pass, you can at least take comfort in something seasonal, whatever seasonal is for you :-)

 

[Summer Sun]

A lot of patience might be required over the next few weeks

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

A lot of patience might be required over the next few weeks

What does he use for that basis though? The only model that I think he can be looking at is the EPS 46 and then only looking at the control run, as that is a horror show for those looking for cold. The ensemble mean shows something quite different. Regular ECM is only out to T240, GFS changing its FI output every run.

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

If this winter is "front-loaded", i.e. the current cold spell is as good as it's going to get, and the rest of winter will be either zonal jet-driven or a Euro high set-up, I hate to think how warm it'll be by February!

Edited December 1, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[MidnightSnow]

I'm going to have a punt and say that when we get to mid-december, the potential for cold will then be around xmas and new years. 

[pegg24]

44 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I'm going to have a punt and say that when we get to mid-december, the potential for cold will then be around xmas and new years. 

Then after that middle of January lol.  and so on untill we give up in March. lol

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, pegg24 said:

Then after that middle of January lol.  and so on untill we give up in March. lol

Yup LOL.

"We still have the whole of January and February yet. Cold rarely delivers in December anyway. Chin up coldies, there's lots to be positive about!"

......

"Snow in March isn't out of the question, lets not forget 2013 guys."

 

[northwestsnow]

Think its fair to say the front loaded winter is going down the kazi at a rate of knots.

What a suprise...not.

[Day 10]

SHAPED!!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think its fair to say the front loaded winter is going down the kazi at a rate of knots.

What a suprise...not.

Yep no sleet/snow mentioned in the METO next 6-30 days anymore either, been nearly 4 years since the last snowfall over 1cm, absolutely shocking! 

[Seasonality]

So much butthurt in here.

 

[Mapantz]

Nothing to moan or ramp about from me!

It has been a very enjoyable past few days under this high pressure. Four frosts in a row, amazing blue skies, two consecutive days with minimums of -4.7°C - A maximum of 3.7°C and fog lingering all day..

This afternoon..

Now..

These are rare times in the Purbeck microclimate! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Think its fair to say the front loaded winter is going down the kazi at a rate of knots.

What a suprise...not.

never any expectation from me, post 2000, everyone I speak to knows winters are getting milder and snow is becoming less common, basing it on todays GFS 12Z, it's mild for the foreseeable future, what's new 2000's suck, SIGH!

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

never any expectation from me, post 2000, everyone I speak to knows winters are getting milder and snow is becoming less common, basing it on todays GFS 12Z, it's mild for the foreseeable future, what's new 2000's suck, SIGH!

Lol what did you do in the run of colder winters then? Pretend it wasn't happening? So are you Ian Brown then? The modern winter lol

Edited December 1, 2016 by Seasonality

[Frost HoIIow]

11 hours ago, jvenge said:

Quite right. Winter didn't arrive at all until the last few days of December last year and only then for a month or so. At least this time there isn't a raging PV and a wild looking Atlantic, so even if the deep freeze many seek doesn't come to pass, you can at least take comfort in something seasonal, whatever seasonal is for you :-)

 

"only then for a month" hahaha , a month of cold would be classed as a very good Winter here in the UK. It is rare to even get a couple of weeks of it never mind a month.

[Seasonality]

14 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

"only then for a month" hahaha , a month of cold would be classed as a very good Winter here in the UK. It is rare to even get a couple of weeks of it never mind a month.

UK wins prize for worst climate in Europe. Republic of Ireland tied for worst.

[iapennell]

22 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe realism creeping in, never to underestimate the Atlantic in Dec! no wrist slashing from me, I expect the Atlantic every year, still amazed though at first 5 days, I didn't expect HP in Dec

Refer to the prediction I made for the winter back in October: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86410-winter-20162017-preliminary-prediction/

The warmth of the NE Atlantic, the QBO being Westerly (quite strongly at 30 mb but also westerly at 50 mb through both September and October), and to add to that the likely strong baroclinic temperature/pressure gradient between the warmer than usual northern North Atlantic and the (become) very cold NE Canada and Greenland- not to mention, of course, the fact that strengthening NE Trade Winds in the tropics and subtropics going into winter (because of the cooling subtropical continents and oceans) results in an increase in the Westerly AAM of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation: That means there is a corresponding need for stronger Westerlies in higher latitudes to counter-balance the tropical and subtropical easterlies by removing this accumulated Westerly AAM (again through friction with the underlying surface).

Again, these westerlies are going to align with the depressions forming along these major baroclinic zones and with warmth over the northern North Atlantic these depressions will be fuelled by extra moisture and latent heat of condensation so the Westerlies will be quite strong. All that can be certain is that these depressions will travel a bit further north than usual allowing some cold dry weather (with night frosts) over Britain (much as has been seen already), but it would be naíve to think cold dry and frosty weather (with high-pressure in charge) would persist throughout the winter and that deep depressions would not bring spells of rain, strong west or SW winds and mild temperatures for a good deal of time. A few did get carried away by blocking highs and snow-cover over Eurasia and are now facing a reality check; higher-latitude Westerlies almost always assert themselves strongly in December over and west of Britain (Decembers 2008-2010 were very unusual) and warmer than usual waters north of the UK make it more (rather than less) likely that Westerlies will predominate. Despite sea-ice being seasonally well below the normal, it's current extent is still close to the long-term normal for the second week of November- and in most Novembers' past that was enough ice with the become very cold Greenland/NE Canada (with sea-surface temperatures just above average in the northern North Atlantic) to create the necessary baroclinicity to generate deep depressions moving north-eastwards in the vicinity of Iceland.

To paraphrase the above, it is the tendency towards strong baroclinicity between Greenland/the Arctic and the North Atlantic combined with the constraints of the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum that results in a Corollary that the increased strength and extent of tropical, subtropical and Polar Easterlies at this time of year must be counterbalanced by stronger Westerlies elsewhere that (taken together) must not be underestimated. The North Atlantic, being a large body of relatively warm water extending to high latitudes and juxtaposed with very cold frozen Arctic wastes just a bit further to the north of it, is simply placed in the right position to assist the development of frequent and strong cyclogenesis.    

I am not predicting a colder than normal December this winter and though I did provide an update knocking about 1.5C off my November prediction for England and Wales and 1C off December I see no reason to amend it further: I predicted that we would get a good deal of mild and wet weather in December in interspersed with some dry frosty weather and the most recent outlooks (notwithstanding that November has actually been a degree colder than usual) seem to vindicate these predictions.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cool Ian, find your forecasts accurate, let's hope we get drier spells as lows track further north, and no floods

[I remember Atlantic 252]

oh well, shorts out, maybe flip flops too, some of these charts by all models remind me of last Dec