Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i only look as far as the noaa 500mb charts - so 2 weeks. other then that its guessing based on past patterns.  all modelling suggests westerly average weather after wednesday. now its true these can change

But you have to acknowledge that this has been a year of unusual weather and synoptic anomalies thus far.

Using historical data to work out the near-term weather in 2018 is probably about as good as asking a passing bumblebee what he/she thinks will happen in two week’s time.

I look forward to the late summer as higher sea temps mean a better chance of imports from the continent, and it’s coming up to the end of the mad school holidays - which means cheaper trips abroad for us

Edited August 5, 2018 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Super_Uwe]

So plenty of support for cooler and more unsettled weather for the vast majority (particularly the SW of England later this week), but to be honest the Met update longer term doesn't look too bad?

I can live with high teens/low twenties and mixtures of sunny spells and rain. Chuck in a few thunderstorms over the next few weeks and I'd have nothing to complain about for summer 2018!

[cheese]

5 hours ago, markyo said:

25c is more that hot enough for most,anything over that and yes activity outdoors,especially strenuous becomes uncomfortable many find.It's all about being comfortable on that we are all different. Personally anything over 25c and i stay indoors,just find it much more bearable.

And the majority of people will stay indoors if it's cool and wet, including children - that doesn't make them 'little darlings' as someone suggested. Let's put it this way - you see a lot more people outside when it's 30C and sunny than when it's 18C and raining. It's 27C and sunny today and once again lots of people outside enjoying themselves. If the current model output is correct then I will bet good money on this time next week having very few people outside. In fact, next weekend is currently looking very poor indeed (though all liable to change  and hopefully it does).

Edited August 5, 2018 by cheese

[Wimbledon88]

I see the met and the more level headed posters on the mod thread going for a major pattern change with wind and rain for all. Lead us nicely into autumn.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Thought summer finished 31st August  writing off three weeks of summer at end of first week ,since when has any computer model been accurate after a few days ahead.People think the virtual weather world is the real one

Mushy is different to most people in that his idea of summer is almost exclusively based around daylight and fauna. Personally, I couldn't care less if the swifts have gone or if the lilies have finished, because I am neither a bird nor a flower. I just care about the weather.

Edited August 5, 2018 by cheese

[Djdazzle]

14 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I see the met and the more level headed posters on the mod thread going for a major pattern change with wind and rain for all. Lead us nicely into autumn.

Errrr? Don’t think so.

[markyo]

47 minutes ago, cheese said:

you see a lot more people outside when it's 30C and sunny than when it's 18C and raining.

Well that's because its raining! Sunny and 18c will probably see just as many out if not more than 30c. Nobody could call sat in 18c in the sun cold or even cool! There is a change coming but nothing that could be called poor over several days. Just normal UK summer weather at last,long over due. Each day it could change,something sadly missing this summer.

Edited August 5, 2018 by markyo

[mushymanrob]

29 minutes ago, cheese said:

Mushy is different to most people in that his idea of summer is almost exclusively based around daylight and fauna. Personally, I couldn't care less if the swifts have gone or if the lilies have finished, because I am neither a bird nor a flower. I just care about the weather.

Summer to me is an assault on the senses, its not based on sunshine and heat alone. So whilst we can get late heat, its only part of the banquet that is true summer to me. 

Seeing the greenery and flora

Hearing the screech of the swifts

Smelling the scents of the blossoms

Feeling the warm air on bare skin..

Sorry guys, im alive ! Lol .  So even if we do get more heat, its only half of the meal. 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, markyo said:

Well that's because its raining! Sunny and 18c will probably see just as many out if not more than 30c. Nobody could call sat in 18c in the sun cold or even cool! There is a change coming but nothing that could be called poor over several days. Just normal UK summer weather at last,long over due. Each day it could change,something sadly missing this summer.

The problem is that in summer it’s very unusual to get sunny days in the high teens in the south.

Edited August 5, 2018 by Djdazzle

[cheese]

21 minutes ago, markyo said:

Well that's because its raining! Sunny and 18c will probably see just as many out if not more than 30c. Nobody could call sat in 18c in the sun cold or even cool! There is a change coming but nothing that could be called poor over several days. Just normal UK summer weather at last,long over due. Each day it could change,something sadly missing this summer.

18C and sunny will feel nice and warm in March or April, typically because they are the first warm-feeling days after winter, but at this time of year? I just can't agree, 18C is not warm in August, regardless of sunshine amounts. Of course, 18C and sunny isn't terrible and you can still go out and do things, but it's certainly not ideal summer weather. You would have to add at least 3 degrees on to that for me to be happy. I maintain that 25C and sunny is just about perfection, especially with low humidity - it's hard to beat those warm days with azure blue skies.

Djdazzle is also correct that sunny, 18C days are not common in summer - typically if it's high teens in July or August then there's a very good chance it's going to be cloudy or wet too. There have been some days at this time of year when it's been sunny and high teens but they are very rare and it's certainly a notable occurrence when it does happen.

And to be honest, very few people want changeable/typical UK weather - you might want that and fair enough, but there's a reason loads of people leave the UK every year to get away from its climate.. most people don't like it. It's usually not warm enough, or reliable enough. The only kind of change I want in summer is the occasional thunderstorm to liven things up - otherwise I want every day to be warm and reasonably sunny (asking for a lot in the UK, I know, but you can always hope).

Edited August 5, 2018 by cheese

[Badgers01]

25 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Errrr? Don’t think so.

"Becoming fresher for all on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers"  is the headline from the met office - whether it lasts or not is still up for grabs but I think most would agree we are in for a pattern change by mid week.. 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

"Becoming fresher for all on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers"  is the headline from the met office - whether it lasts or not is still up for grabs but I think most would agree we are in for a pattern change by mid week.. 

Not arguing with that.  He said major pattern change and intimated that it will last and lead us into Autumn. Which is misleading.

[cheese]

29 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Summer to me is an assault on the senses, its not based on sunshine and heat alone. So whilst we can get late heat, its only part of the banquet that is true summer to me. 

Seeing the greenery and flora

Hearing the screech of the swifts

Smelling the scents of the blossoms

Feeling the warm air on bare skin..

Sorry guys, im alive ! Lol .  So even if we do get more heat, its only half of the meal. 

I associate many of those things with spring more than summer. Spring is the season of blossom and blooming and swifts returning. Summer, to me, is just the warm/sunny part of the year. Indeed, the arrival of duller green colours in July and August, as opposed to the more vibrant green of early summer and spring, is very much a signal of high summer.

I don't get the 'summer is over' feeling until late September, when the nights become longer than the days and the very first signs of foliage change start appearing. By that point the nights are also becoming appreciably cooler. At least during the first half of September I am very much still in summer mode.

Anyway, I'm going to make the most of the next few days because next weekend is looking like an absolute washout. I sincerely hope the output changes by then. Average weather is okay, but wet/windy weather can do one. Those wanting that kind of weather can wait until October or November, and they'll have a good 4 or 5 months of such conditions (as opposed to the mere 2 months of warm, sunny weather we have enjoyed).

Edited August 5, 2018 by cheese

[markyo]

31 minutes ago, cheese said:

18C and sunny will feel nice and warm in March or April, typically because they are the first warm-feeling days after winter, but at this time of year? I just can't agree, 18C is not warm in August, regardless of sunshine amounts. Of course, 18C and sunny isn't terrible and you can still go out and do things, but it's certainly not ideal summer weather. You would have to add at least 3 degrees on to that for me to be happy. I maintain that 25C and sunny is just about perfection, especially with low humidity - it's hard to beat those warm days with azure blue skies.

Djdazzle is also correct that sunny, 18C days are not common in summer - typically if it's high teens in July or August then there's a very good chance it's going to be cloudy or wet too. There have been some days at this time of year when it's been sunny and high teens but they are very rare and it's certainly a notable occurrence when it does happen.

And to be honest, very few people want changeable/typical UK weather - you might want that and fair enough, but there's a reason loads of people leave the UK every year to get away from its climate.. most people don't like it. It's usually not warm enough, or reliable enough. The only kind of change I want in summer is the occasional thunderstorm to liven things up - otherwise I want every day to be warm and reasonably sunny (asking for a lot in the UK, I know, but you can always hope).

I get your view totally,it's just after 2 months of static,relentless weather i for one are yearning for that change. Please i don't want any washout,no howling gales,no cold temps but a pleasant mixture of weather. For me 18 to 20c and sunny is far far more usable than anything over 25c for both working and enjoying time out and about. Yes unbroken sunshine at those temps in this country is rare but even with some cloud outdoor activities away from the beach are just as comfortable if not more so i feel.

[mushymanrob]

36 minutes ago, cheese said:

I associate many of those things with spring more than summer. Spring is the season of blossom and blooming and swifts returning. Summer, to me, is just the warm/sunny part of the year. Indeed, the arrival of duller green colours in July and August, as opposed to the more vibrant green of early summer and spring, is very much a signal of high summer.

I don't get the 'summer is over' feeling until late September, when the nights become longer than the days and the very first signs of foliage change start appearing. By that point the nights are also becoming appreciably cooler. At least during the first half of September I am very much still in summer mode.

Anyway, I'm going to make the most of the next few days because next weekend is looking like an absolute washout. I sincerely hope the output changes by then. Average weather is okay, but wet/windy weather can do one. Those wanting that kind of weather can wait until October or November, and they'll have a good 4 or 5 months of such conditions (as opposed to the mere 2 months of warm, sunny weather we have enjoyed).

well the swifts dont arrive until may, lol.. but their screeching is for me 'the' sound of summer. i look around now and all i see is decay starting, and lower sun/shorter days... each to their own though, i wish i could get as much pleasure out of mid-late august and september as you do... but i cant.. especially after my lilies and jasmine have finished.

[Northernlights]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Summer to me is an assault on the senses, its not based on sunshine and heat alone. So whilst we can get late heat, its only part of the banquet that is true summer to me. 

Seeing the greenery and flora

Hearing the screech of the swifts

Smelling the scents of the blossoms

Feeling the warm air on bare skin..

Sorry guys, im alive ! Lol .  So even if we do get more heat, its only half of the meal. 

We stiil have swifts in the eaves of the house and buddlias are only just in full bloom but I agree most plant life is about four  weeks ahead of normal here with the countryside bathed in the golden colours of September. We are planning to start harvesting spring barley this week three weeks ahead of normal in spite of late sowing in mid April.

After a humid warm day it has just started to rain at 19c.This will certainly help the farmer I saw ploughing yesterday in clouds of dust. The plough metal must have been very hot and wearing very fast

 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Northernlights

[cheese]

35 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well the swifts dont arrive until may, lol.. but their screeching is for me 'the' sound of summer. i look around now and all i see is decay starting, and lower sun/shorter days... each to their own though, i wish i could get as much pleasure out of mid-late august and september as you do... but i cant.. especially after my lilies and jasmine have finished.

April is when they start arriving I'm pretty sure, or at least that's what the RSPB website says. They were late this year.

[Paul]

This thread is going to be locked now, as it's use has changed over recent months. And as much of the discussion is crossed over with other threads, combining those into one place will make for a better, broader conversation. 

The majority of posts are more general weather/summer related, which is well covered over in the summer thread here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89703-summer-2018-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

Some posts in here are still model related, but the vast majority of those would fit fine in the main model thread, so if you have thoughts about the model output, please post them in there:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90241-model-output-discussion-summer-rolls-on/

This closure of the model banter thread will most likely be temporary, and it will return again later in the year, as and when the need arises.