Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

well weather like that is common in the states and they have infrastructure set up to cope with it? what do we have?

... a lack of weather above 25C... 

[knocker]

A better tend on last nights EC46 with temps above average from the beginning of next week for most of May, well at least until around the 23rd

[Ice Man 85]

Game, set and match. Any hopes of pleasant non-humid temps are dead.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Ice Man 85

[stainesbloke]

Some very nice model output today, if you like warmth and sunshine, like I do. After the vile, freezing crap of the last few days, it needs to warm up, asap. Hopefully, it’ll be a decent spell of usable weather. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Game, set and match. Any hopes of pleasant non-humid temps are dead.

first bit of that reminds me of 2 months tomorrow! 

not sure about 2nd bit, GFS is pants, just like our last warm spell, 3 days, then back to 10 degrees and cold wind

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

first bit of that reminds me of 2 months tomorrow! 

not sure about 2nd bit, GFS is pants, just like our last warm spell, 3 days, then back to 10 degrees and cold wind

Well I don't call mid 20s+ "pleasant". It is impossible to get pleasant temps from high pressure outside the winter in this country. I'll keep saying that until I'm proven wrong.

Would charts being shown 2 weeks+ away verify in the winter? No. The models would drop them after entertaining the idea for a day or 2. Warm charts though, they show, they stay, they get worse.

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well I don't call mid 20s+ "pleasant". It is impossible to get pleasant temps from high pressure outside the winter in this country. I'll keep saying that until I'm proven wrong.

Would charts being shown 2 weeks+ away verify in the winter? No. The models would drop them after entertaining the idea for a day or 2. Warm charts though, they show, they stay, they get worse.

We've had high pressure with temps in the high teens and low 20s. 

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

We've had high pressure with temps in the high teens and low 20s. 

No chance of that from May onwards.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mid 20's great, would like it every day this summer. 30 though not pleasant, and unnecessary

[Matthew.]

17-25c if it’s sunny is my preference but not much wind

Edited May 1, 2018 by Matthew.

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mid 20's great, would like it every day this summer. 30 though not pleasant, and unnecessary

mid 20s are 23-27. you can really call 27 that much different from 30?

[SizzlingHeat]

Ecm mean looks fantastic for very warm weather. The mean shows a solid +12c isotherm Sunday and Monday with 1025-1030 pressure.

Combine that with may sunshine and temps would be no doubt soaring to the mid-high twenties.

Rest of the mean looks good throughout the week, in contrast to the GFS but much more akin to the GEM.

The mean out to 168 shows 1020 pressure widely across the country so a strong signal for pressure to remain high.

Thankfully, the JMA is a lesser model and completely at odds with the majority of the output this evening.

Roll on the early summer sunshine. Fantastic!

Edited May 1, 2018 by SizzlingHeat

[Ice Man 85]

38 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Ecm mean looks fantastic for very warm weather. The mean shows a solid +12c isotherm Sunday and Monday with 1025-1030 pressure.

Combine that with may sunshine and temps would be no doubt soaring to the mid-high twenties.

Rest of the mean looks good throughout the week, in contrast to the GFS but much more akin to the GEM.

The mean out to 168 shows 1020 pressure widely across the country so a strong signal for pressure to remain high.

Thankfully, the JMA is a lesser model and completely at odds with the majority of the output this evening.

Roll on the early summer sunshine. Fantastic!

Can't call the UKMO a lesser model and its at odds with the ECM after sunday (+4 850s on monday). GFS calls time on the peak of the crap on tuesday. Since nobody takes the GEM seriously, its the ECM thats the oddball.

[SizzlingHeat]

18 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Can't call the UKMO a lesser model and its at odds with the ECM after sunday (+4 850s on monday). GFS calls time on the peak of the crap on tuesday. Since nobody takes the GEM seriously, its the ECM thats the oddball.

The GFS was one of the coldest and wettest amongst its ensemble members. Many of the perturbations are very similar to the ECM op and indeed mean. 

Certainly last summer the GEM was the trendsetter in terms of very warm weather and the fact it hasn't, neither the ECM backed down, should be noteworthy. 

I would therefore suggest the most likely outcome would be temps ranging from mid to perhaps high twenties later this bank holiday weekend, perhaps but not conclusively reducing to the lower twenties by this time next week.

However, the GFS operational has been all over the place today alone and although has shown the breakdown coming in by next Tuesday, it still doesn't rule out temps in mid to high twenties on Sunday and Monday in particular with many ensemble members keeping the 850s at or above 10c for some days after that. 

The UKMO, although slightly cooler still has 850s of 8-10c across the south on Sunday and 6-8c quite widely on Monday. So still mid twenties on Sunday and perhaps still 21-23c across the south on Monday.

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The GFS was one of the coldest and wettest amongst its ensemble members. Many of the perturbations are very similar to the ECM op and indeed mean. 

Certainly last summer the GEM was the trendsetter in terms of very warm weather and the fact it hasn't, neither the ECM backed down, should be noteworthy. 

I would therefore suggest the most likely outcome would be temps ranging from mid to perhaps high twenties later this bank holiday weekend, perhaps but not conclusively reducing to the lower twenties by this time next week.

However, the GFS operational has been all over the place today alone and although has shown the breakdown coming in by next Tuesday, it still doesn't rule out temps in mid to high twenties on Sunday and Monday in particular with many ensemble members keeping the 850s at or above 10c for some days after that. 

The UKMO, although slightly cooler still has 850s of 8-10c across the south on Sunday and 6-8c quite widely on Monday. So still mid twenties on Sunday and perhaps still 21-23c across the south on Monday.

GEM certainly was a trendsetter last summer. I said no to the crap that was supposed to show up mid July and the rest is history

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mid 20's great, would like it every day this summer. 30 though not pleasant, and unnecessary

Yeah and thankfully rare around here, if it wasn't I wouldn't live here. If I enjoyed those temps regularly I would live in France or Spain.

[B87]

Looks like we might actually see our first sunnier than average May since 2011 here!!

[Ice Man 85]

GFS shows the wheels coming off. Crap doesn't even last until monday with the high being shoved away. God bless its heart. Whats better is that it has support. Mean comes down much earlier too. Maybe a trend?

[Milhouse]

I like my summer evenings pleasant and warm too so if we need mid to high 20s in order to achieve it then so be it. 'Cool' days in summer can feel warm in the height of the day but as the sun sets it gets decidedly chilly. Having to put an extra layer on just isnt 'summer' for me. 

[cheese]

15 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

No chance of that from May onwards.

Yes, there is. The forecast for here currently just shows temps in the high teens, perhaps low 20s - I assume it's similar or even lower for Skelmersdale. You can't honestly complain about that kind of weather surely? Nobody in the world thinks 20C is too hot.

And I consider mid 20s 24-26 - nothing wrong with that. A sunny, 25C day is to be cherished. Not sure why you'd want cloudy, wet, windy weather over that. 

Edited May 2, 2018 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

13 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

GEM certainly was a trendsetter last summer. I said no to the crap that was supposed to show up mid July and the rest is history

If GEM is a trend setter with this spell we are in for a treat

[severe snowstorm]

2 hours ago, Milhouse said:

I like my summer evenings pleasant and warm too so if we need mid to high 20s in order to achieve it then so be it. 'Cool' days in summer can feel warm in the height of the day but as the sun sets it gets decidedly chilly. Having to put an extra layer on just isnt 'summer' for me. 

We certainly don't require daytime temps in the high 20s to achieve pleasant evenings. We only reached around 23c a couple of weeks ago and the evening was still perfectly comfortable and warm for sitting out in a t-shirt and enjoying a cold beer.

[Milhouse]

2 hours ago, Dexter said:

We certainly don't require daytime temps in the high 20s to achieve pleasant evenings. We only reached around 23c a couple of weeks ago and the evening was still perfectly comfortable and warm for sitting out in a t-shirt and enjoying a cold beer.

Nothing wrong with 23c maxes imo. Im light winds it can feel very pleasant without the stifling feel of 30c+. Fortunately as we progress towards mid summer the nighttime minima also rise to a point where single digit minima are something of a rarity. 

[johnholmes]

Sad that there is an element with a few in here for  personal comments and preferences to be given more words than actually trying to review what any particular model is showing.