Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

Still looking pretty good in the medium term albeit the position of the ridge/trough is quite critical. The EPS has both a tad further east.

[NUT]

Not normally a warm weather fan but see some of the charts hinting at something. Would LOVE for it to come off for once (start of my holiday not this saturday coming one after that)

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly this morning continuing to look okay.

[Milhouse]

Not bad at all this morning and a ray of light at the end of the tunnel on a dismal and dank day. The Ecm looks stunning with the dark reds flooding the UK

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

The December in the Midlands was great.  The snow in Feb was fun, but March and early April was a drag, leaving me longing for some prolonged high pressure. 

Next week looks like it's delivering the goodies, with ECM 240 showing high pressure to our west.  So I now feel confident to wave a cheery bye bye to cold weather and snow for the next 7-8 months.

Edited April 10, 2018 by BlueSkies_do_I_see
spelling errors

[kent]

On ‎10‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 20:32, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

The December in the Midlands was great.  The snow in Feb was fun, but March and early April was a drag, leaving me longing for some prolonged high pressure. 

Next week looks like it's delivering the goodies, with ECM 240 showing high pressure to our west.  So I now feel confident to wave a cheery bye bye to cold weather and snow for the next 7-8 months.

Beautiful day at long last. Now for some gardening.

[cheese]

A certain someone has awoken from hibernation to p**s on our chips. No prizes for guessing who.

Edited April 21, 2018 by cheese

[MP-R]

Not much to say on the models at the moment other than the end of the April / start of May at least is looking showery at best and probably on the cool side. Nothing too unusual there I guess - I'm sure plenty of opportunities for April showers, which seem to be more common in May anyway nowadays. 

[draztik]

7 hours ago, MP-R said:

Not much to say on the models at the moment other than the end of the April / start of May at least is looking showery at best and probably on the cool side. Nothing too unusual there I guess - I'm sure plenty of opportunities for April showers, which seem to be more common in May anyway nowadays. 

All very normal! It would seem this recent hot spell has spoilt a lot of folk, who are now seeking continental flows.. looking for corrections, chasing unicorns. 

Silly season has started early. 

[cheese]

For my part of the world, May is the sunniest month of the year. Not sure if early May tends to be more unsettled but May as a whole is generally quite settled. June is more unsettled on average - return of the westerlies and all that.

Next week is looking rather normal for the time of year - can't complain too much. At least it looks (largely) dry and reasonably sunny. After next week is where my concern lies  - this spring has already been exceptionally wet so the last thing we need is more excessive rainfall.

Edited April 22, 2018 by cheese

[cheese]

2 hours ago, draztik said:

All very normal! It would seem this recent hot spell has spoilt a lot of folk, who are now seeking continental flows.. looking for corrections, chasing unicorns. 

Silly season has started early. 

Yeah, shocking - people look for weather that they want. I would never have expected that on here.

[Ice Man 85]

33 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah, shocking - people look for weather that they want. I would never have expected that on here.

Isn't he doing the same thing? Too much mob mentality on here. Go against the crowd and you'll pay for it.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

For my part of the world, May is the sunniest month of the year. Not sure if early May tends to be more unsettled but May as a whole is generally quite settled. June is more unsettled on average - return of the westerlies and all that.

Next week is looking rather normal for the time of year - can't complain too much. At least it looks (largely) dry and reasonably sunny. After next week is where my concern lies  - this spring has already been exceptionally wet so the last thing we need is more excessive rainfall.

Probably an element of national variation. May is not a reliably settled month here (not that I'm complaining) with 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2010 standing out as experiencing settled conditions for more than half of the month. Many Mays in my lifetime have been more westerly than some people on N-W would have you believe, and June has more often than not produced the goods as the jet moves north (probably bringing less clement weather conditions to the northern half of the UK). May was actually my most thundery month of the year in the 2000s.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, MP-R said:

Probably an element of national variation. May is not a reliably settled month here (not that I'm complaining) with 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2010 standing out as experiencing settled conditions for more than half of the month. Many Mays in my lifetime have been more westerly than some people on N-W would have you believe, and June has more often than not produced the goods as the jet moves north (probably bringing less clement weather conditions to the northern half of the UK). May was actually my most thundery month of the year in the 2000s.

May is  generally the most settled month for the west coast of northern England and particularly the western isles of Scotland 

[B87]

April here always seems to be more settled than May.

In a normal year, July and August are more settled than June. In recent years, June, July and September are all more settled than August.

[cheese]

4 hours ago, MP-R said:

Probably an element of national variation. May is not a reliably settled month here (not that I'm complaining) with 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2010 standing out as experiencing settled conditions for more than half of the month. Many Mays in my lifetime have been more westerly than some people on N-W would have you believe, and June has more often than not produced the goods as the jet moves north (probably bringing less clement weather conditions to the northern half of the UK). May was actually my most thundery month of the year in the 2000s.

I think May does tend be the sunniest month in more northern areas, and this is very pronounced in areas like Cumbria and western Scotland which really benefit from a quieter Atlantic. At my nearest weather station, May has 211 hours of sun, compared to 206 for July.

May is also our second driest month of the year on average (February is the driest). 

Interestingly enough, August is the wettest month of the year on average here, but is also the third sunniest after May and July (August and September are both sunnier than June in percentage terms here). I think showers and downpours are more common in August.

Edited April 23, 2018 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

12 hours ago, draztik said:

All very normal! It would seem this recent hot spell has spoilt a lot of folk, who are now seeking continental flows.. looking for corrections, chasing unicorns. 

Silly season has started early. 

As opposed to the cooler months on here where unicorn chasing is at its most intense and one has to wade through encyclopaedias of hopecasting and emotional melodrama. Must be a year round silly season now.

[78/79]

As long as it stays reasonably dry  I'll be happy , couldn't care less about temperatures really. Not holding my breath around here though.

[draztik]

On 22/04/2018 at 21:23, cheese said:

Yeah, shocking - people look for weather that they want. I would never have expected that on here.

Usual suspects look for heatwaves, ruining the mod thread with constant idiocy! Yet in winter, same folk crying that plummeting temps are killing people....its quite surreal to witness the madness/hypocrisy. 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

Usual suspects look for heatwaves, ruining the mod thread with constant idiocy! Yet in winter, same folk crying that plummeting temps are killing people....its quite surreal to witness the madness/hypocrisy. 

There's extremists in both camps I think  

[Ice Man 85]

10 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

There's extremists in both camps I think  

Most definitely. The MOD thread during the time of the first failed winter easterly was pure tantrums. Led to a few bans I think. Ramping needs to stop. Both silly seasons included. 

[cheese]

17 hours ago, draztik said:

Usual suspects look for heatwaves, ruining the mod thread with constant idiocy! Yet in winter, same folk crying that plummeting temps are killing people....its quite surreal to witness the madness/hypocrisy. 

Not sure anyone's looking for heatwaves specifically. Settled, warm, dry weather - certainly, and it's hardly surprising given how atrociously wet this spring has been. 

And I'm not swayed by the 'x weather kills people' argument, in either summer or winter, as I think this is a weather forum and as such people are often looking for extreme weather - or at least weather that deviates from the usual tedious UK fare. If that upsets people then as per my previous comments you're on the wrong forum. 

Cool weather with rain doesn't excite most people - neither on here nor in real life. You're in a very small minority if that kind of weather floats your boat. Each to their own though.

Edited April 24, 2018 by cheese

[Mokidugway]

52 minutes ago, cheese said:

Not sure anyone's looking for heatwaves specifically. Settled, warm, dry weather - certainly, and it's hardly surprising given how atrociously wet this spring has been. 

And I'm not swayed by the 'x weather kills people' argument, in either summer or winter, as I think this is a weather forum and as such people are often looking for extreme weather - or at least weather that deviates from the usual tedious UK fare. If that upsets people then as per my previous comments you're on the wrong forum. 

Cool weather with rain doesn't excite most people - neither on here nor in real life. You're in a very small minority if that kind of weather floats your boat. Each to their own though.

Cool dreary damp weather kills more people than heatwaves or severe cold ,just by the boredom alone 

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

Not sure anyone's looking for heatwaves specifically. Settled, warm, dry weather - certainly, and it's hardly surprising given how atrociously wet this spring has been. 

And I'm not swayed by the 'x weather kills people' argument, in either summer or winter, as I think this is a weather forum and as such people are often looking for extreme weather - or at least weather that deviates from the usual tedious UK fare. If that upsets people then as per my previous comments you're on the wrong forum. 

Cool weather with rain doesn't excite most people - neither on here nor in real life. You're in a very small minority if that kind of weather floats your boat. Each to their own though.

"warm" is very subjective as is cold. Hence there's plenty of room for misinterpretation.

[cheese]

Sure, but we're not talking about temperatures in the 30s or anything. I'd be fine with sunshine and temps in the teens to be honest. Endless gloom is what really hacks people off.