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On 04/03/2018 at 13:04, MIKE LEVITT said:

big letdown in east Yorkshire,yet again.been a few years now since we had a heavy snowfall.

You can have mine still got plenty....................

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A thaw slowly taking place here. It's snowing again today but tomorrow is forecast to reach 10C and maybe 18C on Sunday.

I've had snow on the ground since 7th February so it's been a decent latter part of winter (it had been very disappointing up to that point).

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Bye bye coldies - Sidney

coldies.thumb.jpg.973f6348c1dc6a468d162b04ade3ee35.jpg

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I have to say that the upcoming model setup looks awful. Although i would like to see a below average CET since March 2012 (it ruined me for other March's) i have much preferred heat. No high pressure in sight though. 

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Yes, vile output. Some of the worst imaginable really.

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I'm still pretty gobsmacked at how easily the block , and cold air was pushed away  to be honest.

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3 hours ago, 78/79 said:

I'm still pretty gobsmacked at how easily the block , and cold air was pushed away  to be honest.

was a great effort though, best E'ly of the large teapot! can't expect it to be like 78-79

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5 hours ago, 78/79 said:

I'm still pretty gobsmacked at how easily the block , and cold air was pushed away  to be honest.

And I’m amazed how quick it wants to come back for round 2 :yahoo:

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And I’m amazed how quick it wants to come back for round 2 :yahoo:

Just as the snow is nearly all gone the ECM throws up snowmageddon here on the 18-19th. Over 40mm of precipitation and all of it snow.

Sure to change of course but let's see if the idea sticks.

Edited by AderynCoch

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Posted (edited)

No big surprise here as this morning's GEFS anomalies follow last night's ext EPS with ridging in mid Atlantic, NW/W upper flow and March going out unsettled with temps still below average. Hopefully not total grot.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.acdf67b536a36ae9fec405f67ff51415.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted (edited)

Tonights longer range BBC forecast stops at Sunday and it looks fairly close to UKMO extended with a southeasterly a bit chillier but nothing desperately cold

ukm2.2018031812_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.png.d4c435e09a362615d3fbfddbf6673c25.thumb.png.a491d6acf3856afc6790d8e1bfb38349.pngUntitled.thumb.png.14d691335992e901d72db7e9f32e4fe2.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tonights longer range BBC forecast stops at Sunday and it looks fairly close to UKMO extended with a southeasterly a bit chillier but nothing desperately cold

ukm2.2018031812_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.png.d4c435e09a362615d3fbfddbf6673c25.thumb.png.a491d6acf3856afc6790d8e1bfb38349.pngUntitled.thumb.png.14d691335992e901d72db7e9f32e4fe2.png

Nothing spring like also.

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As the days get longer winter gets stronger....The beast likes it here looks like

He might have a return ticket

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Posted (edited)

Interesting that this morning's ecm det. run has morphed into something like the EPS mean of last night. "Where will it all end sidney?" " In tears knocker" :shok:

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.32493ffe7a36fe5563f88a16e4b66e77.png

Edited by knocker

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On 09/03/2018 at 19:54, SLEETY said:

And I’m amazed how quick it wants to come back for round 2 :yahoo:

We haven't finished paying for the last one yet. 

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Concern is growing for the welfare of the latest offspring of the 'beast' who was born with a congenital condition. MOD Thread Winter Syndrome (MTWS) for which there is no known cure. It's feared that it's life will be but a couple of days and vigils are being held four times daily in this fraught period.

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ECM has max. temperature of -9C for my location on Sunday with windchill of -20C and heavy snow. Thanks but no thanks. I'm in spring mode already :cray:

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2 hours ago, daz_4 said:

ECM has max. temperature of -9C for my location on Sunday with windchill of -20C and heavy snow. Thanks but no thanks. I'm in spring mode already :cray:

Same here. That would actually beat the recent bitter cold spell in terms of maxima (the best we managed was -7C).

It got up to 18C today. No word of a lie, there was almost a tropical feel in the air when it started belting down in the afternoon, such was the humidity.

This is developing into a quite bonkers March. I wouldn't bet against it being 25C before the month is out.

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Really want some warmer weather.. go away cold.

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7 hours ago, cheese said:

Really want some warmer weather.. go away cold.

agree, but want this beast too, after the beast, wish it could go straight to warm

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree, but want this beast too, after the beast, wish it could go straight to warm

I said the same last time to be fair and I still enjoyed the snow, lol. Maybe this month will be like March 2013? And if we got another summer like 2013 I'd be very happy!

Edited by cheese

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, it changes every 3 hours.

Is there any model that runs that often?

I thought the most frequent was every 6 hours.

 

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maybe you should take the time to look at the key variables before making such assumptions.

With snow the most important things are dew point and air temperature. If T850s are above 0C then things get more complicated but they are not.

Rule of thumb that works much of the time. If the air temperature plus dew point is around 1C or lower in will fall as snow

image.thumb.png.760dba99d95812005b6dc936e9bc1380.png Dew points are around -5C or lower for many
image.thumb.png.7613850ae154a8b64e23a408cd338a71.png Temperatures close to freezing almost everywhere on Sunday, maybe a few areas in the far south could hit 3C

So for everywhere except the far SW the air temp + dew point is below zero. Uppers matter less when we are dealing with continental airmasses.

I don't wish to cause an argument, but this 'rule of thumb' stuff is nonsense when talking about snow dynamics.

A perfect reasoning for this was the last cold spell. I had temperatures of below -2C, dewpoints below -3C and wetbulb temperatures of -2C and snow rapidly became freezing rain.

 

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