Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

January could be snowless for many, as this pain in the ass high to the east looks like staying, we end up on the 'mild side'

This is my worry too, its like one step forwards and two steps back with the models right now. All eyes on the 12z though surely we are going to get a breakthrough somewhere, could be a big one. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is my worry too, its like one step forwards and two steps back with the models right now. All eyes on the 12z though surely we are going to get a breakthrough somewhere, could be a big one. 

prefer it if the Atlantic kinda broke through, GFS has shown quite snowy at times cold low's, but EC hasn't, starting from 15th ish

 

[knocker]

The expected good news continues with the high heading east and continuing to 'lock' in the cold air.

[reef]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I can't help feel the high pressure to the east is playing for a sucker, again. Too many times, its been there dangling a carrot and delivers nothing.

Take the second half of January 2014, will it or won't it? In the end nowt.

Start of January 2016, the carrot was dangled after the December spring of 2015 and it delivered nowt

February 2015

Remember the end of February 2007 and GFS were hinting of an easterly and one ECM op run went for it as well?

Then there was January 2006

We shall see but it could end up chewing up a lot of January for nothing.

Yes, its the classic sinker we seem to get nearly every winter. Even if it managed to be further west with a bit of cold air dragged across it would be cold and dry as the flow would be more south-easterly. All it will do in reality is sit there and slowly sink over Europe as the northern arm of the jet puts pressure on it. You only have to look at the deep cold pouring out from the East coast of the US to know the jet will be strong.

All this high pressure will do is waste another week or two of winter before we get the inevitable zonality. We'll be stuck in no-man's land with little 'weather' to speak of.

[78/79]

Even though I class myself as an  old git , compared to a lot on here , I certainly don't begrudge the youngsters some snow , after all I was around  in the 60's 70's and 80's, and certainly had a lot of fun back then. Compared to nowadays it was pretty bl////dy good.   It would  probably cost me a day or so's wages, ( You can't build below 2 degrees ) but compared to the amount I lose due to the useless poxy rain it would be nothing at all. 

[knocker]

looking at the UKMET T144 with the high over western Russia and a intense thermal gradient in mid Atlantic, with a lot of energy running around the negatively tilted trough you would need to be a member of the Magic Circle to conjure an easterly out of that.

[Weather-history]

51 minutes ago, knocker said:

looking at the UKMET T144 with the high over western Russia and a intense thermal gradient in mid Atlantic, with a lot of energy running around the negatively tilted trough you would need to be a member of the Magic Circle to conjure an easterly out of that.

JUST LIKE THAT!!

Edited January 7, 2018 by Weather-history

[jvenge]

I respect the other thread, unlike the 95%.

So...

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DflWTWG-gTT4&ved=0ahUKEwjV9pzQxcbYAhXnQpoKHRmJCfoQ3ywIMjAB&usg=AOvVaw1agVfHjzRdEgNS1irlznse

[knocker]

A hear a loud drum roll as the excitement mounts once more over an ecm day ten chart. Where will it all end I ask myself? Will we get a plume from the east or the west? Just look at that thermal gradient   Place your bets.......................

Edited January 7, 2018 by knocker

[snowblizzard]

BBC Countryfile Weather - nothing remotely wintry even in the North this week, turning less cold later in the week!

Edited January 7, 2018 by snowblizzard

[shotski]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

looking at the UKMET T144 with the high over western Russia and a intense thermal gradient in mid Atlantic, with a lot of energy running around the negatively tilted trough you would need to be a member of the Magic Circle to conjure an easterly out of that.

May I just remind you that Helsinki is no longer a part of Russia. 

Maybe time for a geography touch up ?

[tinybill]

just watched  country  file  rather quiet  weather fog  to start off then turning mild as the week go on  some  rain just a bit of hill snow in scotland, rain possible at the end  of the week

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

May I just remind you that Helsinki is no longer a part of Russia. 

Maybe time for a geography touch up ?

You may and may I remind you the center of the high is east of Finland unless they have recently adjusted the border. So yes I agree.

[doctor32]

Regardless of weather we see the east or west win out, the sooner the better one of them do, as being stuck in the battle soon is turning out to be boring weather wise (damp, cold, fog and murk) No thank you! 

[doctor32]

15 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just watched  country  file  rather quiet  weather fog  to start off then turning mild as the week go on  some  rain just a bit of hill snow in scotland, rain possible at the end  of the week

Don't think they will be using the most recent data in that forecast as it would have been produced earlier in the day me thinks.

[shotski]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

You may and may I remind you the center of the high is east of Finland unless they have recently adjusted the border. So yes I agree.

Just to confirm, is this the high you refer to Knockski ?

Edited January 7, 2018 by Weather toad

[Dancerwithwings]

39 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Countryfile Weather - nothing remotely wintry even in the North this week, turning less cold later in the week!

To be fair the forecast went to Friday and that's it, the Friday map showed a band of of rain encroaching into Ireland (it was never mentioned what that band was doing or how far it was going)

The winds (arrows) were coming in from the East for the East of the UK and that was it she never mentioned the weekend at all......Left us guessing or methinks there not sure yet

Edited January 7, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[Buzz]

57 minutes ago, knocker said:

A hear a loud drum roll as the excitement mounts once more over an ecm day ten chart. Where will it all end I ask myself? Will we get a plume from the east or the west? Just look at that thermal gradient   Place your bets.......................

Tell me about it. Some people never learn do they?

[SLEETY]

31 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just watched  country  file  rather quiet  weather fog  to start off then turning mild as the week go on  some  rain just a bit of hill snow in scotland, rain possible at the end  of the week

Let’s see tomorrow how accurate that is.They wouldn’t have used the 12z runs.Any forecast 5 days away is liable to change.Did they mention anything about the block holding on at end of week.

very brave call on a Sunday evening saying the Atlantic will,push through.looks on a knife edge to me.

 

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

Just to confirm, is this the high you refer to Knockski ?

No toadstool

Edited January 7, 2018 by knocker

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

No toadstool

Try to have a civilised debate with someone............ ?

whats this ?

reverse thermal gradient 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Weather toad

[Gray-Wolf]

With 2017 the second warmest year in our records I think we need to accept that this renewed warming spurt is gaining strength. The lack of cold out East , compared to other years, means that we have no 'Beast' to hope for and the lack of ice to our north means our direct northerlies track over far more ocean than ever before?

I'm thinking we need hope for Atlantic fronts spilling over cold land surfaces esp. if the low holds some Greenland cold in its core?

[bobbydog]

7 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

With 2017 the second warmest year in our records I think we need to accept that this renewed warming spurt is gaining strength. The lack of cold out East , compared to other years, means that we have no 'Beast' to hope for and the lack of ice to our north means our direct northerlies track over far more ocean than ever before?

I'm thinking we need hope for Atlantic fronts spilling over cold land surfaces esp. if the low holds some Greenland cold in its core?

ah well, hopefully the grand solar minimum will sort that out....?

[Spurry]

BBC going for a jet stream across the country at the end of the week with LPs attacking from the Atlantic , no indication of anything cold

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

ah well, hopefully the grand solar minimum will sort that out....?

If only but I do not think the reduction in solar will be equal to us regaining some of the energy lost to Global dimming? I thing ther grand min saw less than a 2% reduction in solar output last time around whereas NASA put the dimming costing us up to 50% of potential warming so you can see as the Asian atmosphere again becomes clear we will more than offset any drop in solar? And then you have the dark ocean over the Arctic ocean that is now accepting over 80% of the incoming solar where it was once reflecting over 90%.......

Nope! our goose is cooked.