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5 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

Looks like game over for foreseeable future. Before we know it winter will be over. A shame as it looked so positive a few days ago. 

That would be around a week though, new chances for next weekend 

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14 hours ago, mulzy said:

What's the doom and gloom about?  There could be a frost or two in the next week or so - something to look forward to...

 

Will at least see a bit of ice from the waterlogged fields freezing over maybe...

Ah who am I kidding? Since mid December it's been pretty lousy fare here..cold rain don't cut it.

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Can't say I am overly surprised at the turn of events...

Disappointed? Not really...just a sense of resigned acceptance.

When will people start learning to stop getting so overexcited at day 10 jam tomorrow charts?

Treat Jam Tomorrow charts with scepticism and cynicism and you won't go wrong.

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

2012-13 was only 5 years ago and 2014-15 wasn't that bad, it was better than a lot of the winters of 1990s-2000s.

I be interested to know if parts of the Midlands had bigger snowfalls during this winter thus far than during winter 2009-10.  

I can tell you for a fact that the snow that fell here on 10th Dec 17 was deeper than any fall we had at any point during Winter 2009/10.

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7 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I can tell you for a fact that the snow that fell here on 10th Dec 17 was deeper than any fall we had at any point during Winter 2009/10.

That's nice...

Meanwhile, it's been nearly FIVE years for large swatches of the country including me.  FIVE years - incredible stuff!

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Anyone else think this is a great version of how the mood has gone on the Model thread over the last day........ECM being the one falling off the perch!!!!

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

That's nice...

Meanwhile, it's been nearly FIVE years for large swatches of the country including me.  FIVE years - incredible stuff!

Go to the Alps, plenty of snow there this year, unlike recent years.  Although admittedly it's not such a long drive for me as it is for you guys

Edited by ArHu3
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5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

That's nice...

Meanwhile, it's been nearly FIVE years for large swatches of the country including me.  FIVE years - incredible stuff!

But who knows what February will bring, or even this month for that matter (it's only the 5th today with any forecast after the 10th not to be interpreted as gospel I'd have thought) so there's still hope yet I'd imagine. Though I share everyone's frustrations this morning now the outlook has downgraded. Don't worry though even if the real world weather in these lands can't be relied on to bring regular snow the models can be, and I predict it probably won't be too long before one of the big guns starts showing snowmageddon some time soon to at least give us hope again :D.

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I don't contribute to the MOD thread but it's always good value for money!

Reading the Met Office update this morning, regardless of the output it still sounds reasonably encouraging? Quote directly for 9th to 18th Jan 

"We are most likely to see Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west during this period, which will try to erode the cold 'blocked' conditions which have become established across the UK over recent days. Otherwise, there is likely to be plenty of dry weather with some sunshine for most, especially in the east. Frontal systems making limited progress into the west of the UK during the period may bring outbreaks of rain, which may also bring the threat of some snow in places, although there remains a lot of uncertainty. Under clearer skies by night, severe frosts and freezing fog is likely. Temperatures will remain below the average, with perhaps some recovery to near normal temperatures in the west at times."

It could be a lot worse anyway - fingers crossed not too many more buckets of rain for the South West thanks!

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weve had one attempt of a proper cold spell before crimbo, we have another now, if this pattern continues there will be at least one more opportunity by the end of the month, which is the time most likely to deliver a cold spell.

one thing looks obvious, theres no prolonged mild on offer.

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A few people are going to end up with egg on their face in the MOD thread soon. Who? That's yet to be seen. I wonder if those that do end up being wrong will hold their hands up!

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Posted (edited)

Although of course not solving the upcoming detail of the Atlantic/block scenario the overall 500mb  pattern is worth a look via last night's NOAA and this morning's GEFS and EPS anomalies as they are pretty consistent.

Upstream  we have the Canadian vortex, Aleutian low and high cell eastern Arctic with a weakening amplitude across North America and a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic. The key players in our neck of the woods are the negatively tilted trough associated with the Canadian vortex into the NW Atlantic and the vicinity of UK, the European high pressure ridging north and the deep trough eastern Russia associated with the second vortex lobe. Essentially how these align, and with what intensity, will dictate the speed of ingress of eastward bound systems further east across the UK. As we are all aware this what the det. runs are currently battling to resolve. Currently it looks as if the pattern will slowly nudge east with the amplitude of the ridge diminishing thus slowly allowing the Atlantic to get the upper hand. But still quite delicately poised.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.ba85884d464610c9ba6d842c19ad98b4.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.4a814cf2c13bc0f7387d8fba5c4beeab.png610day_03.thumb.gif.a72de5363f72856a3a5665ec0a68c7e4.gif

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

weve had one attempt of a proper cold spell before crimbo, we have another now, if this pattern continues there will be at least one more opportunity by the end of the month, which is the time most likely to deliver a cold spell.

one thing looks obvious, theres no prolonged mild on offer.

another now, not here

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1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

A few people are going to end up with egg on their face in the MOD thread soon. Who? That's yet to be seen. I wonder if those that do end up being wrong will hold their hands up!

probably not, I know who is wrong, 9 letter username, praising ECM, slagging off GFS

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That should of course read deep trough western Russia in my post above.

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More baby steps than a Nursery in the other thread. Meanwhile, former fan favourite GEM is taking size 12 hobnail boots to the block.

gemnh-0-180.png?12

An angry mob is gathering at the Canadian embassy.

 

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Really surprised at how the usual (last 3-4 years)  Atlantic mild SW pattern seems unable to get a grip this winter.

Could it be the Azores High position/influence is not so evident this winter?

Definitely different, perhaps something notable might develop after all?

 

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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

another now, not here

not yet, but high pressure drifting across our north eastwards is certainly a potential for cold. its just not going to settle right, but its close

 

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2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

More baby steps than a Nursery in the other thread. Meanwhile, former fan favourite GEM is taking size 12 hobnail boots to the block.

 

An angry mob is gathering at the Canadian embassy.

 

Apparently an all night vigil is also planned at Shinfield Park.

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Posted (edited)

Not logged on for a few days- what time is the snow due tomorrow? Can’t wait. Presumably there’s not another failed easterly etc this time like all the Graham’s number of times before? :D

Edited by James1979

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Looking forward to international news reports showing epic snowfalls across the uk ,best of luck with that :rofl:

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Probably not something most people have noticed with all the focus on snow but as the models stand there's a very real chance that large parts of the UK will see no precipitation for a good week. 

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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Probably not something most people have noticed with all the focus on snow but as the models stand there's a very real chance that large parts of the UK will see no precipitation for a good week. 

like the sound of that! but wednesday could be wet in this area

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