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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Well you can say what you like, Winter hasn't even started for my southern swathe of the country.

So at the moment this winter is on a par with the last 3, Crepe!! Last winter I had seen a lot of very cold nights already, considerably more than this year.

Let's hope the lost SSW signal returns as quick as it left, although we don't actually need a SSW to get a decent cold spell in the UK... Winter hasn't started for me, so it can't be over!! Loads of time!

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha, agree! Good old 1963. Just like 1966 in football, it isn't going to happen again in our lifetimes but it's still trotted out, year after year. 

63 vs the likelihood of England lifting another world cup??  Hmmmmm, tough one but i'll definitely take 63 as much more probable!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I've been hearing of promising teleconnections for the last four years. they have not delivered.

My view is we don't have a clue from 400 hours out.  Within that tiem there are FI runs that may provide clues and patterns, especially  the nearer they get in time.

And then, if showing from 240 hours into 144 they can provide a corridor of hope. Or despair

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
36 minutes ago, swebby said:

63 vs the likelihood of England lifting another world cup??  Hmmmmm, tough one but i'll definitely take 63 as much more probable!

'66 as more probable, TMW is underestimated

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
5 hours ago, Nick L said:

Absolutely. Anyone dismissing the usefulness of teleconnections is foolish at best, or simply have a lack of understanding about meteorology. Instinct can only go so far! 

Useful for a large land mass like the USA. Not so much for a tiny island like ours. Anyone not realising this has a lack of understanding about Meteorology.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 hours ago, Nick L said:

We've reached desperate times when NAVGEM is being dredged up for comfort. 

Judging from the apparent angst that's broken-out in the MAD thread, the snowBOM will be joining the mighty NAVGEM a little later this evening?:D

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

@Tamara    tbh i have trouble understanding all the teleconnections and how to try to interpret them in relationship to one another and what it eventually signals for us. im possibly not alone in this.

im happy to use the anomaly charts, i understand them better in relationship to the ops, and produce a popular daily blog for my locale based on them. so getting an idea of what lies ahead in the 7-14 day period is in my comfort and knowledge zone.

ill leave the more in depth analysis to you and gp, thats not disrespectful, but you are talking about things outside my comfort zone, and if you are suggesting the likelyhood of a scandinavian block further down the line, thats fine, ill only take any notice of it though when it becomes apparent on the data uses im comfortable with. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

IMO Teleconnections are useful at predicting when we MIGHT see a cold spell, it doesn't guarantee it, EG - you might have a Scandinavian block but severe cold just outside our reach to the East of us or we might even achieve the Easterly with -5c uppers in late Jan and no 'features' and you might get a week of light dustings of graupel on the east coast and people will then say that teleconnective forecasting methods have failed, when they havent, however, when the teleconnections are dead against us EG - Mid winter with an already rampant coupled trop and strat PV, the only way out of it is with a top down SSW but these don't just happen by magic, its usually tropical factors like the MJO becoming active leading to a +ve East Asian Mountain Torque event (I think), poleward flux and disruption to the Strat and then propagation downwards, without this though, you could still get a dumping in my location from a WNWerly (although unlikely). The same people will then say 'see - ive got 8 inches of snow with an unfavourable hemispheric pattern.'

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Don't know why my post was removed but its a fact that the Euro heights are a problem for the UK in terms of getting a good dig of colder air down across the uk next week as things stand..some on here need to lighten up and grow a sense of humour!!:santa-emoji:

Or post in the banter thread for jokes? Not sure why you think your jokes are immune to the rules everyone else follows?

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

IMO Teleconnections are useful at predicting when we MIGHT see a cold spell, it doesn't guarantee it.

Which makes them very similar to gfs runs in far FI.

We've endured four poor winter's previous to this one. On each occasion I'm sure a carefully worded post from the likes of Tamara gave rise to much anticipation of cold weather -but the careful wording ensures she can spin it the other way.

Beating in mind a broken clock is right twice a day, can anyone offer evidence of when looking at teleconnections offered a better way of forecasting the future than looming at FI in the models did? Beyond an average that even the Daily Express can muster!!???

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Which makes them very similar to gfs runs in far FI.

We've endured four poor winter's previous to this one. On each occasion I'm sure a carefully worded post from the likes of Tamara gave rise to much anticipation of cold weather -but the careful wording ensures she can spin it the other way.

Beating in mind a broken clock is right twice a day, can anyone offer evidence of when looking at teleconnections offered a better way of forecasting the future than looming at FI in the models did? Beyond an average that even the Daily Express can muster!!???

Just read her full posts and you will be fine. For some reason, people seem to focus on the potential cold part and ignore the raging jet part.

Also, I haven't yet seen Tamara make a forecast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
3 hours ago, jvenge said:

Just read her full posts and you will be fine. For some reason, people seem to focus on the potential cold part and ignore the raging jet part.

Also, I haven't yet seen Tamara make a forecast. 

I think a lot of it is 'weather psychobabble' phrased in such a way as to be able to give rise to the phrase 'as Tamara alluded to' in later posts whatever actually transpires.

Frankly I don't buy into the awe and adulation afforded to her because I don't think I've ever seen anything turn out in a way she has forecast. Ultimately it boils down much of the time to saying something along the lines of 'the die is about to be cast... it's likely to end up being a number between 1 and 6'!

I've just seen a spell of weather with a reasonable bit of snow which has stuck around for a week. Not brilliant but better than anything we've had inbthe last four years.  My recollection is that just as the models were hinting at this and folk were getting excited, she posted to warn against being too optimistic.   Then, after the models  jad been producing some stellar runs but began to drift away from them, I seem ti recall a post of hers being interpreted to suggest we could have something wonderful in place by Christmas. Just at the point that the models started firming up on Christmas not being anything special.

I have no particular beef with her posts. I just don't understand the reverence that seems to be attached to them.  

Rant over! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
23 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I think a lot of it is 'weather psychobabble' phrased in such a way as to be able to give rise to the phrase 'as Tamara alluded to' in later posts whatever actually transpires.

Frankly I don't buy into the awe and adulation afforded to her because I don't think I've ever seen anything turn out in a way she has forecast. Ultimately it boils down much of the time to saying something along the lines of 'the die is about to be cast... it's likely to end up being a number between 1 and 6'!

I've just seen a spell of weather with a reasonable bit of snow which has stuck around for a week. Not brilliant but better than anything we've had inbthe last four years.  My recollection is that just as the models were hinting at this and folk were getting excited, she posted to warn against being too optimistic.   Then, after the models  jad been producing some stellar runs but began to drift away from them, I seem ti recall a post of hers being interpreted to suggest we could have something wonderful in place by Christmas. Just at the point that the models started firming up on Christmas not being anything special.

I have no particular beef with her posts. I just don't understand the reverence that seems to be attached to them.  

Rant over! :)

Add her to ignore then. It is hardly her fault if people misquote her or people read what they want from the messages. Maybe for some people they just lack the brainpower to understand as well.

For example, because I think you write nonsense, I'm just adding you to ignore. Everyone is happy then.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Add her to ignore then. It is hardly her fault if people misquote her or people read what they want from the messages. Maybe for some people they just lack the brainpower to understand as well.

For example, because I think you write nonsense, I'm just adding you to ignore. Everyone is happy then.

Sorry but personally im getting tired of people saying we have misquoted. I have read some of the posts from a week ago in the model discussion thread and there is no doubts some were predicting an E,ly via heights rises to our NE between Xmas into the New Year and some saying it could happen even earlier.

This is what I said on the same day 12th Dec.

"In my opinion we haven't been seeing wild swings in the output in recent days. Actually the models have been consistent in bringing us a return to milder SW,lys.

Personally I think members should forget about the predicted Scandi HP and focus on just what the models are currently predicting. The reason I say this is because even towards the latter stages of the GFS we couldn't be further away from an E,ly via a Scandi HP if we tried. If anything any future cold spells in distant F.I are more likely to come from a NW/N,ly."

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88969-model-output-discussion-winter-proper-underway/?page=19

Like I say I have no personal gripe with Tamara, GP or anyone else who uses Teleconnections. I do however question the use in long range forecasts and to be honest im sceptical of any LRF whatever methods are used. Just look at the difference between the ECM this morning and yesterday. if supercomputers struggle at just 10 days we have no chance of producing an accurate forecast. I feel some latch on teleconnections as a straw to clutch when the output is poor.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I have no particular beef with her posts. I just don't understand the reverence that seems to be attached to them.  

 

you could say that for many... but im not so sure that her (or anyones)  posts would be 'revered' if she made a strong case for a bartlet driven mild winter with no chance of cold.

personally, i have respect for those attempting to interpret a very complex dynamic whether they are right or wrong, as long as they are unbiased lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

you could say that for many... but im not so sure that her (or anyones)  posts would be 'revered' if she made a strong case for a bartlet driven mild winter with no chance of cold.

personally, i have respect for those attempting to interpret a very complex dynamic whether they are right or wrong, as long as they are unbiased lol.

I don't have any problem at all with what GP and Tamara are doing...which is, IMO, merely keeping us all updated with how the teleconnections seem to be developing...? It ain't the state of the teleconnections that's causing the 'problems', it's the wild, weird and wonderful extrapolations the usual suspects like to infer...

IMO, it doesn't really matter so much, which particular state the teleconnections are in, UK winters will still be mild/average more often than not?

No need to 'shoot the messengers'?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Wish I could understand Tamara's posts Ed!

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs

The amount of disrespect on here for people who actually try and understand and analyse the atmosphere and how what is happening in the atmosphere at the time is going to effect the northern hemisphere going forward makes me wonder why the likes of GP bother posting on here at all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I've just seen a spell of weather with a reasonable bit of snow which has stuck around for a week. Not brilliant but better than anything we've had inbthe last four years.  My recollection is that just as the models were hinting at this and folk were getting excited, she posted to warn against being too optimistic.   Then, after the models  jad been producing some stellar runs but began to drift away from them, I seem ti recall a post of hers being interpreted to suggest we could have something wonderful in place by Christmas. Just at the point that the models started firming up on Christmas not being anything special.

 

You need to go back and read what was actually said. The mid atlantic ridge scenario as early winter in a Nina background state was explained well before it happened, and the warnings were there to help people realise it wasnt a gateway to winter 1963 nirvana. The snow that came from that event was probably above expectations for some regions given the marginality of the cold which, for once, worked in favour of coldies in the Midlands, but the warnings were correct because the ridge faded as expected and the westerly phase that was repeatedly stated by GP and Tamara as the likely pattern moving forward has arrived. Any hope that it would hang on to affect the pre Xmas period was constantly flagged as an outside bet - as has proved to be the case.

The problem with the MOD thread is we have some who dwell on every single run in detail, others who scan for ensemble guidance and others who rely on some kind of gut experience which is likely, inevitably, to drift towards westerly given solutions given we are in the UK. Some are hoping for snow, a few are hoping to dash hopes of snow, and a handful try and sit on the fence. The bottom line is that weather forecasting is fiendishly difficult - take a look at Cohen's blog today... quite different in places to what he has said in his previous two. Take a look at high powered computer predictions of tropical convection activity - they are frankly so far off at times there is little point reading them. 

It would probably be useful therefore for all who read GP and Tamara to understand what they are trying to do. GP uses more analogues and is more prepared to gamble... Tamara is very cautious at using anything other than observed raw data - but both are trying to put a human angle on the raw data that is fed into NWP to produce the charts that so many clammer over. Both are big AAM junkies - meaning they put a huge amount of emphasis on momentum budgets and tropical forcing though GP will also talk often about top down strat impacts too. Can they be 100% accurate? No. Not possible. Can they help improve our understanding and increase balance of probability forecasts? Yes. 

To suggest it is psychobabble and not worth reading is more a reflection of limited understanding of the process. I would suggest rereading much of the material and spending time trying to grasp just what it is that affects the upstream patterns that ultimately affect our tiny part of the world. Where has the westerly pattern next week come from? What causes vortex intensification? Why do we have a sustained alaskan high modelled? Tackle this issues and you will improve. Throw your hands up in frustration at perceived counter intuitive forecasting from others without engaging in the detail of the analysis and you'll never go far - unless staring at each and every T+300 GFS op run floats your boat.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
22 hours ago, meh said:

I don't think the word 'teleconnections' does it any favours... it sounds disturbingly close to telekinesis.

At the end of the day, it's either based on solid physical/mathematical foundations or it isn't.  Sounds like it's fair to say that at least some of it is, even though it's initial discovery was apparently from statistical data.  (Beware correlation being causation, and all that).

Good point. Hard data quickly gets blurred by predicted data... and therein lies the heart of the teleconnective problem: in the end a degree of correlation an analogue has to come into play because we are trying to look into the future... but that is hugely prone to variation. Teleconnective analysis is therefore not destiny. Great tweet from Masiello this morning rather makes the point: 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Sorry but personally im getting tired of people saying we have misquoted. I have read some of the posts from a week ago in the model discussion thread and there is no doubts some were predicting an E,ly via heights rises to our NE between Xmas into the New Year and some saying it could happen even earlier.

This is what I said on the same day 12th Dec.

"In my opinion we haven't been seeing wild swings in the output in recent days. Actually the models have been consistent in bringing us a return to milder SW,lys.

Personally I think members should forget about the predicted Scandi HP and focus on just what the models are currently predicting. The reason I say this is because even towards the latter stages of the GFS we couldn't be further away from an E,ly via a Scandi HP if we tried. If anything any future cold spells in distant F.I are more likely to come from a NW/N,ly."

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88969-model-output-discussion-winter-proper-underway/?page=19

Like I say I have no personal gripe with Tamara, GP or anyone else who uses Teleconnections. I do however question the use in long range forecasts and to be honest im sceptical of any LRF whatever methods are used. Just look at the difference between the ECM this morning and yesterday. if supercomputers struggle at just 10 days we have no chance of producing an accurate forecast. I feel some latch on teleconnections as a straw to clutch when the output is poor.

.. and yet on the 11th you stated some were in "denial", backed it up with successive posts on the 13th saying the models were showing SW tracks into Europe and Scandy... and then by Friday 15th did a U-turn and began talking about how suddenly colder weather might be possible. Where was the understanding there of the processes leading to such volatility of output? None that was obvious, and instead we had a flipped reaction to a handful of NWP runs. ECM now looks like this for the 29th:

ECH1-240.GIF?19-12

which is a far cry from south westerlies but is a single 240h chart. Or perhaps the big day itself:

ECH1-144.GIF?19-12

Azores high pulled west, ridge into the arctic - its a polar maritime chart not a SW chart.

What is the prognosis with this in mind therefore? Are these runs that are worth a discussion - or should we perhaps try and understand why we have an alaskan ridge forecast - as expected - to drive into the arctic with the possibility of a linkup? I think this chart wont happen: the signal for height rises over Greenland is not there and if we get anything like this I'd shift in counter clockwise a bit...

... but there's the trick:  one angle is taken trying to understand the drivers and WHY this op run might be out. The other takes no account of what might be affecting output and assumes that staring at computer output on its own is a route to weather understanding. 

I despair. I hope the likes of Tamara and GP will keep posting despite open criticism. Those members who dont understand what is being put out there would be better just saying nothing rather than saying something that simply reflects their own ignorance. We can all agree that weather forecasting isnt arithmetic - 2+2= 4 but sometimes it also =5 (take a look at Masiello's tweet above) - but if we dont try and understand what is creating that kind of variation then there is little point to any forecasting science. I'm not sure how much store I put in Cohen's October snow cover theories... but I rather like his twitter profile: "Always trying to push the boundaries what we can forecast about the weather on seasonal to sub-seasonal time-scales."

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

bah - error.

Edited by Catacol
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