Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Jason M]

It maybe that the signal for heights to our NE is a slightly false one in the sense that if heights remain to our SE any rise in pressure over Scandi simply leaves us in southerlies. Looking through the output today the word that keeps occurring is 'Bartlett'. At the moment its just hard to see pressure lowering over southern Europe. People can argue about what constitutes such a set up and its not quite like the 1988 variant but nonetheless the potential is there.

The GEFS are really very poor and in truth the opp has a fair amount of support in general terms. We of course don't see the extra data the likes of the meto have, but this pattern of a belt of high pressure to our south and east looks persistent and sustainable.

The best news this morning is that by 7pm all of this mornings output will have been replaced.

 

 

[Ravelin]

32 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

Some terrible posts today in the mod thread, rose tinted glasses on both weather preference sides! I'm sure some just post for a reaction, a good debate is what it's all about on here, not fishing for an argument with misleading statements. 

Enjoy your weekend guys!!

Agreed, and I also don't give a damn whether people think they can have BBQed turkey on Xmas day or not. For a start it's still 15 days away, which if it was showing cold the very same people would be scoffing at anyone suggesting ii was nailed on. 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Agreed, and I also don't give a damn whether people think they can have BBQed turkey on Xmas day or not. For a start it's still 15 days away, which if it was showing cold the very same people would be scoffing at anyone suggesting ii was nailed on. 

If by chance I'm included in that general condemnation, as I usually am, then I would be grateful if you would illustrate your criticism with examples of misleading statements I have made in recent posts. And whilst we are on the subject the vast majority of misleading statements and downright lies posted in the MOD thread are without question posted by those of a certain persuasion to satisfy their bias. Of course no big surprise when nobody has an issue with that.

[johncam]

lets be honest most are on here looking for cold/snow !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FI on GFS not too bad, looks not too wet, 18th certainly dry, could see record breaking warmth in NE Scotland?

[Hocus Pocus]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by chance I'm included in that general condemnation, as I usually am, then I would be grateful if you would illustrate your criticism with examples of misleading statements I have made in recent posts. And whilst we are on the subject the vast majority of misleading statements and downright lies posted in the MOD thread are without question posted by those of a certain persuasion to satisfy their bias. Of course no big surprise when nobody has an issue with that.

As much as I would like to see a potential cold spell being modelled in the output I'm also a realsist and I have to agree with you on this knocker that some posters seem to let their prejudices cloud their judgement, or so it seems.

[Ravelin]

49 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by chance I'm included in that general condemnation, as I usually am, then I would be grateful if you would illustrate your criticism with examples of misleading statements I have made in recent posts. And whilst we are on the subject the vast majority of misleading statements and downright lies posted in the MOD thread are without question posted by those of a certain persuasion to satisfy their bias. Of course no big surprise when nobody has an issue with that.

You are not included as you are one of the more realistic posters in the MOD thread. 

I agree, bias exists in both directions, but as long as it is backed up with some sort of evidence, even cherry picked evidence, then it can be described as 'model output discussion'. It's the inane drivel posted in the thread that annoys me, it's not that difficult to resist the urge. I do, as do many others. Post here instead, that's what this thread is for after all. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I for one am going to remain optimistic for this Winter season as a whole unless things don't improve by mid January at least. The thing with the meteorological definitions of our seasons, also the skewed impression left by the relatively recent Winters of 2009/10 & 2010/11, which started remarkably early for our part of the world (the later of which though amazing for late November and December alone, as a whole was a Winter of contrasts with a very cold start, a less cold middle and a mild end), is the fact that usually the first month of any season, whether that be March, June, September or December, is that these months seldom fit aesthetically into the seasons they're regarded as being part of and very often are merely continuations of the previous season, with the middle month i.e April, July, October and January being more likely to be the months when said seasons kick start properly. I know this isn't always so, with January having a tendency these days to not be especially wintry (but it is still the month most of us still get some snow at some point even if insubstantial and short lived) and we've even had some quite warm March's like 2012 for example (though a year later in 2013 we had such a wintry March it would put many official Winter months, including this December, thus far to shame). But statistically the seasons seldom show their full potential until the middle month. So based on that fact alone and being only 10 days into this Winter, with another 80 to go, there is still a massive amount of time for some proper Winter weather. And we all know many of us are bound to see some snow before this season's out, as we do nearly every year, and indeed some people have already in November. Keep the faith.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Hanny]

In line with some of the posts above, as person that is trying to learn about Meteorology and of course what may be on the horizon, I must admit that it has been both difficult and fustating to separate  the nonsense from meaningful posts of late.

It would seem that some are clearly showing their fustration of the hunt for a 'one season' (snow), outlook for the UK that in reality is not possible. I for one love the snow but, I think that it's rareness is what makes it so special when it does materialise, am sure that if we're the opposite we would be craving for warmer/delayed cold winters. 

[Timbo]

i have a feeling that over the next few days the models will move more towards a proper Scandy High, this then allowing a cold pool to develop and move Westwards into the South of the UK

East Anglia could be seeing a proper white Xmas with frequent snow showers.

Watch this space and watch a turn around in the models starting tomorrow  

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

I see it's have a go at IDO day today; well at least it gives me and Sidney a rest.

It's a sair fecht in there. I got a bashing last night for a post which was completely misconstrued. 

WTF is ... similar to a young bull got to do with what I wrote. 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Gael_Force

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Timbo said:

i have a feeling that over the next few days the models will move more towards a proper Scandy High, this then allowing a cold pool to develop and move Westwards into the South of the UK

East Anglia could be seeing a proper white Xmas with frequent snow showers.

Watch this space and watch a turn around in the models starting tomorrow  

love the optimism, but as many would say to me (rightly I suppose) how come you think this? instinct maybe? what mine usually is

I think actually the opposite, and the Atlantic do dominate, spells of wind and rain to last all of Dec

[March]

3 hours ago, johncam said:

Yes indeed , warm rain in summer , slightly colder rain in winter , dreadful climate!!!! 

The perpetual autumn posters are embarrassing. If you really believe this you're either a child or dumb. 

[snowblizzard]

Forget December!

How often do we see extreme cold & snow before or during Christmas?

Very rarely!

Loads of winter still to come and I recon we'll have some exciting times (although short-lived) to come during January, February and possibly early March.

Keep faith people.

[NeilN]

I was thinking - would anyone take winter 1994/5? Mild on and off but the odd snowy interlude in February and March? Better than bugger all. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I was thinking - would anyone take winter 1994/5? Mild on and off but the odd snowy interlude in February and March? Better than bugger all. 

Id much prefer 1994 feb although March 1995 was very good.

[NeilN]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Id much prefer 1994 feb although March 1995 was very good.

I remember it as a child (both those months) playing out in the snow and no school for about 3-4 days. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

5 minutes ago, March said:

The perpetual autumn posters are embarrassing. If you really believe this you're either a child or dumb. 

Exactly. The vegetation cycle tells a different story, as well as the annual changes in daylight hours. Plus the weather and temperatures still fluctuate throughout the year. It's just the lack of extremes on either end of the spectrum which gives some people this impression. Though I still get times in Summer when I have to open the window to keep cool and there are still times in Winter when it's uncomfortably chilly enough to put the central heating on. The seasons are still distinct. We just haven't been having much in the way of long lasting heatwave or freezes. But that's the British climate for you and at this point we don't have to look back too many years to find examples of such, even if it might feel like it sometimes.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nn2013 said:

I remember it as a child (both those months) playing out in the snow and no school for about 3-4 days. 

Id left school by then but still carried on looking at the countryfile forecasts every sunday despite that I didn't desperately 'need' snow to get out of anything, 1994 was the first big snow event since 1991, we had a crap run in between in  the midlands.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Id left school by then but still carried on looking at the countryfile forecasts every sunday despite that I didn't desperately 'need' snow to get out of anything, 1994 was the first big snow event since 1991, we had a crap run in between in  the midlands.

A bit like now (though that period between Feb 91 and Nov 93 was more of a carp run for snow than cold in general). I don't think the current crap run will last too much longer and even this Winter might yet break us free from the cycle.  Historically there does tend to be a trend for clusters when it comes to cold with snow and mild with little snow type Winters, with more mixed periods in between. We obviously had a more cold and snowy cluster of Winters from 2008 to 2013 with the current milder and pretty snowless period commencing since then. I am hoping that this Winter might break it, based on the idea that there has been periods in the past where 3 mild Winters were sandwiched between 2 colder ones. Such as the mild and indeed very mild Winters between those of 1986/87 and 1990/91. Also between those of 1996/97 and 2000/01. Though there was a longer 5 year cluster of mild Winters between 1970/71 and 1976/77. Also a 7 year cluster between 2000/01 and 2008/09. Though to be fair, though mild overall it was a bit more mixed than that, with 2005/06 being slightly on the cold side with even 2002/03 and 2003/04 having isolated cold spells. Whatever happens though I think this Winter won't be as bad as 2013/14 and 2015/16. Or at least I hope not.

[johncam]

39 minutes ago, March said:

The perpetual autumn posters are embarrassing. If you really believe this you're either a child or dumb. 

I  thought this was the moan thread which was all i was doing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Daniel*]

Quite frankly some of you are being ridiculous. Do you see this winter destined to go pearshaped? 10 days of December have passed, I'll avoid the cliche, we've had several attempts at getting into winter pattern albeit this has been unsuccessful thus far, this is pretty unusual I stress, the seasonal modelling spoken by fergie, is depicting what winter lovers want while background signals may not be conducive right now, whose to say this won't change with everything always in flux? It is a waiting game & if we do not see the northern blocking materialise, with associated winter impacts by end of Feb. I'd understand the 'frustration' as per usual some bad runs pop out and this is thought as the be and end all. It doesn't make the forum a pleasant place to be, if some backed their thoughts with, reasoning fair enough, the mod thread is not a place for an emotional commentary, but some on here just choose to spout wishy washy nonsense, with their thoughts, automatically set with the "safe", option yes 252! Although some may deem it as realism it is no good of a contribution. I've been model watching for a number of years, and this 'season' has been like no other I can recall. 

[cyclonic happiness]

32 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Exactly. The vegetation cycle tells a different story, as well as the annual changes in daylight hours. Plus the weather and temperatures still fluctuate throughout the year. It's just the lack of extremes on either end of the spectrum which gives some people this impression. Though I still get times in Summer when I have to open the window to keep cool and there are still times in Winter when it's uncomfortably chilly enough to put the central heating on. The seasons are still distinct. We just haven't been having much in the way of long lasting heatwave or freezes. But that's the British climate for you and at this point we don't have to look back too many years to find examples of such, even if it might feel like it sometimes.

Nope, this is perpetual Autumn. And I'm 39 years old and am able to speak! :-p

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, March said:

The perpetual autumn posters are embarrassing. If you really believe this you're either a child or dumb. 

Incase you haven't noticed it's pouring outside with temps sitting at 12C

Rewind 6 months: it's pouring outside with temps sitting at 16/17C 

whilst there is a temperature and daylight difference the weather hardly reflects that bar 5 or 6 degrees. A few frosty nights and maybe 1 or 2 snow days doesn't differentiate seasons I'm afraid. 

If it wasn't for the leaves missing on the trees, the past couple of days have felt like April! 

I had my heating on in June this year. Today it is not on... 

I suppose you could separate our climate into seasons but not extreme. I'm referring to and I'm sure @johncam was: real seasons like the US/Russia/Canada/Scandinavia etc - boiling summers and freezing winters.

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[johncam]

exactly, and up north we very rarely get much sun in summer :-(