Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Met Office updates are a waste of space. They are always well off the pace and take days to react after the model output changes.

They're a million times more reliable than most (not all!) of the see-sawing knee-jerk reactions we get from the MAD thread, though...

[Danielvn]

10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Met Office updates are a waste of space. They are always well off the pace and take days to react after the model output changes.

And how many times have the Met Office been right because they don’t change their forecast just because the models show a change over a few runs.

The Met Office are where they are because they do a good job...

[Evening thunder]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

They're a million times more reliable than most (not all!) of the see-sawing knee-jerk reactions we get from the MAD thread, though...

Yes and the labelling of model runs as going off on one, wrong, hilarious etc which then turn out correct 

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

And how many times have the Met Office been right because they don’t change their forecast just because the models show a change over a few runs.

The Met Office are where they are because they do a good job...

I find that a combination of the Met's monthlies, Tamara's teleconnections, and the Beeb's and NW's official forecasts gives me enough information to give family members a reasonably accurate 7-Day forecast...If I were to 'issue' an entirely new prediction, based on each and every GFS, APERGE, GEM or UKMO run, they'd all think I am a nutter!

Edited August 4, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Met Office updates are a waste of space. They are always well off the pace and take days to react after the model output changes.

You sure you meant to post that?? Really?????

[Djdazzle]

30 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

You sure you meant to post that?? Really?????

The extended ones are next to useless. They give a range of outcomes and tend to be non commital. The problem is, they go well beyond what can reliably be predicted but the general public believe them as a done deal. People actually make outdoor plans based on them. Last week, the update was signalling a high chance of hot weather. Now it’s changed. The extended models on which they are based flip around. So I stand by what I said.

[markyo]

What a beautiful summers Saturday,20c,blue sky gentle breeze,totally perfect. Who could moan at this!. Fingers crossed the rest of summer pans out like this,a very welcome change

[Snowyowl9]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

By next Thursday, it could be 22C!

13c max in the west nice.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Monday could be last day of summer proper in my area, looks back to normal from Tuesday, Atlantic lows dominating, autumnal feel early mornings

[cheese]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

What a beautiful summers Saturday,20c,blue sky gentle breeze,totally perfect. Who could moan at this!. Fingers crossed the rest of summer pans out like this,a very welcome change

It's a lovely day in Leeds, 25C with sunshine and only light wind.

However, the latest runs don't look very nice with showery rain and temps of 17-19C as the daytime max from Thursday onward. Not pleasant and plenty of moaning will be done if that happens.

Edited August 4, 2018 by cheese

[markyo]

43 minutes ago, cheese said:

It's a lovely day in Leeds, 25C with sunshine and only light wind.

However, the latest runs don't look very nice with showery rain and temps of 17-19C as the daytime max from Thursday onward. Not pleasant and plenty of moaning will be done if that happens.

Not if your working,very good temps for getting about i feel,staff at sites i visit have suffered so much,this week will be a blessing. Maybe if you've outdoor plans with young children though not so good. But by no means cool and no washout.

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, markyo said:

Not if your working,very good temps for getting about i feel,staff at sites i visit have suffered so much,this week will be a blessing. Maybe if you've outdoor plans with young children though not so good. But by no means cool and no washout.

17-19C is definitely cool, and even cooler if it's cloudy with showers. It might not be a washout but it's far from ideal weather for peak holiday season.

No need for it to be hot, and I'm certainly not clamouring for 30s heat, but today's weather is pretty much perfect and would be ideal for the rest of August. Warm, gentle breeze, blue skies - surely the kind of weather that appeals to everyone. No idea why anyone would want it to be cloudy and rainy (not saying you do but I know some on here love that kind of stuff).

 

Edited August 4, 2018 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, markyo said:

What a beautiful summers Saturday,20c,blue sky gentle breeze,totally perfect. Who could moan at this!. Fingers crossed the rest of summer pans out like this,a very welcome change

Agreed, beautiful summer day here, 28C and a nice breeze. Cannot complain and I hope that the rest of summer pans out like this here

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

13c max in the west nice.

Oooh thats a beauty that chart!!

[cheese]

14 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Oooh thats a beauty that chart!!

I fail to see the beauty in that snot-coloured chart! 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I fail to see the beauty in that snot-coloured chart! 

He’s just got the hump because there’s a few more days above 30 coming up with 32 - 34 on Mon and Tue!

There’s also naff all rain on that chart!

[cheese]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

He’s just got the hump because there’s a few more days above 30 coming up with 32 - 34 on Mon and Tue!

There’s also naff all rain on that chart!

Looks like most of the rainfall will be convective, so obviously hit and miss. With any luck most of us will scrape by next week with little or no rain.

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

Looks like most of the rainfall will be convective, so obviously hit and miss. With any luck most of us will scrape by next week with little or no rain.

Interestingly my lawn had been showing some signs of recovery, but seems to be yellowing again.

, 

[Danielvn]

5 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

The extended ones are next to useless. They give a range of outcomes and tend to be non commital. The problem is, they go well beyond what can reliably be predicted but the general public believe them as a done deal. People actually make outdoor plans based on them. Last week, the update was signalling a high chance of hot weather. Now it’s changed. The extended models on which they are based flip around. So I stand by what I said.

If they’re non-commital, might that not be an indication that things are perhaps a touch up in the air?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Danielvn said:

If they’re non-commital, might that not be an indication that things are perhaps a touch up in the air?

But they are nearly always like that. We all know how hard it is to pin down conditions for 2-3 weeks away. Look at how much the long term ensembles can change. By the time the Meto update the forecasts, it’s changec again!

[Wimbledon88]

Beeb going for major cool down from midweek and rain for all areas. Could be the start of autumn?Imagine if we had an early autumn after all the heat. Balance things out. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Beeb going for major cool down from midweek and rain for all areas. Could be the start of autumn?Imagine if we had an early autumn after all the heat. Balance things out. 

They also said any rain would come from showers, so not guaranteed.

Let the poor kids have a decent summer holiday. Who wants an early autumn?

[Frost HoIIow]

31 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

They also said any rain would come from showers, so not guaranteed.

Let the poor kids have a decent summer holiday. Who wants an early autumn?

Most would rather be inside on their tablets/phones regardless of the weather. Years ago we would be out come rain or shine, got muddy and still had a smile on our faces, makes you wonder why the current batch of little darlings can't deal with a bit of aggro? 

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Most would rather be inside on their tablets/phones regardless of the weather. Years ago we would be out come rain or shine, got muddy and still had a smile on our faces, makes you wonder why the current batch of little darlings can't deal with a bit of aggro? 

A reflection of society, a nanny state and the fact that everything is always somebody else’s fault!

[cheese]

46 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Most would rather be inside on their tablets/phones regardless of the weather. Years ago we would be out come rain or shine, got muddy and still had a smile on our faces, makes you wonder why the current batch of little darlings can't deal with a bit of aggro? 

Shock horror, people don't want to be outside when it's raining. Big deal. Most normal people don't.

In any case, it's not that kids can't go outside and play when the weather isn't nice, it's more a case that going outside to play is a much nicer experience when it is. All of my best childhood memories involve being outside when it's sunny and warm - the summer of 1995 was the best of my life for that very reason. 

For what it's worth, I went for a bike ride today - temperature was 25C with sunny skies. I saw loads of kids, families and people in general enjoying the weather, kicking a football around, eating ice creams, and just enjoying life. You don't see anything like that when it's 18C and overcast. Sunny, warm weather has a huge positive impact on people's moods.

Edited August 4, 2018 by cheese