Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Good,because this heatwave can do one now. Still 28c and sweating my knackers off,most humid its been during this long drawn out interminable summer.And 33c tommorow,just great!!

Cant wait for the Atlantic to get its ass in gear again,with a few hot days and a thunderstorm thrown in.

Propa weather!! 

Only it may not be three hot days and a thunderstorm. Be careful what you wish for - it might be 10 wet days and - 10 more wet days . . .

[stevofunnelcl]

Met Office made a huge error, with their local forecast

currently says:

Becoming hot into next week - outlook sunday to tuesday

Erm... what?

Tourists are going to read that, and think the heatwave is coming back next week !

for my area it says 19c on tues, 17c on wed / thurs

Edited August 3, 2018 by stevofunnelcl

[cheese]

21 hours ago, markyo said:

Awfully nice of you to say so old chap,thank you so much Its about time i was appreciated on here!

Just for the record where did i say low 20c sunny,gentle breeze wasn't perfect? To me that is a perfect summers day!!! Where did i say we would get a cloud fest,wet and cool?? 

That is, or was, what the model output was showing, so no idea why you would look forward to that. It's not even hot in Yorkshire.

[markyo]

Every MSM forecast is now using the same words..Bearable,comfortable,relief for sleeping. Joyous words to so many who have suffered this summer. This August will not be a washout,neither will it be a blazing heat wave. Every model is showing something slightly different,this indicates a more mobile fresher setup in my view. 

So thankful the appalling heat in Spain and Portugal has little or no chance of hitting these shores. To many have really found it so hard this Summer,a gentle pleasant last 3rd to Summer would be perfect now.

[Evening thunder]

I notice this weekend has incrementally downgraded here, 1pm temps on the ECM went from 26C to 22C over 4 runs. Also the correct solution seems to have been arrived at with that plume i.e. it curves nicely around Britain but effects the entirety of nearby Europe and heads into parts of Scandinavia.. Normal service resumed then. 
 

[Paul]

So, for probably the thousandth time, this thread is not for subtle/unsutble/funny/unfunny digs at other members. It would be a shame if we had to look at stopping people posting because of this stuff.

[cheese]

39 minutes ago, Paul said:

So, for probably the thousandth time, this thread is not for subtle/unsutble/funny/unfunny digs at other members. It would be a shame if we had to look at stopping people posting because of this stuff.

Where is the thread to do that?

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Where is the thread to do that?

Believe it or not, there isn't one...

[stevofunnelcl]

as usual over in the mad place, they look for the return of heat, even long before the cooler spell arrives

same in winter, but opposite, we finally get a cold snap, people already looking for the mild, before the cold arrives

imby perspective ahead

met office website has this, strong west / north west winds setup on Monday, and go on through the week

becoming west / south west at times

only 17 or 18c tues through friday

certainly no sign of a warm up, at the end of the week

probably different for sheltered eastern area's, but i just comment on what it's expected to be like where i am

great to live not far from the sea.. keeps things more pleasant, so it seldom get's uncomfortably hot

Edited August 4, 2018 by stevofunnelcl

[Djdazzle]

It’s  only commenting on what the models are showing. Anyway, it’s August, nothing wrong with looking for hot weather! It’s been an amazIng summer which a couple of days ago looked like it was on the ropes. Thankfully, the models have backed away from that, especially in the south.

[markyo]

The trend is still for a much more comfortable August,the heat only in the far South and South East. This could well improve the tourist areas away from the coast,nearly nobody wants to go wandering around in plus 30c temps,especially with children who are now off school. A balanced end of Summer is far better than any extreme.

Edited August 4, 2018 by markyo

[Uncle Gargy]

We are off to Iceland for our summer holidays. It would be torture to go into the Med this year!

[cheese]

35 minutes ago, markyo said:

The trend is still for a much more comfortable August,the heat only in the far South and South East. This could well improve the tourist areas away from the coast,nearly nobody wants to go wandering around in plus 30c temps,especially with children who are now off school. A balanced end of Summer is far better than any extreme.

And how often has it been 30C plus in Sheffield this year? Once? 

[DAVID SNOW]

Looking at the GFSENS for London (imby) there is no trend for heat(after Tuesday) to return out to the 20th.

After that(if its right) we can only guess.

Latest met text update says much the same, out to the end of August they are seeing the possibility of heat returning with no area specified.

[markyo]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

And how often has it been 30C plus in Sheffield this year? Once? 

Err....you've lost me. I was referring to inland areas,All over the UK that have a tourist industry. Sheffield as much as i love it ain't really a tourist mecca to be honest

[cheese]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

Err....you've lost me. I was referring to inland areas,All over the UK that have a tourist industry. Sheffield as much as i love it ain't really a tourist mecca to be honest

The point I'm making is that if 30C is your definition of heat then you can count on one hand the number of times it's been hot in Sheffield this year - ergo, you have no reason to complain. Right? 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Looking at the GFSENS for London (imby) there is no trend for heat(after Tuesday) to return out to the 20th.

After that(if its right) we can only guess.

Latest met text update says much the same, out to the end of August they are seeing the possibility of heat returning with no area specified.

Nothing too extreme. Mid to high 20s is good. However the ensembles were looking dire a day or so ago. I’d expect them to trend warmer in the next few days with more influence from the Azores high.

[DAVID SNOW]

16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nothing too extreme. Mid to high 20s is good. However the ensembles were looking dire a day or so ago. I’d expect them to trend warmer in the next few days with more influence from the Azores high.

With the ENS chopping and changing atm  I think I will stick with the more reliable met updates.

[markyo]

39 minutes ago, cheese said:

The point I'm making is that if 30C is your definition of heat then you can count on one hand the number of times it's been hot in Sheffield this year - ergo, you have no reason to complain. Right? 

My definition of heat is when i feel the heat. A numerical definition is useless,it can be 25c high humidity and feel awful,it can be 28c low humidity and feel far more comfortable. All i meant to put was at 30c plus the chances of it being more uncomfortable were a lot higher for a sizeable proportion of the population. You are different,you long for the higher temps,i get that,so what,i'm different again so what?  i'm not sure what point your repeatedly trying to make,sorry. Drop me a PM if you want to continue this,the thread isn't for arguing on. Thanks.

Edited August 4, 2018 by markyo

[davehsug]

Disappointing that the METO long range outlook has finally jumped ship this morning. It's held steady for days on the settled weather returning, but now only hints at this late on in the month. It seems that even 2018 can't overcome the curse of modern Augusts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

August is an over rated summer month my many people, think because whole month is summer holiday makes it to many ppl as peak summer

but by mid August nights do start to get longer and mornings more autumnal away from the SE

[markyo]

26 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Disappointing that the METO long range outlook has finally jumped ship this morning. It's held steady for days on the settled weather returning, but now only hints at this late on in the month. It seems that even 2018 can't overcome the curse of modern Augusts.

Its not really about jumping ship,the METO only react to actual model predictions,they don't have a preference.

[davehsug]

5 minutes ago, markyo said:

Its not really about jumping ship,the METO only react to actual model predictions,they don't have a preference.

I disagree. They often hold on to the forecasts long after any modelling we can see suggests that whey are wrong, especially when that forecast has been relatively unchanged for a few days. It regularly gives false hope to coldies in the winter and warmies in the summer. Not that it matters either way, it was just an observation based on experience.

[Methuselah]

By next Thursday, it could be 22C!

[Djdazzle]

45 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Disappointing that the METO long range outlook has finally jumped ship this morning. It's held steady for days on the settled weather returning, but now only hints at this late on in the month. It seems that even 2018 can't overcome the curse of modern Augusts.

Met Office updates are a waste of space. They are always well off the pace and take days to react after the model output changes.