Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Wow!...the Atlantic depressions are about as much use as a chocolate teapot this summer, gets anywhere near the continent and just gives up the ghost. The only cool uppers are always in the same area and that's to the north west of us in the Atlantic.

Let them stay there until September!

[weirpig]

Looks fine for next week   Mid 20s pushing high 20s in this local is perfect summer weather.  Not sure what the met are seeing though  as from today through next week it dosent get above 23c   mind you it says the top temperature for here today is 20c  and its already 21c   who knows!

[knocker]

On 18/07/2018 at 08:26, Interitus said:

Föhn

http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/record-breaking-heat-across-n-norway-and-kola-peninsula-july-19th/

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by knocker

[DAVID SNOW]

The GFS12z is consistent, in that it again pushes the hot air away next Saturday.

Consistently right or wrong?

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The GFS12z is consistent, in that it again pushes the hot air away next Saturday.

Consistently right or wrong?

wrong.... because apart from the 06z other gfs, the ecm, and anoms do not support it.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Every summer we see toasty 18C uppers pushed away so nothing new then

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

wrong.... because apart from the 06z other gfs, the ecm, and anoms do not support it.

Time will tell. Lets see where it has the hot air on tomorrows 12z for next Saturday.

[mushymanrob]

10 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Time will tell. Lets see where it has the hot air on tomorrows 12z for next Saturday.

nothings certain that far off... its all about percentages of probabilities.

not holding 'us' down to next saturday specifically, give a day either side... but it would be unusual (but not impossible) if the 12z (who first presented the blowtorch) to be right over the ecm, other gfs runs, the anomaly charts and even tamara!

but even IF the 12z proves correct, its still very nice pleasantly warm summery weather!  its a 'win win' situation.

Edited July 20, 2018 by mushymanrob

[DAVID SNOW]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

nothings certain that far off... its all about percentages of probabilities.

not holding 'us' down to next saturday specifically, give a day either side... but it would be unusual (but not impossible) if the 12z (who first presented the blowtorch) to be right over the ecm, other gfs runs, the anomaly charts and even tamara!

For my own interest I have been 'following' the GFS12Z  for the last 3 days, to see where it puts the hot air and for how long, Saturday seemed as good a day as any to pick.

[knocker]

Spot the cold front

[draztik]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Spot the cold front

beautiful. hope it sweeps in and stays put for some considerable time. we all deserve fresh weather. 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, draztik said:

beautiful. hope it sweeps in and stays put for some considerable time. we all deserve fresh weather. 

Speak for yourself. Everyone I know is absolutely loving this summer. The fresh weather can wait until September, as far as I’m concerned. 

[Djdazzle]

This morning’s runs seem to be upping the heat potential.

[draztik]

7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Speak for yourself. Everyone I know is absolutely loving this summer. The fresh weather can wait until September, as far as I’m concerned. 

Lovely to note autumn fast approaching 

[Djdazzle]

7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Speak for yourself. Everyone I know is absolutely loving this summer. The fresh weather can wait until September, as far as I’m concerned. 

Yes it creates such a feel good factor. Most people I speak to are embracing what could be a once in a generation summer. The only people who seems to moan about it seem to frequent this forum!

[draztik]

19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The only people who seems to moan about it seem to frequent this forum!

 

anyone would think this was the moan thread. 

 

[Djdazzle]

18 minutes ago, draztik said:

anyone would think this was the moan thread. 

 

[Mokidugway]

Second day of drizzle  ,summers deed here ,roll on spring .

[markyo]

29 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Second day of drizzle  ,summers deed here ,roll on spring .

You lucky b******d,sounds lovely.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, markyo said:

You lucky b******d,sounds lovely.

Your more than welcome  to it  at least im of out of this miserable  island mid August for 3 weeks , lol

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, draztik said:

Lovely to note autumn fast approaching 

6 weeks away, yet. Then months and months of cold, wet and dark to ‘enjoy’. So nice to actually get something that could be called summer, this year.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

6 weeks away, yet. Then months and months of cold, wet and dark to ‘enjoy’. So nice to actually get something that could be called summer, this year.

September can still be a summer month,  like March can be wintry.

Less daylight agreed and not as hot (hopefully)

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

September can still be a summer month,  like March can be wintry.

Less daylight agreed and not as hot (hopefully)

I’m hoping September is hot and sunny too, but realise this is just being greedy and rather unrealistic. You never know, though!

[Guest]

5 hours ago, draztik said:

Lovely to note autumn fast approaching 

Given the late bite to winter, then the early start to summer, it'll be interesting to see how autumn will start this year. Will September turn unsettled and stormy? Will it stay hot and sunny? Anyone's guess if I'm honest!

[lassie23]

Any chance of snow in August to kill all the wasps