Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes, If I remember correctly we were at 31C here at midday, so well on our way to breaking the all-time record. It then clouded over for a bit, and in the end 'only' reached 33C.

It also rained briefly on that day, at around 3pm, as thunderstorms developed nearby and moved north - and it was genuinely, proper warm rain - temp was around 28C. Dew points were 21C. Strange experience, like being in Florida or something.

Linton-on-Ouse only reached 31C that day as a max according to the records. Usually warmer than Leeds there.

[cheese]

26 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Linton-on-Ouse only reached 31C that day as a max according to the records. Usually warmer than Leeds there.

No it's not. Look at historical records for both Leeds and Linton on Ouse and you will scarcely find any month that was  warmer in the latter than the former.

Edited July 18, 2018 by cheese

[knocker]

The gfs retreats from the idea of a plume despite favorable building blocks and the appropriate triggers being cocked. An emergency meeting of COBRA has been called.

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The gfs retreats from the idea of a plume despite favorable building blocks and the appropriate triggers being cocked. An emergency meeting of COBRA has been called.

Eh?





That not 'plumey' enough then?

Edited July 19, 2018 by mb018538

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I don’t recall a major issue with trees after summer 95. And I would hasten a guess that the ground around the tree roots is nowhere near as dry as in 76 as there was a long run of dry months preceding it along with a dry hot summer in 1975.

spot on

the only damage to trees in 76 was to shallow rooted trees... beech suffered badly.

this spring was very wet upto mid april, totally unlike 76.

ive seen these dry spells many times in the past, they have been rare since 2003 (although the southeast gets more then the rest of us). but grass/vegetation always recovers. brown grass = no problem.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Eh?





That not 'plumey' enough then?

Eh?

A couple of days at 8 & 9. So lets take two days either side, not counting to course the period prior to all of this

One swallow, or even two, does not a summer make.

[cheese]

They see me trollin'..

[mb018538]

Well any notion of a plume has always been aimed at the back end of next week, and would you believe it (not really), the GFS charts you have chosen to post are bottom of the pack for the 00z, well below the mean and a cold outlier:



I think I'll take the met office guidance:

UK Outlook for Monday 23 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 1 Aug 2018:

On Monday and Tuesday the northwest of the UK is likely to see cloudier conditions with some rain and drizzle at times, especially across western hills. Elsewhere it should be largely dry with sunny spells and light winds, chiefly across the east and southeast, although central areas could have the odd shower at times. Looking further ahead a west-east split in conditions is likely to develop, with eastern areas being drier, more settled, warm and increasingly humid, but always with the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Further west it may be more changeable and breezy with some outbreaks of rain or showers, but also some drier interludes. Temperatures nearer normal in the west, but generally warm elsewhere, with hot or very hot conditions at times in the east.

Add in the NOAA anomalies:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

over your not-so-thinly veiled hatred for summer heat. It's fine, it'll all be over before you know it!

 

Edited July 19, 2018 by mb018538

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

over your not-so-thinly veiled hatred for summer heat. It's fine, it'll all be over before you know it!

 

As I have deliberately avoided joining in the pointless discussion on likes or dislikes of very hot conditions you have absolutely no grounds for making that silly comment. But irrespective on whether I do or not, I always attempt to analyze the output without a preconceived conception on how I want it to turn out and adjust the analysis accordingly.

Very wise to take the the Met Office guidance and you are indeed a better man than me if you can deduce plumes from the NOAA anomalies.

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Very wise to take the the Met Office guidance and you are indeed a better man than me if you can deduce plumes from the NOAA anomalies.

pretty straight foreward really knocks... those charts suggest the mean upper flow... as you know full well.  that allows for surface flows from either 'side' of the isobars. the current noaa 6-10 dayer has the mean upper flow south of southwest across most of the uk with a slack gradient over the southeast.

from that, a plume is certainly possible. not a 'given' by any means, but is certainly within the limitations the noaa's allow for. 

of course its transitory, a 48 odd hour affair, so wouldnt support yesterdays 12z gfs that had days of a southerly.

me? im very content with the outputs, the noaa anomaly charts have been consistent now for 4 days, and imho totally support the current ops, which differ only in the detail.

[Nath]

Ive finally caved in an bought a portable AC unit.  Not only am I baking every day, I live with my elderly 82 yr old mum who is really struggling in this heat.

I love fine sunny hot weather, but this is crazy!

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Nath said:

Ive finally caved in an bought a portable AC unit.  Not only am I baking every day, I live with my elderly 82 yr old mum who is really struggling in this heat.

I love fine sunny hot weather, but this is crazy!

Brilliant bit of kit , I have air source heating system which also will works as ac ,cool literally

[DAVID SNOW]

Todays GFS12Z is hot for sure, but compared to yesterdays same time run, gone are the extreme temps.

[Nath]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Todays GFS12Z is hot for sure, but compared to yesterdays same time run, gone are the extreme temps.

Good!! lol

[Weather-history]

GFS 12z perturbation 15 shows a scorching heatwave for the start of August, something similar to that began August 1995

Edited July 19, 2018 by Weather-history

[DAVID SNOW]

Its a long way out, but GFS12Z goes all 'average' into the first week of August.

Average still equals warm though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wth? bbc 18 degrees and rain tomorrow?????????

GFS surely more inline 25 degrees and dry

[Djdazzle]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wth? bbc 18 degrees and rain tomorrow?????????

GFS surely more inline 25 degrees and dry

The BBC are by far the worst now. I'd actually trust NAVGEM more!

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wth? bbc 18 degrees and rain tomorrow?????????

GFS surely more inline 25 degrees and dry

What is the Met saying for you tomorrow?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

What is the Met saying for you tomorrow?

18 degrees and rain

[Mokidugway]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

18 degrees and rain

Some here

[DAVID SNOW]

28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

18 degrees and rain

Just looked, met has a high of 23 with rain poss  around 5pm, updated  forecast perhaps.

[Weather-history]

18z ensemble perturbation 17 has an absolute scorcher at the end of its run

[Interitus]

13 hours ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z perturbation 15 shows a scorching heatwave for the start of August, something similar to that began August 1995

Looks more similar to start of August 1990

[Froze were the Days]

Wow!...the Atlantic depressions are about as much use as a chocolate teapot this summer, gets anywhere near the continent and just gives up the ghost. The only cool uppers are always in the same area and that's to the north west of us in the Atlantic.