Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[DAVID SNOW]

Maybe the next GFS run will upgrade the lethal heat, 45c or 50c, over to you GFS18Z.

[mushymanrob]

a wonderful gfs run... sadly unlikely to verify in that state..

[Djdazzle]

If that run isn't a warm outlier, I'll fall of my chair.

35C at midday on a GFS chart? And to think that GFS undercooks . . . 

Incidentally, what was the midday temp In London on 10/8/03?

[Mokidugway]

That should bring me 30 c as at Kendal calling  that weekend, excellent 

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

If that run isn't a warm outlier, I'll fall of my chair.

35C at midday on a GFS chart? And to think that GFS undercooks . . . 

Incidentally, what was the midday temp In London on 10/8/03?

A bonkers hot outlier!

IIRC About 33c@noon.

[reef]

GFS puts us into the furnace right when I'm on a string of 5 night shifts. That can only mean one thing - it'll probably happen.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

A bonkers hot outlier!

IIRC About 33c@noon.

That’s interesting because on 1/7/15 it was 34C before midday. Always wonder how hot that day could have been without the 2 hour cloud cover!

[cheese]

35 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That’s interesting because on 1/7/15 it was 34C before midday. Always wonder how hot that day could have been without the 2 hour cloud cover!

Yes, If I remember correctly we were at 31C here at midday, so well on our way to breaking the all-time record. It then clouded over for a bit, and in the end 'only' reached 33C.

It also rained briefly on that day, at around 3pm, as thunderstorms developed nearby and moved north - and it was genuinely, proper warm rain - temp was around 28C. Dew points were 21C. Strange experience, like being in Florida or something.

Edited July 18, 2018 by cheese

[DAVID SNOW]

No mention of the GEM12Z run over in the overheated MOD thread, probably because it shows temps dropping through the floor at the same time the GFS blows a gasket.

[knocker]

Would you Adam and Eve it. A cold undercut

Edited July 18, 2018 by knocker

[DAVID SNOW]

Friendly model banter, do what it says on the tin.

[Captain Shortwave]

To be fair the sheer audacity of an operational model to throw that extreme a solution in high resolution is worthy of comment, though it will probably not happen and we will see something more realistic. Like the extremely cold runs during the winter..... oh wait they actually happened so perhaps disregard that part.

We get these runs virtually every year, so it will likely be replaced by something more realistic with perhaps low thirties towards the south east on a couple of days. Though it almost feels like tempting fate if you do say it won't happen this year.

[knocker]

 

Edited July 18, 2018 by knocker

[Paul]

That's more likely to do with the upgrade to the ensembles today and the file changes within it, screwing with the scripts making those images than anything data related. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdfs/scn18-50naefs_gefsaaa.pdf

[PersianPaladin]

We bloody well need some rain. I'm getting concerned about the amount of brown grass around even up here in the north. Every smidgen of Atlantic shortwaves cropping up on any ensemble should get a cheer from most, frankly.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, PersianPaladin said:

We bloody well need some rain. I'm getting concerned about the amount of brown grass around even up here in the north. Every smidgen of Atlantic shortwaves cropping up on any ensemble should get a cheer from most, frankly.

Grass recovers quickly after rain. Even at the end of summer 95 it was back to being green after a few days.

[DAVID SNOW]

Models showing some 'real'  heat building in Spain. its a shame I don't live there , being hundreds of miles to the north I simply cant! Hope it happens though so I can enjoy it.

'

Edited July 18, 2018 by Paul

[Paul]

Another set of posts removed due to people using this thread to bitch about others. It's not for that, never will be, so give it a break please.

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Models showing some 'real'  heat building in Spain. its a shame I don't live there , being hundreds of miles to the north I simply cant! Hope it happens though so I can enjoy it.

'

The good news for you in your neck of the woods is that the bbc long range forecast has maxes at 31-32c for Monday. Enjoy!

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The good news for you in your neck of the woods is that the bbc long range forecast has maxes at 31-32c for Monday. Enjoy!

Thanks, I will try to, what I wont be able to do is to enjoy, love, thinks its great or fantastic, if the heat is hundreds of miles from where I live.......

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Deleted.

Edited July 18, 2018 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

That won't stop them, Malcolm; the MAD thread is already a heat-fans' love-in. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Grass recovers quickly after rain. Even at the end of summer 95 it was back to being green after a few days.

I think the main concerns are:

1.  Undergrowth is many areas is so dry we could see effects similar to those in Australia where burning vegetation releases flammable gases which act like blowtorches, sending sheets of flame laterally for many metres just above the ground.  I read about this effect in New Scientist a few years back - one Australian firefighter was fortunate to survive as he was engulfed in fire despite being in the middle of an expanse of bare earth with no vegetation anywhere near him.  Buildings were nigh-on exploding as temperatures within these fires exceed 1000C.  If that were to hit a hospital, you could be dealing with hundreds of fatalities.

2.  Some tree species have not recovered since the drought of 1976, which caused a change in ecosystems.  If we get 30C+ most days between now and early September, which is what is being ramped, we will lose many matures trees.

Edited July 18, 2018 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I think the main concerns are:

1.  Undergrowth is many areas is so dry we could see effects similar to those in Australia where burning vegetation releases flammable gases which act like blowtorches, sending sheets of flame laterally for many metres just above the ground.  I read about this effect in New Scientist a few years back - one Australian firefighter was fortunate to survive as he was engulfed in fire despite being in the middle of an expanse of bare earth with no vegetation anywhere near him.  Buildings were nigh-on exploding as temperatures within these fires exceed 1000C.  If that were to hit a hospital, you could be dealing with hundreds of fatalities.

2.  Many tree spcies have not recovered since the drought of 1976, which caused a change in ecosystems.  If we get 30C+ most days between now and early September, which is what is being ramped, we will lose many matures trees.

I don’t recall a major issue with trees after summer 95. And I would hasten a guess that the ground around the tree roots is nowhere near as dry as in 76 as there was a long run of dry months preceding it along with a dry hot summer in 1975.

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Grass recovers quickly after rain. Even at the end of summer 95 it was back to being green after a few days.

I can go back to 1976. From a desert on my way to a holiday, to a mixture of flooded fields & green grass on the way back home 10 days later. It was a VERY wet holiday!