Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Hosepipe ban for NW England coming into effect from 5th Aug.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-44850128

[draztik]

Mad thread back to their old tricks - when a model doesn’t show you what you want, call it out/ignore it and say it’s wrong. That’ll work! 

Edited July 17, 2018 by draztik

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

18 hours ago, danm said:

Another scorcher down here in the SE today, maxed out at 30c. 

Still 28c at 7pm in London. After a brief cool down tomorrow (25c) it heats up again into the high 20’s/30c by the end of the working week. 

Incredible spell of weather. 

Not so "incredible" when your living in Manchester sat underneath 20C and thundery clouds and then checking the weather apps for London and theyre all showing '29C'. Id call that "ridiculous" considering the temperature difference.  Should've been at least 26/27C here.

[danm]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

Not so "incredible" when your living in Manchester sat underneath 20C and thundery clouds and then checking the weather apps for London and theyre all showing '29C'. Id call that "ridiculous" considering the temperature difference.  Should've been at least 26/27C here.

I get your point, but it's relatively common for a NW/SE split to take place in summer? 

The hot spell earlier in June was pretty incredible for the W & NW. 

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, draztik said:

Mad thread back to their old tricks - when a model doesn’t show you what you want, call it out/ignore it and say it’s wrong. That’ll work! 

I think the issue is with people speaking like it’s a given.

6z is a cold outlier anyway.

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, draztik said:

Mad thread back to their old tricks - when a model doesn’t show you what you want, call it out/ignore it and say it’s wrong. That’ll work! 

Not a case of that at all - but when it goes against the best 2 models in ecm & ukmo, met office guidance as well as the ensemble suite then your pretty safe.

Maybe you are new to all of this, head over to the beginners section for a tutorial 

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, danm said:

I get your point, but it's relatively common for a NW/SE split to take place in summer? 

The hot spell earlier in June was pretty incredible for the W & NW. 

Indeed  only just over 20c here also. To be honest im loving it  although still no rain.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I think the issue is with people speaking like it’s a given.

6z is a cold outlier anyway.

What's happened? Has the GFS 'downgraded' from a 'magical' 39C to a 'shocking' (summer is over) 27?

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, draztik said:

Mad thread back to their old tricks - when a model doesn’t show you what you want, call it out/ignore it and say it’s wrong. That’ll work! 

What? Its not showing 40c for them on there?? Bless.  

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Not a case of that at all - but when it goes against the best 2 models in ecm & ukmo, met office guidance as well as the ensemble suite then your pretty safe.

Maybe you are new to all of this, head over to the beginners section for a tutorial 

eh? the ukmo is better then the gfs?... last time i looked the gfs was just behind the ecm with the ukmo trailing.

...and the gfs picked up the end of the cold snap in 2010, that too was told to 'ignore' as it was a 'mild outlier'... it wasnt, it was correct long before the ecm or ukmo.

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by mushymanrob

[DAVID SNOW]

GFS12Z Goes against the 'furnace' too.....

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

GFS12Z Goes against the 'furnace' too.....

It may not be as soon as initially modelled. But witb all the signals, it would be so surprising if it didn’t happen.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

GFS12Z Goes against the 'furnace' too.....

I did say it looked increasingly like the background pattern was changing. When you rely on surface features to prolong the heat rather than upper features which are more entrenched like the large HP we saw earlier on in the summer, the whole pattern lies on shaky ground.

In general there has been an overall decline in pressure (though in no way linear) for the past couple of weeks. 

To me it looks as though the Azores HP is having more and more issue with ridging in sufficiently. This will only continue as the PFJ naturally heads further S into August owing to changes in seasonal wavelengths and decreasing solar influences across the Arctic.

Edited July 17, 2018 by CreweCold

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It may not be as soon as initially modelled. But witb all the signals, it would be so surprising if it didn’t happen.

Signals?

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I did say it looked increasingly like the background pattern was changing. When you rely on surface features to prolong the heat rather than upper features which are more entrenched like the large HP we saw earlier on in the summer, the whole pattern lies on shaky ground.

In general there has been an overall decline in pressure (though in no way linear) for the past couple of weeks. 

I’d suggest you read the posts by Singularity and Tamara on the mod thread just for balance.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Signals?

Read the posts from Tamara and Singularlty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d suggest you read the posts by Singularity and Tamara on the mod thread just for balance.

Regardless of what others say, I can see with my own eyes that HP is starting to become less and less influential as time goes on. Each round of attempted troughing gets closer and closer to the UK. So much so that we've seen rain here already. You'd imagine the next round to get much further into the UK.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I did say it looked increasingly like the background pattern was changing. When you rely on surface features to prolong the heat rather than upper features which are more entrenched like the large HP we saw earlier on in the summer, the whole pattern lies on shaky ground.

In general there has been an overall decline in pressure (though in no way linear) for the past couple of weeks. 

To me it looks as though the Azores HP is having more and more issue with ridging in sufficiently. This will only continue as the PFJ naturally heads further S into August owing to changes in seasonal wavelengths and decreasing solar influences across the Arctic.

And that's the problem, IMO: inertia? There's warm/hot air (stuck in seemingly immovable lumps?) almost everywhere in the NH just now, and it appears to be somewhat stable... Which, IMO, means that it's going to take something quite drastic to shift it?

Over to the teleconnection peeps...?

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Regardless of what others say, I can see with my own eyes that HP is starting to become less and less influential as time goes on. Each round of attempted troughing gets closer and closer to the UK. So much so that we've seen rain here already. You'd imagine the next round to get much further into the UK.

Doesn’t necessarily follow though. Who knows what may happen. As has been mentioned the NWP may not have a handle on things.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Doesn’t necessarily follow though. Who knows what may happen. As has been mentioned the NWP may not have a handle on things.

Regardless of what happens, rain will be welcomed by many and the heat lovers have no right to complain at all if it does turn unsettled...given what we've had this summer so far. All good things must come to an end.

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Regardless of what happens, rain will be welcomed by many and the heat lovers have no right to complain at all if it does turn unsettled...given what we've had this summer so far. All good things must come to an end.

Followed by 9 months of crap weather no doubt 

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Read the posts from Tamara and Singularlty.

You seem so confident though, way too many variables when forecasting extremes for us, its never that simple.

[stainesbloke]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Regardless of what happens, rain will be welcomed by many and the heat lovers have no right to complain at all if it does turn unsettled...given what we've had this summer so far. All good things must come to an end.

Well, it has certainly been a fantastic first half to summer across much of the UK. An unsettled interlude is to be expected, this is NW Europe, after all. Hopefully, things won’t go the same way as last August, which wasn’t pleasant. About time we had a good August that people can enjoy. We’ve endured many more than our fair share of dire ones, and I’ll be complaining if this August is crap.

Edited July 17, 2018 by stainesbloke

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Regardless of what happens, rain will be welcomed by many and the heat lovers have no right to complain at all if it does turn unsettled...given what we've had this summer so far. All good things must come to an end.

If the school holidays are ruined by crap weather, I will complain trust me. We don’t work on a credit system. Regardless of the past 3 months, I want a hot dry August. The ‘need rain’ thing is grossly exaggerated.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If the school holidays are ruined by crap weather, I will complain trust me. We don’t work on a credit system. Regardless of the past 3 months, I want a hot dry August. The ‘need rain’ thing is grossly exaggerated.

Complain? Who has promised you 6 weeks of  great  weather?