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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Shine on indeed!

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Met Office long term updates flip like pancakes. Probably one of the most useless forecasts around. Let’s face it nobody has a clue. Other long term signals show August as HP dominated.

We don’t even know how unsettled next week will be, let alone August.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Looks like autumn will arrive in late July as it did last year.

 Lovely first half of summer it was though for sunshine and heat. Rubbish for storms in my area apart from one evening in April. 

I’ll give it a 6/10.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Looks like autumn will arrive in late July as it did last year.

 Lovely first half of summer it was though for sunshine and heat. Rubbish for storms in my area apart from one evening in April. 

I’ll give it a 6/10.

Negative posts are the norm on here, but this really takes the biscuit. Amazing you can hardly find anything good to say about probably the best first half to summer since 1976, and possibly the best May-mid July period on record. While also writing summer off on July 13th!

In the UK you can't usually have it both ways when it comes to storms- would you rather have a summer like 2015 with a dramatic 2 day plume and thunderstorms followed by hardly anything else?

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Negative posts are the norm on here, but this really takes the biscuit. Amazing you can hardly find anything good to say about probably the best first half to summer since 1976, and possibly the best May-mid July period on record. While also writing summer off on July 13th!

In the UK you can't usually have it both ways when it comes to storms- would you rather have a summer like 2015 with a dramatic 2 day plume and thunderstorms followed by hardly anything else?

Hardly anything good to say? I said it was a lovely first half for sunshine and heat. What more do you want from me?

my feeling/worry is this will be just like last year with a front loaded summer, then autumn from July until February with winter appearing in March briefly.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
23 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Hardly anything good to say? I said it was a lovely first half for sunshine and heat. What more do you want from me?

my feeling/worry is this will be just like last year with a front loaded summer, then autumn from July until February with winter appearing in March briefly.

It may be your feeling but there is little to suggest that Autumn will arrive in late July as you put it. We are already starting to see next week’s unsettled spell being moderated.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
35 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It may be your feeling but there is little to suggest that Autumn will arrive in late July as you put it. We are already starting to see next week’s unsettled spell being moderated.

Not really. The eps mean, in terms of mslp, has a negative anomaly over the UK for period July 19th - July 28th... cya @ Heatwave. 

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
4 minutes ago, draztik said:

Not really. 

Which part don’t you agree with. The U.K. based trough has been erased from the ECM and UKMO has higher pressure than the last couple of runs.

And there is nothing whatsoever to suggest that Autumn will start at the end of July. Unless you have something to suggest It will?

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Which part don’t you agree with. The U.K. based trough has been erased from the ECM and UKMO has higher pressure than the last couple of runs.

And there is nothing whatsoever to suggest that Autumn will start at the end of July. Unless you have something to suggest It will?

I know you want the status quo, forever. But the models are showing a deterioration. Heights being pushed to our NE; it’s all slipping away. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Hardly anything good to say? I said it was a lovely first half for sunshine and heat. What more do you want from me?

my feeling/worry is this will be just like last year with a front loaded summer, then autumn from July until February with winter appearing in March briefly.

to be fair, azazel does make a point here... so many recent summers have been 'front loaded'. not only did the hot julys of 06, 13 give way to a wet or lacklustre august, other promising summers like last year and 2010 both of which had really good signs in june with warm/hot sunny spells - gave way to really rubbish second halfs ... so whilst it may be a bit ott to suggest aumtumn starts next week or whenever, suggesting summer heat might be over does have grounds in recent facts.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

August 2013 must've been wet in the north as in the south it certainly wasn't. Had it not been for July, it would've been considered a very decent month, drier and sunnier than 2009.

If we want a classic case of summer going belly up because of an ex tropical storm, look no further than August 2014. Bertha messed August up but we were lucky that Cristobal saved September.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

August 2013 was the warmest august since 2004, drier than average (83% ppn), and the sunniest since 2007. More than anything it probably just highlighted how bad a lot of August months in between were! For me it's been the least reliable/enjoyable summer month for a while - days shortening, and so many bad ones recently.

2017,2015,2014,2011,2010, 2008,2007,2006 & 2005 were all at or below the average of 16.2c, and most of those a long way below, cool and wet. 

9 of the last 13 have been fairly poor, you just don't see that many poor other summer months. 5 of the last 13 June months are average or below, with 6 July's of the last 13 at or below.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
3 hours ago, draztik said:

Not really. The eps mean, in terms of mslp, has a negative anomaly over the UK for period July 19th - July 28th... cya @ Heatwave. 

Some more unsettled weather is likely for a week or so, as you have stated, with the heat slipping away, especially in the N and W. But for how long?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

Just been out in 16c,moderate rain....nearest i'll ever get to heaven me thinks!! Smelt so much cleaner,nature taking a shower and washing off all that muck of the last few weeks. Loved it.

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2 minutes ago, markyo said:

Just been out in 16c,moderate rain....nearest i'll ever get to heaven me thinks!! Smelt so much cleaner,nature taking a shower and washing off all that muck of the last few weeks. Loved it.

Can't arf tell you don't have to interact with mud ,lol

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
10 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Can't arf tell you don't have to interact with mud ,lol

Far from it,love mud..done a bit of winching in my younger days,great fun

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

August 2013 was the warmest august since 2004, drier than average (83% ppn), and the sunniest since 2007. More than anything it probably just highlighted how bad a lot of August months in between were! For me it's been the least reliable/enjoyable summer month for a while - days shortening, and so many bad ones recently.

2017,2015,2014,2011,2010, 2008,2007,2006 & 2005 were all at or below the average of 16.2c, and most of those a long way below, cool and wet. 

9 of the last 13 have been fairly poor, you just don't see that many poor other summer months. 5 of the last 13 June months are average or below, with 6 July's of the last 13 at or below.
 

August also seems to be the most homogenous summer month. June and July are either the best or worst summer months whereas August is pretty tame in comparison. On that list, only 2008 and 2010 were truly awful for the whole duration. Here at least, 2005 was very sunny and days were above average even if nights were at or slightly below, 2006 was dry and warm for the first half of the month, 2007 was very dry and often sunny after that dreadful May-July period, 2011 was also mostly dry but often cloudy, 2014 started well but turned horrific after Bertha passed through, 2015 brought welcome sunshine and warmth during the first half after such a cool wet end to July but sadly went rapidly downhill after midmonth again, and 2017 was just very changeable where some days were absolutely fine but others were somewhat disappointing.

It's high time we had an August like some of the better Junes and Julys we've had!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

August 2013 was the warmest august since 2004, drier than average (83% ppn), and the sunniest since 2007. More than anything it probably just highlighted how bad a lot of August months in between were! For me it's been the least reliable/enjoyable summer month for a while - days shortening, and so many bad ones recently.

2017,2015,2014,2011,2010, 2008,2007,2006 & 2005 were all at or below the average of 16.2c, and most of those a long way below, cool and wet. 

9 of the last 13 have been fairly poor, you just don't see that many poor other summer months. 5 of the last 13 June months are average or below, with 6 July's of the last 13 at or below.
 

what are you basing that on?...

stats can be unreliable... like... if we got a cloudburst we could have over a months worth of rain in 1 day, whilst the rest of the month was dry... on record it would be average or above rain wise...

high overnight minima in august in recent years makes it look like we have had warm augusts... but they were cloudy so the stats give the wrong impression.

for me, i dont care about overnight lows/mean temps, its getting sunshine and dry weather by day with daily max's that matter.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well it’s CET stats, so the county as a whole rather than someone’s back garden. I appreciate within terrible months some people can do ok....but most of those were wet and cool, so pretty disappponting.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Well it’s CET stats, so the county as a whole rather than someone’s back garden. I appreciate within terrible months some people can do ok....but most of those were wet and cool, so pretty disappponting.

yeah thought so... but the flaws i highlighted apply to the cet area - high overnight minima then gives month 'a' as being a warmer then average month when in fact it was overcast. so the cet stats to me dont really mean much.

mean daytime temps though... well thats different..

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

im a bit confused here.... not sure why knockers question was deleted, i too would like to know what the 'sibling model thread' is ?

knocker in the short term thread does not post hyperbolic, knee jerk, or sensationalist material.... only cold hard facts based upon the models which he supports with charts...

not sure what the issue is here?

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Just now, mushymanrob said:

im a bit confused here.... not sure why knockers question was deleted, i too would like to know what the 'sibling model thread' is ?

knocker in the short term thread does not post hyperbolic, knee jerk, or sensationalist material.... only cold hard facts based upon the models which he supports with charts...

not sure what the issue is here?

It's pretty simple really, this is a model banter thread, not a snipe at eachother thread. So if someone wants to ask a question or clarify something, then the pm system is the way forward, rather than making a drama out of not a lot in here. And fwiw, I've edited the original post to remove the comment in any case. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
3 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's pretty simple really, this is a model banter thread, not a snipe at eachother thread. So if someone wants to ask a question or clarify something, then the pm system is the way forward, rather than making a drama out of not a lot in here. And fwiw, I've edited the original post to remove the comment in any case. 

fair play paul, but i saw nothing that i thought was a 'snipe' really... but hey ho... :)

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