Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Evening thunder]

Why is the UKMO consistently being less strong with the high with lower 850's, and now further west?

Maybe that's why the Met Office are only forecasting 23-24C maxima right out to Tuesday for me.. GFS and especially ECM was giving 28-30C constantly.
However the ECM has now downgraded significantly.

Looks like my highest maxima of the year will be Monday's then, occurring a day after 14mm of rain to limit potential maxima via damp ground, and the obligatory altocumulus passing over the sun from 1-4pm, clearing just after the sea breeze arrives.

And it seems just as the Met Office jump on the risky band-wagon of believing the models out to two weeks, it starts to slip away from us

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Why is the UKMO consistently being less strong with the high with lower 850's, and now further west?

Maybe that's why the Met Office are only forecasting 23-24C maxima right out to Tuesday for me.. GFS and especially ECM was giving 28-30C constantly.
However the ECM has now downgraded significantly.

Looks like my highest maxima of the year will be Monday's then, occurring a day after 14mm of rain to limit potential maxima via damp ground, and the obligatory altocumulus passing over the sun from 1-4pm, clearing just after the sea breeze arrives.

And it seems just as the Met Office jump on the risky band-wagon of believing the models out to two weeks, it starts to slip away from us

So you’re declaring that you’ve already had your highest temp of the year and it’s only July 4th? Not even reached the peak of summer yet.

Edited July 4, 2018 by Djdazzle

[Evening thunder]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So you’re declaring that you’ve already had your highest temp of the year and it’s only July 4th? Not even reached the peak of summer yet.

Probably, because it's been difficult to get temps that high here (Monday was actually my highest temp in 10 years of records, but it had been about time I got 30C), and the charts that would challenge it look like slipping away again (unless I believe the GFS perhaps).

Of course I'd have had a higher reading without the unexpected significant rain/thunder on the one day I wasn't here, and more significantly cloud that just conveyed over the sun for 3 hours at peak warmth.

I know I'm being fussy but it's just those little frustrating things that often seem to happen here.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Lovely.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Iceaxecrampon said:

Lovely.

Yuk 

[Djdazzle]

17 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Lovely.

Disgusting. Good job it won’t happen.

[cheese]

Today was a bit disappointing - it was 28C by 12:30pm, 30C could have been achieved easily, but then the rising clouds hit a cap and filled in the sky and now it's only 24C and cloudy. Totally pointless clouds that don't serve a purpose.

Edited July 5, 2018 by cheese

[DAVID SNOW]

Some confusion in the MOD thread.

Next Monday looks warm/v warm, there after temps return to average/warm, summer continues.

[Djdazzle]

I think the confusion comes from the fact that some are over positive with some over negative.

The charts are nothing special though.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Lovely.

Since the ground has become rock hard and cracked, torrential rain is not is wanted. This is what causes flash floods because the excess water just runs off.

It's moderate steady rain that is really needed. 

Edited July 5, 2018 by Weather-history

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

37 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Since the ground has become rock hard and cracked, torrential rain is not is wanted. This is what causes flash floods because the excess water just runs off.

It's moderate steady rain that is really needed. 

My favourite weather is usually the stuff nobody wants - ie: severe, unexpected and disruptive weather

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

My favourite weather is usually the stuff nobody wants - ie: severe, unexpected and disruptive weather

In other words interesting weather that we can get excited about as weather enthusiasts.It's really strange why so so many folk on a weather website hanker after the same weather week after week after week. Very weird.

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

In other words interesting weather that we can get excited about as weather enthusiasts.It's really strange why so so many folk on a weather website hanker after the same weather week after week after week. Very weird.

I do have some clouds tonight

[Snowyowl9]

20 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I do have some clouds tonight

Had 4 to 5 hours of cloud covering the sun today and even a few spots of rain incredible.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

In other words interesting weather that we can get excited about as weather enthusiasts.It's really strange why so so many folk on a weather website hanker after the same weather week after week after week. Very weird.

I’d like thunder to happen week after week. Is that bad?

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

In other words interesting weather that we can get excited about as weather enthusiasts.It's really strange why so so many folk on a weather website hanker after the same weather week after week after week. Very weird.

Not that weird to me - it’s the same in winter, people just want weeks of cold and snow. That’s just the equivalent of what most people want in summer - weeks of sun and high temperatures....for once this year we are getting it. I’d say receiving zero rainfall in a calendar month like we did here in June is pretty extreme!

[Snowy L]

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/photos/a.1423656947857402.1073741825.1377757209114043/2268836253339463/?type=3&theater

 

If we get a southerly plume I think the record will be broken

Edited July 7, 2018 by Snowy L

[parrotingfantasist]

 

Far NW Temperatures going to be brutally suppressed next week (16C) with constant misery cloud. Oh dear..

[DAVID SNOW]

"Lovely weather further south"....! You have to laugh

Summer continues... for most.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No idea where to put this...

I mentioned a few weeks ago in relation to a post talking about the SSW earlier on in the year and wondered whether we'd see a cold opening half of winter 2018 (as some late season strong SSW events have been followed by cold the proceeding winter).

Well the CFS averaged runs are even more strongly pointing towards a December Euro trough...yes I know it's ages off!

I've been following these charts for a few years now though and it's the first time I've seen such a well defined Euro trough show up on these mean charts in the months leading up to winter...

Certainly makes a change from seeing a Euro high there.

Edited July 8, 2018 by CreweCold

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

No idea where to put this...

I mentioned a few weeks ago in relation to a post talking about the SSW earlier on in the year and wondered whether we'd see a cold opening half of winter 2018 (as some late season strong SSW events have been followed by cold the proceeding winter).

Well the CFS averaged runs are even more strongly pointing towards a December Euro trough...yes I know it's ages off!

I've been following these charts for a few years now though and it's the first time I've seen such a well defined Euro trough show up on these mean charts in the months leading up to winter...

I feel there's a potential for a fairly severe winter 18 -19  who knows lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

To make things more interesting, the Pacific side pattern on that CFS chart looks a hell of a lot like the post SSW set up in the late Feb/early March spell just gone

 

 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

13 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I feel there's a potential for a fairly severe winter 18 -19  who knows lol

Winter 62/63 was the most severe in living memory, however summer '62 was appalling: LP dominated, cloudy, wet and chilly.  The best word to describe summer '63 was mediocre with a wet end to August. However autumn '63 was quite spectacular: Warm and sunny, much better than the preceding summer.

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

No idea where to put this...

 

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Edited July 9, 2018 by Weather-history

[knocker]

I notice that the ecm is now flavor of the evening in the MOD thread. I assume then then the earlier waxing lyrical about the UKMO and a plume has temporarily been put on the back burner.

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by knocker