Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[MP-R]

Yeah June 2014 didn't have a 'special' hot spell as such, but was consistently warm and sunny at least here in Bristol, and reached 27-28C on a few occasions. July and early August had the actual heat though, before Bertha came and blew in an early autumn...

[markyo]

9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

what hot spell in june 2014? a couple of days?...

its true, we might not get anything else, but i strongly suspect that because you dont want any heat, your clutching at straws trying to play down the reality that atm theres no sign of a major pattern change and that high pressure is likely to be the main player this summer.

Oops,ment 2015,sorry! Getting old,memory is slipping. Must be this heat

[markyo]

9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

oh per-leez... will you stop with this attempt at guilt tripping those of us who like heat by pointing out the negative effects it will have on wildlife?.. which surprisingly has survived all the great extremes of the past. do you think the same about the damage cold does?

Of course i do in regard to cold,heat and cold both kill,that's the reason i'm praying for no long heatwave. No guilt trip,just don't like suffering wildlife. Felt the same in March. I remember 76,how it decimated large sections of the UK wildlife.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Of course i do in regard to cold,heat and cold both kill,that's the reason i'm praying for no long heatwave. No guilt trip,just don't like suffering wildlife. Felt the same in March. I remember 76,how it decimated large sections of the UK wildlife.

i too remember 76, and we will get nothing like 76 this year, thats my point, because '76' wasnt just '76' it was 75 too, a culmination of long term drought and its that that caused the problems more then the heat .

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i too remember 76, and we will get nothing like 76 this year, thats my point, because '76' wasnt just '76' it was 75 too, a culmination of long term drought and its that that caused the problems more then the heat .

Correct and we will get nothing like any decent summer if today’s output is correct. Maybe the hoodoo of years ending in 8 has struck after all.

[Astral Goat Juice]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Of course i do in regard to cold,heat and cold both kill,that's the reason i'm praying for no long heatwave. No guilt trip,just don't like suffering wildlife. Felt the same in March. I remember 76,how it decimated large sections of the UK wildlife.

The weather will do whatever the weather wants to do, it's on the extreme end of the spectrum to criticise someone begging for even 40 / 50C and therefore is literally no real necessity to point score - I don't believe for one second anyone on this forum wants wildlife to suffer or agriculture, but in the grand scheme of things, it's completely out of every human beings hands & a pointless comment to make. 

[DAVID SNOW]

12 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

The weather will do whatever the weather wants to do, it's on the extreme end of the spectrum to criticise someone begging for even 40 / 50C and therefore is literally no real necessity to point score - I don't believe for one second anyone on this forum wants wildlife to suffer or agriculture, but in the grand scheme of things, it's completely out of every human beings hands & a pointless comment to make. 

Anyone in the uk  begging for temps of 40 to 50c has completely lost the plot at this point, way beyond criticism.

Same in winter if its -40 or 50 you crave.

[markyo]

14 hours ago, markyo said:

So you would be happy with the devastation and suffering to wildlife that would cause? The misery and financial ruin of the UK agricultural industry? Wow you must really hate weather then!

 

12 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes. 

 

1 hour ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

The weather will do whatever the weather wants to do, it's on the extreme end of the spectrum to criticise someone begging for even 40 / 50C and therefore is literally no real necessity to point score - I don't believe for one second anyone on this forum wants wildlife to suffer or agriculture, but in the grand scheme of things, it's completely out of every human beings hands & a pointless comment to make. 

Well there's always one i suppose!

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Correct and we will get nothing like any decent summer if today’s output is correct. Maybe the hoodoo of years ending in 8 has struck after all.

i wouldnt worry, even 76 wasnt wall to wall heat from june to sept. there were cloudier cooler spells, as the was in 95 and 90, and most other long hot summers.

theres no major pattern chang in the offing, just a relaxation of the current hot spell which i make SO FAR (assuming upto thurs which appears to be nailed) the 4th best this century, behind 03,06,13, but with july and august to go, its place is very likely to rise....and if not, its still the best summer spell for 5 years and the 4th best in the last 18....no make that since 1995, so 23 years.

cannot complain at this, although it would be frustrating if it turned extremely wet!

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

i wouldnt worry, even 76 wasnt wall to wall heat from june to sept. there were cloudier cooler spells, as the was in 95 and 90, and most other long hot summers.

theres no major pattern chang in the offing, just a relaxation of the current hot spell which i make SO FAR (assuming upto thurs which appears to be nailed) the 4th best this century, behind 03,06,13, but with july and august to go, its place is very likely to rise....and if not, its still the best summer spell for 5 years and the 4th best in the last 18....no make that since 1995, so 23 years.

cannot complain at this, although it would be frustrating if it turned extremely wet!

Your perhaps forgetting last June and early July, was a very summery spell down this way at least.

[mushymanrob]

49 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Your perhaps forgetting last June and early July, was a very summery spell down this way at least.

"down this way at least"  ... see the error here?... 76 wasnt "down here at least" nor was 90, 89, 83, 95, 06 etc etc etc, they were nationwide hot spells that lasted more then 24-48 hours which is all we have had since 2013.

[DAVID SNOW]

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

"down this way at least"  ... see the error here?... 76 wasnt "down here at least" nor was 90, 89, 83, 95, 06 etc etc etc, they were nationwide hot spells that lasted more then 24-48 hours which is all we have had since 2013.

In my opinion, you don't have to go back as far as you say to find a good spell of summer weather, again June 2017 was very 'good'  have a look at the CET(larger area) for Junes since say 1976.

The CET for June 2017 was 1.9 degrees above average.

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

In my opinion, you don't have to go back as far as you say to find a good spell of summer weather, again June 2017 was very 'good'  have a look at the CET(larger area) for Junes since say 1976.

The CET for June 2017 was 1.9 degrees above average.

Another odd argument (one that I have used on many occasions myself) is that super, duper high temps will only happen should the previous summer also been a long, dry hottie...

I can only remember 100F being breached once - in 2003. Now, out of all the adjectives one might use to describe 2002's summer - long, dry and hottie weren't among them. As I recall!

IMO, each summer (just like each winter) is a unique thing, and no two can ever be the same...waffle, waffle, waffle...

[Seasonality]

I for one will only be satisfied when the temperature rises above 56.7C (the highest verified recorded temperature - Furnace Creek Ranch California) and the rainfall of the dry valleys of Antarctica. Anything less I shall disregard as unworthy of my attention.

[Weather-history]

46 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

In my opinion, you don't have to go back as far as you say to find a good spell of summer weather, again June 2017 was very 'good'  have a look at the CET(larger area) for Junes since say 1976.

The CET for June 2017 was 1.9 degrees above average.

CET for August 2004 was 17.6C but it was a total washout. It's the last time the CET for August got above 17.5C 

June 2017 although had a high CET was wetter than average. Temperature alone is not enough to judge how good a month was. Rain days and sunshine totals have also to be considered.

Edited June 26, 2018 by Weather-history

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

CET for August 2004 was 17.6C but it was a total washout. It's the last time the CET for August got above 17.5C 

June 2017 although had a high CET was wetter than average. Temperature alone is not enough to judge how good a month was. Rain days and sunshine totals have also to be considered.

Of course, do you have last Junes sunshine totals?

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Of course, do you have last Junes sunshine totals?

I think it was about 187hrs or so overall. Some places were sunnier, some places were duller. 

[DAVID SNOW]

28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think it was about 187hrs or so overall. Some places were sunnier, some places were duller. 

Thanks for the stats, sorry to be a pain but was it sunnier than average, overall ?

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Thanks for the stats, sorry to be a pain but was it sunnier than average, overall ?

Just a touch.

[carinthian]

Crap summer here in the Eastern Alps , day after day of cloud and cool temps. Only 10c this afternoon. Look on envy at Manchester and Liverpool ,currently on 30C. Cannot really complain as we have had a run of very hot summers over here. Just that the high is in the wrong place and favours Blighty big time. You deserve a proper warm summer for all, especially up in the North.

 C

[78/79]

8 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i too remember 76, and we will get nothing like 76 this year, thats my point, because '76' wasnt just '76' it was 75 too, a culmination of long term drought and its that that caused the problems more then the heat .

I recall 76  very well ,especially being run around Bovington Camp as a boy soldier in the Junior Leaders Regiment. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

CET for August 2004 was 17.6C but it was a total washout. It's the last time the CET for August got above 17.5C 

June 2017 although had a high CET was wetter than average. Temperature alone is not enough to judge how good a month was. Rain days and sunshine totals have also to be considered.

exactly,

what matters imho is temps, sunshine, and dry days... i say dry days because in a storm you can get a months worth in a few hours, which would suggest an average month yet 29 days were dry!

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

In my opinion, you don't have to go back as far as you say to find a good spell of summer weather, again June 2017 was very 'good'  have a look at the CET(larger area) for Junes since say 1976.

The CET for June 2017 was 1.9 degrees above average.

true, june last year was promising, but the warm/hot days came in 1s and 2s, no one really remembers them. its high pressure dominance over several consecutive days like we are enjoying now that will get remembered.

lets face it, this end to june is making this the best june spell since.....?...... i cannot remember!

 

[DAVID SNOW]

35 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

exactly,

what matters imho is temps, sunshine, and dry days... i say dry days because in a storm you can get a months worth in a few hours, which would suggest an average month yet 29 days were dry!

So last June was good then? Sunshine slightly above average, temps nearly 2 degrees above average, and it rained a bit. not bad.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

So last June was good then? Sunshine slightly above average, temps nearly 2 degrees above average, and it rained a bit. not bad.

Wasn't last June's +2C anomaly largely due to hot, humid nights? Anywho, I doubt your average lettuce could give two hoots either way...Then again, some nutters have claimed that carrots scream, when you pull them. So - who knows how Mother Nature works?