Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[philglossop]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed it was. And, once the hosepipe/sprinkler ban came into force - from which, privately-owned golf courses were 'mysteriously' exempt - things got even worse...

Whilst I was only 2 at the time, my late Nan had a wonderful story of having the only clean car in the village where she lived. She knew of a stream hidden away which didn’t dry up and she’d drive it there to wash it  

 

Hosepipe bans are at best a ruddy nightmare 

[Evening thunder]

Hopefully the ECM is right as I can't complain at that.

Although I wouldn't say it's quite 'hot' here, Met Office show it not exceeding 22C here until Thursday, then up to 25C. I feel it may be over-doing the effect of sea breezes but even so.

A fantastic forecast though with a sunshine symbol every day of the next 7, not seen that for a while. Looks like dryness will continue to be the most notable theme, just without the interest/novelty factor of it being as hot as it could have been.

[abruzzi spur]

On 20/06/2018 at 07:10, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sat 30th will be the day the hot spell ends, too bad for heat fans on a saturday, there isn't one,although this one getting better with temps around 21°, 30th though I predict vile with a howling NW'ly

How's that looking?

[Mokidugway]

Just now, abruzzi spur said:

How's that looking?

How ya doin Abruzzi 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

How's that looking?

Still the case on GFS, with horrid NE'ly, UKMO and EC though remains hot into weekend

[abruzzi spur]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still the case on GFS, with horrid NE'ly, UKMO and EC though remains hot into weekend

Horrid NE'ly vs vile NW'ly then? Or it could just be a lovely summer's day without rain or wind (ups). Whaddya reckon?

[Mokidugway]

I'll take a northeasterly any day of the week ,lol

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

I'll take a northeasterly any day of the week ,lol

Yes - in January!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Horrid NE'ly vs vile NW'ly then? Or it could just be a lovely summer's day without rain or wind (ups). Whaddya reckon?

look at models? can find them on meteociel.fr, still up in the air for weekend, but half way house suggests cooler

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes - in January!

Sadly  a waste of time for me as Lakeland massif kills any westward bound precipitation

[Leo97t]

All I want is a humid southerly. Not because I like dying during the day but because I love the warm evenings you get with them

[abruzzi spur]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

look at models? can find them on meteociel.fr, still up in the air for weekend, but half way house suggests cooler

Pop back and let us all know if it's a vile NW'ly or a horrid NE'ly on Saturday.  

[mushymanrob]

20 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I would have thought a summer like 1976 would be as disastrous as a summer like 2012 for a gardener? No rain, grass is parched, ground is rock hard, plants dying of thirst and scorched by a blazing sun. 

i was employed by the council in 76, so my wages were safe, lol. if the grass browns off now - i dont care, im drawing a pension, so its not a disastrous or hard hitting financially as 1995 was - but even then half of my income was contract, so again, weatherproof.

2012 wasnt disastrous, it was just unpleasant  as long wet growth = harder work in unpleasant conditions.


yep, im getting a 1995 vibe about this summer too   bring it on!

 

[Methuselah]

So, the easterlies might well be coming back? But, there's one difference: the North Sea SSTs must - unless something has gone very wrong withe laws of physics - be higher now than they were last-time round? Ergo-ish, any clag that does spread onshore ought to thin and break-up sooner?

Too many ifs, buts and maybes in there for me, though: so here's to days of endless drizzle-laden murk! Reverse psychology works every time...Doesn't it?

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, the easterlies might well be coming back? But, there's one difference: the North Sea SSTs must - unless something has gone very wrong withe laws of physics - be higher now than they were last-time round? Ergo-ish, any clag that does spread onshore ought to thin and break-up sooner?

Too many ifs, buts and maybes in there for me, though: so here's to days of endless drizzle-laden murk! Reverse psychology works every time...Doesn't it?

Also depends on how moist the airstream is.

i remember in 1995 there was a gentle easterly drift with low cloud in London until around 9am. The cloud then broke with the temperature peaking at 32C.

Obviously it would be colder near the coast but easterlies can deliver hot conditions.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7th August 2003, never lifted at all here, think it was only 19° max, day before was 35°

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Also depends on how moist the airstream is.

i remember in 1995 there was a gentle easterly drift with low cloud in London until around 9am. The cloud then broke with the temperature peaking at 32C.

Obviously it would be colder near the coast but easterlies can deliver hot conditions.

Yes, but in August the North Sea is warmer. Low cloud is generally less of an issue in August - very rare in fact. June can be a reall ball ache for those of us in the east.

I'm just hoping that the murk doesn't spread this far inland, and if it does, that it breaks up quickly. So sick of stupid easterlies.

Edited June 25, 2018 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

E'lys though so rare in Aug, more common April to June

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, but in August the North Sea is warmer. Low cloud is generally less of an issue in August. June can be a reall ball ache for those of us in the east.

I would have thought there would be a difference between early June and the end of June. It's July on Sunday.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

7th August 2003, never lifted at all here, think it was only 19° max, day before was 35°

I remember that but that wasn't because of an easterly. We had the same clag here.

[cheese]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I would have thought there would be difference between early and the end of June. It's July on Sunday.

Not sure when it becomes less of an issue exactly, but July here is much sunnier than June, so probably sometime around late June or early July.

Funnily enough though, May is the sunniest month of the year here, so..

Also, on 7 August 2003 we had a max of 23C. Can't remember if it was cloudy or not though. The previous 3 days had been 30-31C, then temperatures reached 30-32C the next 2 days, so it probably was.

Edited June 25, 2018 by cheese

[mb018538]

SSTs do indeed vary a lot between June and July....take Cleethorpes on the east coast for example.

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/cleethorpes.htm

In June the temperature is just over 12c, this rises nearly 3c to just under 15c by July, so the difference is quite significant - therefore the cloud deck should be a bit less dense than earlier in the year, and not get so far inland.

[markyo]

Thankfully the chances of a repeat of a 76 summer are very low,looking like as we are going more into July more normal summer weather will return. Much needed for wildlife and farmers!

Edited June 25, 2018 by markyo

[knocker]

I don't normally look at the gfs 06 but because of this morning's differences I did have a quick shufty and can you believe any of it past the short range? o At Sat 00 it is not a million miles from the ecm, perhaps not digging the upper trough to the west quite as far south, but it quickly goes on to shunt a fragment of  Canadian vortex lobe south east into the Atlantic which is completely at odds with the previous run and the ecm  Back to not looking at every det. run

Edited June 25, 2018 by knocker

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Thankfully the chances of a repeat of a 76 summer are very low,looking like as we are going more into July more normal summer weather will return. Much needed for wildlife and farmers!

Indeed. Can see a big peat fire on the hills above Saddleworth. The ground is crying out for moisture.