Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

FANTASTIC WEEK AHEAD!

and if this is all we get, its still makes it a better summer then 11/12 previous.

Indeed, a truly wonderful week coming up of HOT summer weather with very little cloud about- I also think the temperatures could get higher than currently predicted due to the dry ground.

It reminds me a lot of the setup on the week of July 17th 2006. The Sunday was very similar to today with a cool night (single figures widely) and low dew point, before warming up to the mid 20s in the afternoon with very strong sunshine.

The difference then to now was it was 3-4 weeks later so heat had more time to build up, SSTs higher and the ground had dried up even more than now. So temps won't get that high but still above 28C for many from Tuesday- definitely in the hot category.

I've learnt by now that no matter how good the setup, astonishingly you will still get people moaning. Just think guys, we could have a 2007 repeat! Just get out and enjoy it.

[DAVID SNOW]

consistency over time is what you should be looking for from the models, getting over exited about a single run in isolation (showing blizzards or heat waves) will lead to disappointment..... Again

Just my opinion of course.

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Indeed, a truly wonderful week coming up of HOT summer weather with very little cloud about- I also think the temperatures could get higher than currently predicted due to the dry ground.

It reminds me a lot of the setup on the week of July 17th 2006. The Sunday was very similar to today with a cool night (single figures widely) and low dew point, before warming up to the mid 20s in the afternoon with very strong sunshine.

The difference then to now was it was 3-4 weeks later so heat had more time to build up, SSTs higher and the ground had dried up even more than now. So temps won't get that high but still above 28C for many from Tuesday- definitely in the hot category.

I've learnt by now that no matter how good the setup, astonishingly you will still get people moaning. Just think guys, we could have a 2007 repeat! Just get out and enjoy it.

the good news is that imho this is only the first course, lol, i fully expect, based on past hot summers and no hint of a pattern change, that the main course will emerge by mid july when a lengthy hot spell will surpass this on.

it must be remembered that even in 76, 83, 95 etc it wasnt 'hot' every day for 2 months! (or longer), there were periods of less sunny, less hot, spells

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

the good news is that imho this is only the first course, lol, i fully expect, based on past hot summers and no hint of a pattern change, that the main course will emerge by mid july when a lengthy hot spell will surpass this on.

it must be remembered that even in 76, 83, 95 etc it wasnt 'hot' every day for 2 months! (or longer), there were periods of less sunny, less hot, spells

Yes agreed and this summer is ticking all the boxes in terms of patterns of the classic summers of the past- an early hot spell in April/ early May (1995, 2003, 2006 had notable spells), a warm, dry June and it seems nearly all of them have a hot spell at the end of June/beginning of July which then leads into a longer spell of hot weather after a break of slightly cooler conditions.

It's certainly rare to get a spell such as this that then isn't repeated later on- often after only a short break of cooler weather.

Seems to be that the 'default' temperatures are higher this year as well. So even if we lose the heat I imagine temps will be above average still. 

[mushymanrob]

14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes agreed and this summer is ticking all the boxes in terms of patterns of the classic summers of the past- an early hot spell in April/ early May (1995, 2003, 2006 had notable spells), a warm, dry June and it seems nearly all of them have a hot spell at the end of June/beginning of July which then leads into a longer spell of hot weather after a break of slightly cooler conditions.

It's certainly rare to get a spell such as this that then isn't repeated later on- often after only a short break of cooler weather.

Seems to be that the 'default' temperatures are higher this year as well. So even if we lose the heat I imagine temps will be above average still. 

you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer.

i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer.

i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.

I was in Scotty in 1992 - it was fantastic (up near 28C) right up until I went camping, on St Swithun's Day - the rest, as they say, is history!And didn't 2005 also get off to an absolute flyer, only to be followed by a July and August to forget? I don't know. I've forgotten!

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was in Scotty in 1992 - it was fantastic (up near 28C) right up until I went camping, on St Swithun's Day - the rest, as they say, is history!And didn't 2005 also get off to an absolute flyer, only to be followed by a July and August to forget? I don't know. I've forgotten!

tbh i dont know... maybe ive forgotten them, i cannot remember a week long hot spell though in those years. i think (like last year) there were possibly 1-2 day hot bits.

 

[Weather-history]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer.

i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.

Oddly the summers of 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all had pretty decent Junes but fell away during July.

Summer 1957 is a good example, that had a heatwave at the end of the June and was very sunny but then was followed by a disappointing July and August.

 

Edited June 24, 2018 by Weather-history

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

tbh i dont know... maybe ive forgotten them, i cannot remember a week long hot spell though in those years. i think (like last year) there were possibly 1-2 day hot bits.

 

Aye remember 2005 at Glastonbury amazing start then flash floods that nearly shut down the festival ,up to 6 ft of standing water in places

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Oddly the summers of 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all had pretty decent Junes but fell away during July.

Summer 1957 is a good example, that had a heatwave at the end of the June and was very sunny but then was followed by a disappointing July and August.

 

I think I can even recall 1970's thundery breakdown (2nd July?). I don't think I can recall a transformation so total as that one was: form weeks of warm sunshine to weeks of utter grot - all in the space of a few hours...Cracking T&L though!

[markyo]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Oddly the summers of 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all had pretty decent Junes but fell away during July.

Summer 1957 is a good example, that had a heatwave at the end of the June and was very sunny but then was followed by a disappointing July and August.

 

One can only hope that 1957 repeats its self this year! Least the days are getting shorter now so something positive at least....I might be on my own on that one i suspect.

[markyo]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I can even recall 1970's thundery breakdown (2nd July?). I don't think I can recall a transformation so total as that one was: form weeks of warm sunshine to weeks of utter grot - all in the space of a few hours...Cracking T&L though!

I was far to young to remember those days Ed,....... I can remember as a small child in the late 80's(ok that's pushing it i agree) the weather turn in Richmond North Yorkshire where i lived, in a few days the river Swale was bursting its banks and the storms where incredible. It was like nature saying that's your lot for this year,get the brolly ready.

[Bristawl Si]

Forecast for here in Bristol is Sunny and hot this week. Temps touching 30c by end of week. Is that not hot?

Summer has been brill here - in fact since end April. Luverly!!

[Wildswimmer Pete]

16 hours ago, cheese said:

A summer where at least July and August are warmer, sunnier and drier than average. If June ends up being the best this summer has to offer then it will go down as a bad one.

We deserve a decent summer after a.) previous poor to middling summers and b.) that awful, five-month-long winter we've recently endured.  This summer does have the scent of 1976.

[mushymanrob]

52 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Oddly the summers of 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all had pretty decent Junes but fell away during July.

Summer 1957 is a good example, that had a heatwave at the end of the June and was very sunny but then was followed by a disappointing July and August.

 

may and early june 70 was scorching, there was one bit when the sky turned red, you could look at the sun , my first memery of saharan dust.

fair play, i stand corrected although in my defence i wasnt around for most of those summers lol.

[philglossop]

Whilst it’s not a 76 vibe just yet- it’s the making of a 1995 summer. That ebbed and flowed with High Pressure to begin with.

 

The jet has gone far north and the Atlantic is in full slumber. That’ll do me. I’ll take weeks of mid 20s to high 20s over high 30s every time. Makes it more memorable imho. 

[Scorcher]

2005 was a very decent summer overall but by no means a classic. Yes it had a hot finish to June and beginning of July but the rest of it was by no means a disaster.

There really aren't many examples, certainly in my lifetime of summers that have had spells like this in late June and then have ended up disastrous.

[sundog]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

One can only hope that 1957 repeats its self this year! Least the days are getting shorter now so something positive at least....I might be on my own on that one i suspect.

Not a fan of heat myself. Won't mind too much if the heat lasts for a week or so but then starts to FO after.

[Djdazzle]

I think any decent summer should have at least a couple of days reaching 90F along with other extended warm spells. It seems that even in poorer summers, achieving 90F is the norm these days.

[Weather-history]

54 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

may and early june 70 was scorching, there was one bit when the sky turned red, you could look at the sun , my first memery of saharan dust.

fair play, i stand corrected although in my defence i wasnt around for most of those summers lol.

I would have thought a summer like 1976 would be as disastrous as a summer like 2012 for a gardener? No rain, grass is parched, ground is rock hard, plants dying of thirst and scorched by a blazing sun. 

Edited June 24, 2018 by Weather-history

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I would have thought a summer like 1976 would be as disastrous as a summer like 2012 for a gardener? No rain, grass is parched, ground is rock hard, plants dying of thirst and scorched by a blazing sun. 

Indeed it was. And, once the hosepipe/sprinkler ban came into force - from which, privately-owned golf courses were 'mysteriously' exempt - things got even worse...

Edited June 24, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Djdazzle]

Did June 2006 get to 30C?

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Did June 2006 get to 30C?

Yes, 12th June. 

Closest we have come to breaking the 13th June anomaly.

Edited June 24, 2018 by Weather-history

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Yes, 12th June. 

Closest we have come to breaking the 13th June anomaly.

Thanks. Do you know where I can access the date records?

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Thanks. Do you know where I can access the date records?

http://www.torro.org.uk/hightempsyear.php