Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Greed. They want to see how long it will last and if it is not enough, the whinge begins.

I also think some people suffer from two dimensional thinking. Not every weather type is the same. Yet they keep coming back with the same idea. 

4-5 days does not a summer make. If we get repeating patterns like that throughout July and August then great. Otherwise, people are well entitled to be disappointed.

[markyo]

17 minutes ago, cheese said:

4-5 days does not a summer make. If we get repeating patterns like that throughout July and August then great. Otherwise, people are well entitled to be disappointed.

Thankfully in the UK repeated patterns over 2 to 3 months are very rare.(i'd hate to be stuck in the up coming weather for the next 2 months,but that is personal). The last i can remember is winter 2013/14. Not nice at all.

Edited June 23, 2018 by markyo

[Weather-history]

17 minutes ago, cheese said:

4-5 days does not a summer make. If we get repeating patterns like that throughout July and August then great. Otherwise, people are well entitled to be disappointed.

The CET for this month is currently 15.8C, it will probably be the driest summer month since August 1995 for England and Wales and looks like being sunnier than average.

You talk as if this we have not had a decent spell of weather until now and it looks like just a 5 day wonder when infact the weather has been pretty benign since the start of May.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Weather-history

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The CET for this month is currently 15.8C, it will probably be the driest summer month since August 1995 for England and Wales and looks like being sunnier than average.

You talk as if this we have not had a decent spell of weather until now and it looks like just a 5 day wonder when infact the weather has been pretty benign since the start of May.

The only remarkable aspect of this month has been the dryness, otherwise temperatures in this part of the world are similar to last June.

It's been a perfectly pleasant month of course - I'm not implying that it's been bad - but if we get 5 days of warmth of heat and then that's it for the rest of the summer then people will definitely be disappointed. Not saying that will happen but given the way summers have been in recent years it wouldn't be surprising. There have been many false dawns.

Edited June 23, 2018 by cheese

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The CET for this month is currently 15.8C, it will probably be the driest summer month since August 1995 for England and Wales and looks like being sunnier than average.

You talk as if this we have not had a decent spell of weather until now and it looks like just a 5 day wonder when infact the weather has been pretty benign since the start of May.

Must admit spring and summer up to now has been pretty decent with small interludes of poor weather ,if this continues through rest of the summer and early autumn I'll be happy.

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, cheese said:

4-5 days does not a summer make. If we get repeating patterns like that throughout July and August then great. Otherwise, people are well entitled to be disappointed.

What would make a 'summer' for you, Cheese - 766 consecutive days with temps above 38C?

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What would make a 'summer' for you, Cheese - 766 consecutive days with temps above 38C?

A summer where at least July and August are warmer, sunnier and drier than average. If June ends up being the best this summer has to offer then it will go down as a bad one.

Edited June 23, 2018 by cheese

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What would make a 'summer' for you, Cheese - 766 consecutive days with temps above 38C?

 

[cheese]

I'm more of a wensleydale man myself.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I'm more of a wensleydale man myself.

In which case, kindly wear the right trousers next time!

[Evening thunder]

Some will say I shouldn't complain but there's definitely continuing movement away from something particularly notable.

Now, it still looks like a very nice week in a nice May/June period so I'm not complaining so much from the 'summer feel factor' point of view, but the interest point of view. It seems a rare chance at something more special/notable has been missed again. The only one I can think of that's verified recently is the 'Beast from the east'.

That's the problem in this country, it's so hard to get conditions that even the Pacific NW can get most years, that it matters when it's downgraded, at least to me. In most other mid latitude climates the next thunderstorm, snow, heat, cold etc wouldn't be far away.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Evening thunder

[DAVID SNOW]

Have been away on holiday again so catching up with the MOD thread, and it seems earlier excitement regarding next weeks heat wave was a tad premature, looks warm for sure but thankfully no heat wave.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Have been away on holiday again so catching up with the MOD thread, and it seems earlier excitement regarding next weeks heat wave was a tad premature, looks warm for sure but thankfully no heat wave.

Yes looks good, real heat been downgraded, still 30C possible though for SE, cooler here exposed to the north sea

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes looks good, real heat been downgraded, still 30C possible though for SE, cooler here exposed to the north sea

Aye summers over ,miserable 30 c ,  so disappointed always next year I suppose..

[cheese]

42 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Some will say I shouldn't complain but there's definitely continuing movement away from something particularly notable.

Now, it still looks like a very nice week in a nice May/June period so I'm not complaining so much from the 'summer feel factor' point of view, but the interest point of view. It seems a rare chance at something more special/notable has been missed again. The only one I can think of that's verified recently is the 'Beast from the east'.

That's the problem in this country, it's so hard to get conditions that even the Pacific NW can get most years, that it matters when it's downgraded, at least to me. In most other mid latitude climates the next thunderstorm, snow, heat, cold etc wouldn't be far away.

Seems like we're alone in that thinking. Where have all the weather enthusiasts gone?

Edited June 23, 2018 by cheese

[DAVID SNOW]

47 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes looks good, real heat been downgraded, still 30C possible though for SE, cooler here exposed to the north sea

Looking at what the experts are predicting for my area in Southern England next week:

Mon max 26

Tue max  24

Wed max 22

Thu max  27

Fri max 25

Be interesting to see if a 30 pops up somewhere as you say.

Wont be West Yorkshire, that's for sure.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

great temps Dave, no-one can complain at that

[parrotingfantasist]

If theres a phrase which annoys me the most it is this "Only the far North/North West".

 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

If theres a phrase which annoys me the most it is this "Only the far North/North West".

 

Meaning north west Ireland

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

great temps Dave, no-one can complain at that

Nope. no complaints from me, its late June after all and not sizzling.

[parrotingfantasist]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Meaning north west Ireland

Which is just as west as the outer Hebrides. I forget that myself some times..

[Evening thunder]

I was also going to post that you can see the change for example by comparing last night's t t+144 (or even t+120) to today's 12z t+126 (or t+102)

At that range with all models similar you can sort of be forgiven for believing it. Now the high is orientated less favourably and weaker, and open to lasting less long. Hopefully it's not a precedent, I've known downgrades like this to seem like a theme for the season.

ECM ensembles far less good than last nights, that also had +14C 850's in the south at t+216. Today's have lost the +12 line by T+168, almost t+144.

Also, the Met Office only forecasting 20C here from Wednesday's chart (which looks good still) !

The highest is 25/24C on Thursday/Friday. So unless they are significantly overestimating the effect of sea breezes etc, it looks like I may only get a few 'very warm' days anyway. The North coast is forecast to be a lot warmer of course.
I haven't reached 30C here in my records starting in 2007. We are often moderated by the sea but it's still about time it happened.

Hopefully this post ends up looking a bit silly and we get a great spell and/or summer.

4 hours ago, cheese said:

Seems like we're alone in that thinking. Where have all the weather enthusiasts gone?

Sometimes does seem like there's a lot of 'fair weather' folk about, nothing wrong with that of course but surely they can understand us finding extremes interesting.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Evening thunder

[Mokidugway]

3 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Which is just as west as the outer Hebrides. I forget that myself some times..

Lol , a friend of mine from cork was somewhat amazed by Cumbrias dry climate

[cheese]

I've been checking the Met Office forecast for next week here and it's not looking so great now - whereas before they had sunshine every day, now they have low cloud lasting until the afternoon. I've had this sinking feeling since the easterlies first appeared in the model output and I'm afraid I'm going to be vindicated yet again.

I also checked the sunshine stats for Leeming and they are still sub-100 hours for the entire month, a mere 60% of the monthly average and I suspect it will still be comfortably below average by the end of the month.

Really cannot wait for June to be over - always knew it was my least favourite summer month for a reason. Low cloud is practically never an issue in July, August or September.

Edited June 24, 2018 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

FANTASTIC WEEK AHEAD!

and if this is all we get, its still makes it a better summer then 11/12 previous.