Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Ice Man 85]

3 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Any heat/humidity looks confined to the SOUTH EAST, and NOT way up north, no need for name changes .

Well netweather's forecast ironically says the opposite. Says we'll be warmer than london.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

4 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Any heat/humidity looks confined to the SOUTH EAST, and NOT way up north, no need for name changes .

looks pretty nationwide to me even scotland getting some warmth

[Ice Man 85]

Looking pretty nasty is you don't like it too warm. Once again what was modelled as pleasant will turn into hot and uncomfortable.

[Milhouse]

High pressure looks like extending as far as the eye can see! No let up in the dry and warm weather. A few questions though, with mine being how much sunshine will the easterly give us next week?. I recall the late May easterlies of 2012 and 2009 were exceptionally sunny. Early june 2007 was much cloudier. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

33 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

High pressure looks like extending as far as the eye can see! No let up in the dry and warm weather. A few questions though, with mine being how much sunshine will the easterly give us next week?. I recall the late May easterlies of 2012 and 2009 were exceptionally sunny. Early june 2007 was much cloudier. 

It totally depends on where you are sourcing the air from. If its warm conitental heat then you can almost expect a dry sunny and very humid sort of weather. It also plays a massive part on the sea temperature and the fetch of water the air has to cross. 

For instances we pull up a warm humid south easterly straight of Germany etcetc that would quite possible be very warm and humid. 

However, let's say we draw in a north easterly out of Norway that would be quite cloudy for this time of year because although warm air can surge up there it's got to cross a pretty cool sea and with it comes fog and cloud 

There are expections to both though 

[MP-R]

Quite amazing output from the models. The jet stream is so far north you'd be forgiven for thinking it was high summer! Whether this pattern will sustain through the summer or we see the much fabled return of the westerlies remains to be seen. For now - lots of moderate warmth and sun to enjoy.

[Milhouse]

Looks a cracking week for most of the country next week! Just need to keep an eye on that blob of cooler air sinking into eastern Europe to see if it has an impact on us eventually. But at the same time it will be hotting up over France and Spain so could get warmer still over southern and western parts. 

[knocker]

Quite an interesting ecm for Bank Holiday Monday this morning with some very high temps in the unstable low pressure area to the south (30C in central France) with much thundery activity and the high temps even get as far north as the south of the UK but probable best to avoid Skegy. Of course purely academic at the moment

Edited May 20, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm this morning has us right on the edge of the plume Sunday/Monday but a word of caution. This is very dependent on the precise orientation of the low pressure just west of Iberia and the high pressure over southern Norway.. A  slight variation on the analysis makes a world of difference.As it stands at the moment.

Edited May 21, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Merely to illustrate the above point. Close but no cigar but then within 7 days many minor adjustments can be made (of course still warm and pleasant)

Edited May 21, 2018 by knocker

[Ice Man 85]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Merely to illustrate the above point. Close but no cigar but then within 7 days many minor adjustments can be made (of course still warm and pleasant)

Could see 30c as far north as where I am based on current output. Whilst I am pleasantly surprised that the conditions we have no are not as bad as I feared, whats being modelled for the weekend is nothing short of horrific.

[Ice Man 85]

Little to no hope left now. I'll be reaching for the Prozac soon.

[draztik]

32 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Little to no hope left now. I'll be reaching for the Prozac soon.

This too shall pass  I am still confident June will not play out like this, or July. Chin up! 

[draztik]

Ecm day 10, 12z and 0z. Lets play darts! Which one will come off, pays your money, take your choice. 

Ecm, king of the models. Brilliant stuff! 

Edited May 21, 2018 by draztik

[Ice Man 85]

19 minutes ago, draztik said:

Ecm day 10, 12z and 0z. Lets play darts! Which one will come off, pays your money, take your choice. 

Ecm, king of the models. Brilliant stuff! 

Whichever makes me suffer. Pretty simple really. In all seriousness though the way things are going there'll be a crisis in the hospitals with cases of heatstroke etc like in 2003.

[draztik]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Whichever makes me suffer. Pretty simple really. In all seriousness though the way things are going there'll be a crisis in the hospitals with cases of heatstroke etc like in 2003.

lol! We are far from there, yet! Let's see how this plays out! 

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, draztik said:

lol! We are far from there, yet! Let's see how this plays out! 

I have a bad memory for stuff like this, but I do remember late July and the early part of that august being hot and humid. Was one hell of a breakdown. lasted for at least 2 weeks if I remember.

Edited May 21, 2018 by Ice Man 85

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I have a bad memory for stuff like this, but I do remember late July and the early part of that august being hot and humid. Was one hell of a breakdown. lasted for at least 2 weeks if I remember.

I've got a chiller unit in for sale at mo , can do you a decent hire rate

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I've got a chiller unit in for sale at mo , can do you a decent hire rate

Unless its a hollowed-out american style chest-freezer then it might not be enough

[Milhouse]

Im struggling to remember such a long settled and warm spell. Right out to day 10 high pressure remains firmly in charge. Thats not to say there wont be some showery days but the outlook is dominated by high pressure. If heats not your thing then head to the east coast.

[stevofunnelcl]

who is right, some people on here, or the 7 day chart on the Met Office website

I've just run through up to next Monday, for both my local area, and then i looked at London

Wind direction seems mostly NE, temperatures don't seem to get too high, even London Max 25c - Sun/Mon

Humidity values remain low, i've seen percentages as low as 40's and 50's percent

Doesn't really sound much like a sweat box to me

[Polar Maritime]

Let's please be friendly and not moan about members, As this is the 'Model' banter moan thread.  

Thanks

[78/79]

No complaints from me, long may it continue. 

[Eugene]

What an absolute nightmare this endless humidity is and it's only May, no end in sight and not much sign of fresher weather. Something is seriously wrong with our climate, continious continental heat is not normal in July let alone in May. On course for record growth in the countryside beating even previous Summers, never seen it this overgrown in May. Of course by Winter the atlantic will wake up and we'll get fleeting blink or you'll miss it continental affairs like the past late winter/early spring period. Global warming is accelerating at an alarming rate. @karyo i know willl share my concerns.

[Milhouse]

I wouldnt say its concerning Eugene. Its just the opposite end of the spectrum than what we had in late Winter and we are being told that extremes are becoming more common. Plus with all the rain around today it should please those gardeners and farmers, who will have also welcomed the recent fine weather which will have brought the crops on. May is a transitional month which can feel like mid summer at times as well as early Spring at others. It just so happens we are getting heat and storms early this year.