Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[summer blizzard]

As much as the current spell will bring back memories of 2003 and 2006, both of which had a pretty warm May.. 2008 and 2012 also had notably warm spells.

[B87]

On 01/05/2018 at 23:56, B87 said:

Looks like we might actually see our first sunnier than average May since 2011 here!!

I take back my first comment, after this week it's looking very cool and cloudy. 

Might have to wait another year for that sunny May. Years ending in 9 seem to do well for decent summers (1949, 1959, 1969, 1989, 1999, 2019)?

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

I take back my first comment, after this week it's looking very cool and cloudy. 

Might have to wait another year for that sunny May. Years ending in 9 seem to do well for decent summers (1949, 1959, 1969, 1989, 1999, 2019)?

Not sure about that B87

[B87]

9 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Not sure about that B87

Whether this week will be sunny enough to help us have our first sunny (or average) May since 2011 is yet to be seen, but sun hours and temps take a huge hit in the 2nd week, well below average. Long term average sunshine for May is 198.5 hours.

May 2017: 164.8 hours

May 2016: 192.7 hours

May 2015: 189.0 hours

May 2014: 178.8 hours

May 2013: 163.3 hours

May 2012: 166.6 hours

May 2011: 218.0 hours

Edited May 4, 2018 by B87

[Matthew.]

4 minutes ago, B87 said:

Whether this week will be sunny enough to help us have our first sunny (or average) May since 2011 is yet to be seen, but sun hours and temps take a huge hit in the 2nd week, well below average.

You probably will have 100 hours of sun by the 10th so even if the 2nd third is a bit under the last third could still get loads more. I’d be very surprised if London has anything less than average temps this month

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

You probably will have 100 hours of sun by the 10th so even if the 2nd third is a bit under the last third could still get loads more. I’d be very surprised if London has anything less than average temps this month

I'd take a cooler May (say 17c average highs) if it meant that sunshine was 50 hours above average.

[78/79]

Long may this continue,makes you feel 100% better. 

[stainesbloke]

19 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Long may this continue,makes you feel 100% better. 

Quite. Absolutely beautiful weather. Very comfortable warmth, too, with just 36% humidity today.

[Ice Man 85]

Comfortable is subjective. Temps that feel a good 3c above what it is, no cloud cover to mitigate the sun, no breeze to speak of. Only took my dog for a 10 minute walk and nearly passed out. Still feel nauseous now. I would kill for a body that finds this muck comfortable.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Ice Man 85

[stainesbloke]

15 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Comfortable is subjective. Temps that feel a good 3c above what it is, no cloud cover to mitigate the sun, no breeze to speak of. Only took my dog for a 10 minute walk and nearly passed out. Still feel nauseous now. I would kill for a body that finds this muck comfortable.

Sounds like you might need a health check if you’re nearly fainting in 24C? 

[simshady]

1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Comfortable is subjective. Temps that feel a good 3c above what it is, no cloud cover to mitigate the sun, no breeze to speak of. Only took my dog for a 10 minute walk and nearly passed out. Still feel nauseous now. I would kill for a body that finds this muck comfortable.

Yeah, horrible. No cooling breeze at all. Roll on winter!

[draztik]

2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Comfortable is subjective. Temps that feel a good 3c above what it is, no cloud cover to mitigate the sun, no breeze to speak of. Only took my dog for a 10 minute walk and nearly passed out. Still feel nauseous now. I would kill for a body that finds this muck comfortable.

and its only May...

Imagine record breaking temperatures (for cold) in October.... the equivalent, so to speak.

Never going to happen! So much easier to get heat into the UK than cold... then again, I hear its a warming planet

[draztik]

1 hour ago, simshady said:

Yeah, horrible. No cooling breeze at all. Roll on winter!

something for you Sim...

the GFS 12z trend is sharply negative  (may not last for long, but certainly a cooler wk post Tuesday)

[Captain Shortwave]

I think some are over-exaggerating how bad things are. 22-26C across most of the UK with unbroken sunshine and low humidity. That really shouldn't be that intollerable to be honest. It is just pleasant for very clothing and is exactly what we needed from agriculture to tourism. 

Looks like lasting until Tuesday before it looks like we will see low presure move towards the UK to bring cooler and more unsettled weather. Week 2 looks messy with low pressure filling near the UK and high pressure building to our east and from the Azores high moving in so proably some kind of easterly is likely to develop but surface details will be very difficult to pin down (It could be dry or wet and potentially cool or very warm).

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I think some are over-exaggerating how bad things are. 22-26C across most of the UK with unbroken sunshine and low humidity. That really shouldn't be that intollerable to be honest. It is just pleasant for very clothing and is exactly what we needed from agriculture to tourism. 

Looks like lasting until Tuesday before it looks like we will see low presure move towards the UK to bring cooler and more unsettled weather. Week 2 looks messy with low pressure filling near the UK and high pressure building to our east and from the Azores high moving in so proably some kind of easterly is likely to develop but surface details will be very difficult to pin down (It could be dry or wet and potentially cool or very warm).

Not exaggerating at all. You have to bear in mind that I can shed jackets in 12c. My body doesn't feel the cold at all. Thus, when warmer weather arrives, I suffer in it. I feel far warmer than a normal person would.

[Ice Man 85]

10 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Sounds like you might need a health check if you’re nearly fainting in 24C? 

Hardly. We all feel and tolerate temperatures differently. Just like those who enjoy this muck would find 12c cold. All I know is I get headaches and start to feel sick if I'm out in it too long.

[KTtom]

On 23/02/2018 at 19:27, Tonyinhampshire said:

Well you might be be right. Our local TV forecast mentions average temps in in the south next Week around 7c, Spring like I would say.

Some of you need to come to west Wales for a visit....heatwave?? ...3rd day on the trot of thick fog and temperatures around 13 c.....must be the only part of the country where things look like improving later in the week!

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Hardly. We all feel and tolerate temperatures differently. Just like those who enjoy this muck would find 12c cold. All I know is I get headaches and start to feel sick if I'm out in it too long.

Yes, we certainly are all different, but your strong reaction to moderate warmth may indicate underlying issues. Might be worth getting a check up? Don’t mean to offend.

[markyo]

13 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, we certainly are all different, but your strong reaction to moderate warmth may indicate underlying issues. Might be worth getting a check up? Don’t mean to offend.

Got to admit i get headaches and feel very grumpy when it starts to nudge the upper 20's . Would never sit out in it,never have even as a kid,came in when it was hot. Every bodies tolerance is different,cold doesn't bother me,heat turns me into a wimp! 

Enjoy your heat in your neck of the woods,sounds just your ticket!

[Frosty.]

5 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

All I know is I get headaches and start to feel sick if I'm out in it too long.

Don't go out in it, problem solved!

[IanR]

I would love this weather to stick around until late september,  broken by good thunderstorms every few days then back to sun and warmth ,  then rinse and repeat , of course it wont , we are not a continental climate  

[Milhouse]

Looking at the outlook for the week ahead it doesnt look that bad with average May conditions expected. I will not grumble at that. Hopefully in a short while we will be looking forward to the next warm spell on the horizon. 

[weatherguru14]

Looking at met office update they are going for well above averages as we get into later part of May for the south. I hope the weather pushes north to Scotland  on occasions so we can all have some warm summery weather

[cheese]

Yes, the outlook is fine - average May weather. Nothing to grumble at. It's too early for sustained 20s temperatures - into June is when that becomes possible.

[cheeky_monkey]

Having a fabulous start to May...wall to wall sunshine everyday..temps 20-26c...looks like staying that way for the next 7-10 days