Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Chief Wiggam]

Lol, tittus verticalis in MOD thread,, big downgrade but hey let's ignore that model because we don't like the result. Rain coming albeit cold rain 

[Shunter]

14 minutes ago, EML Network said:

So this is now fast turning into a severe 3 day cold spell...whoopy bleedin do. !!

Not even any front edge snow now for this pesky low and for us in the south its game over by Thursday morning.

 

Ohh well guess we should just enjoy it whilst it lasts

 

GFS ....please be wrong.......

Absolute joke if GFS verifies..........Most of England out of the game by Friday. 

 

 

 

[Buzz]

Squabbling, wrist slashing and toys being thrown around - yup, that's the MOD thread right now, and all because of the latest GFS output for six days away ...... Here we are on the brink of at least a few days of very cold weather and snow coming up for many and a few immature folks decide to act like five year olds because they can't enjoy what they have/may have and want more, more, more ............

Edited February 24, 2018 by Buzz

[EML Network]

3 minutes ago, Shunter said:

GFS ....please be wrong.......

Absolute joke if GFS verifies..........Most of England out of the game by Friday. 

 

 

 

There's enough time for it to be wrong, but the GFS is bringing that milder air in faster and fast with each run, although I have also noticed that at the same time it's making less and less progress East, if the trend continues it might not even make it to the UK and stall to the South West of the UK. 

The UKMO + 144 overnight chart is very similar to the ECM though, If the GFS doesn't back down over the next few runs I'd say were looking at a 3 or 4 day at best cold spell with snow opportunity's but by next weekend it will probably be feeling more spring like, I'll be reading the afternoon METO text update with a lot of interest

[TEITS]

I really do not understand some people at times.

This week we are likely to see plenty of snow showers, upper temps of -15C, max temps below freezing and all this in end the of Feb/March!

Some of us may very well see a return of less cold weather after a period of snow at the end of the week but personally I would be satisfied with this coming week.

[Decemberof2010]

To say it's all over for England is a bit far fetched. And a 3 or 4 day cold spell??? Yes if the GFS comes off but only down south. The Meto still bullish on their overnight text of cold lasting. ECM, UKMO different to GFS. People do live north of the Midlands. However going by the MAD thread this morning you'd never know it. Unbelievable imbyism in there. For the southern half yes it's a downgrade, for us further north it's still bitter. 

[Shunter]

1 minute ago, EML Network said:

There's enough time for it to be wrong, but the GFS is bringing that milder air in faster and fast with each run, although I have also noticed that at the same time it's making less and less progress East, if the trend continues it might not even make it to the UK and stall to the South West of the UK. 

The UKMO + 144 overnight chart is very similar to the ECM though, If the GFS doesn't back down over the next few runs I'd say were looking at a 3 or 4 day at best cold spell with snow opportunity's but by next weekend it will probably be feeling more spring like, I'll be reading the afternoon METO text update with a lot of interest

yh I agree......I cant believe how all of the HP to our North and East just evaporates. With all the major organisations stating NW Europe going into the freezer for an indefinite period how can it all dissolve in 4 days ?

 

 

[Number 23]

If I had a penny for every time the gfs made too much of a lp system...

A bit of a downer for the South if for once it's right, but bloody hell anyone who's been around here for any length of time must realise it's still an outside bet?

[northwestsnow]

Keep calm peeps-this low wont be modeled until tues/wedd!!

[stainesbloke]

19 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Squabbling, wrist slashing and toys being thrown around - yup, that's the MOD thread right now, and all because of the latest GFS output for six days away ...... Here we are on the brink of at least a few days of very cold weather and snow coming up for many and a few immature folks decide to act like five year olds because they can't enjoy what they have/may have and want more, more, more ............

Exactly! Pathetic. A lot of gleeful comments about how it’ll be ‘game over’ for the S by Friday with loads of rain. I don’t believe that’ll happen. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Exactly! Pathetic. A lot of gleeful comments about how it’ll be ‘game over’ for the S by Friday with loads of rain. I don’t believe that’ll happen. 

ignore em mate.

All will be well

[Number 23]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Exactly! Pathetic. A lot of gleeful comments about how it’ll be ‘game over’ for the S by Friday with loads of rain. I don’t believe that’ll happen. 

Ironically I'm encouraged by the track of the low at this range on gfs. If it was much further South today I'd be expecting it to end up missing us completely! 

[stainesbloke]

8 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Ironically I'm encouraged by the track of the low at this range on gfs. If it was much further South today I'd be expecting it to end up missing us completely! 

That’s true. Looking very interesting later in the week. Hopefully we can all stay cold with snow, fun for everyone 

[EML Network]

Can I borrow some of your rose tinted glasses please, love it how folks just say to ignore the GFS run, sorry but it's been dogged run after tun after run in bringing this Low up through the south of the country and essentially stalling mixing out the cold uppers and bringing milder Atlantic air.

 

just 2 days ago the GFS had parts of the southern half of the UK under -16 uppers for the 1st March, just 2 days later and the uppers on mid day for Thursday are creeping towards  0 !!

 

That's a swing of 16 degrees in just 2 days, no wonder people are getting upset. 

 

IMO the snow that's going to fall between Mon - Wed will be just hit and miss showers, we had a real shot at something truly memorable for the back end of the week and going through the various gfs 06z runs, as well as those from the previous 4 it's clear for all to see (except those with rose tinted glasses) that there's a high probability of this current cold spell, becoming a cold snap of 4 days.

 

If I lived in the Midlands, however of the North East then I would be getting very excited as you guys look to be in the sweet spot. 

 

I'm just as guilty for doing IMBY posts, but for longevity of cold the trend is that by next weekend most of the UK will be back to average uppers, all be it probably cold still at the surface and any laying snow will soon melt probably by rainfall. 

 

Enjoy it whilst it lasts folks, because if the GFS is right (and let's face it, it has out performed all other this winter) ...it will be over by this time next week for the majority of us.

Edited February 24, 2018 by EML Network

[Number 23]

No rose tinted glasses here, it may well end up that way.

However, if I had a gun to my head, I'd take my lead from what we've seen in the past. GFS absolutely has form for overdoing lows. That's not even up for debate and by the sounds of it this northerly track doesn't even have firm ensemble support, although I haven't checked myself this was from a credible source in the MOD.

Secondly, where we've had entrenched cold in the past breakdowns have always appeared and been pushed back nearer the time. 

It's one thing to say if the gfs is right most of the South will get rain. That's correct. But IMHO it remains the outsider. 

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Downgraded to a 3 day event. I'm calling it 'Barbecue Friday'. Thanks GFS.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[DOdo]

GFS is a wobbler

 

[Seasonal Trim]

Just as many toys being throw out in this thread as in the other. Definition of hypocritical! 

[Tracy Flick]

I wouldn't be surprised if a few rural locations in the southern half of the UK get scenes like this at some point in the next 6-12 days, as the lows try to push in from the south-west.

 

[Alexander James Barber]

A message for my fellow coldies.  The GFS is only a bit of fun after (5 days 120 hours) and can be taken with a giant pinch of salt. The ECMWF & Met Office are stating 'cold' beyond Friday with a 'possible' decent snow event. A mild breakdown on Friday is about as likely as some of those cold easterly spells that the GFS constantly pumps out every 2 or 3 days (pub run), it has been doing it for years. To be fair; 7 mild winters have been nauseous. I for one cannot stand seeing that giant Quality Street over Greenland (the big purple one/vortex) and the monotonous (Bartlett high pressure) over France and Germany; take into consideration that it is 7 mild and useless winters brought on by climate change 'man-made winters', pre-1987, the UK would get alternating winters, some virtually snowless and some with decent snow events, that all changed post 1987, okay, there has been a couple of reasonable events (2010), but even that wasn't that memorable for some, to be honest. So don't worry too much about Friday "GFS is just a bit of fun."  I cannot wait to see some big totals accumulate somewhere/anywhere in the UK! 

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, meh said:

I wouldn't be surprised if a few rural locations in the southern half of the UK get scenes like this at some point in the next 6-12 days, as the lows try to push in from the south-west.

 

A 595   Machine behind grittier was  one of ours.

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, EML Network said:

and let's face it, it has out performed all other this winter

Some statistical charts would be handy to back that up?!

[Eastbourneguy]

So 3-4 days of sub -10 850s (towards -15) for most. Convective showers and troughs forecast in that time and now the models trying to firm up on a low pathway that has potential to bring crazy amounts of snow somewhere.

The ensembles are there for a reason, to pick out the average and have so far been very good with this spell, even with the occasional erratic behaviour from the ops on both the ecm and gfs.

Yes, the gfs op recently could be correct with the low ruining the party in the far south but that’s not the ensemble consensus. 

Anyway, enjoy the next 5 days, may the streamers be with you. 

[EML Network]

40 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Some statistical charts would be handy to back that up?!

Dont need to...if youve followed the charts over the past few months youll know that the ECM has consistently shown different output to the GfS only to come kicking and screaming inline with the GFS.

 

Indeed the ECM was having none of the cold spell for a while when the GfS sniffed it out several days earlier.

 

The ECM is already in its 0z run falling more in line with the GFS solution regarding the LP from the SW.

 

Its 0z run yesterday had it going through France and already its modelled several 100 miles further north.

Id be over the moon if the GFS backs down, but if anything its doing the opposite and.bringing it in faster

[swebby]

4 hours ago, Buzz said:

Squabbling, wrist slashing and toys being thrown around - yup, that's the MOD thread right now, and all because of the latest GFS output for six days away ...... Here we are on the brink of at least a few days of very cold weather and snow coming up for many and a few immature folks decide to act like five year olds because they can't enjoy what they have/may have and want more, more, more ............

Been busy so have only just glanced at the models.  As usual, I checked the GEFS ensembles first and when i saw the 6z's i assumed the MAD thread would be a no go zone day today  Thought i'd check the temp of the mood in hear first and i think i've chosen wisely. 

Have now looked at the GFS/ECM  and the GFS seems to be obeying they rule of what can go wrong for UK cold will go wrong, which sods law suggest will verify.  To my amateur eyes, the ECM looks on the cusp (i.e 100 miles one way or t'other) of marginal for the south but as it currently stands would be snowy in a rather disruptive way!