Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[matt111]

2 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Well you might be be right. Our local TV forecast mentions average temps in in the south next Week around 7c, Spring like I would say.

Which forecast was that? Both the regional TV forecasts looked like this

[sorepaw1]

Eastern counties and parts of the south and some central areas are going to be battered .

I dare say at some point next week we'll see  RED Weather warnings. 

To add to this with Gale force winds and heavy snow drifting snow even to low levels 

Edited February 23, 2018 by sorepaw1

[tinybill]

is  it  me  or are  the bbc weather  forecasting dreadful   now ex our local one they got no idea

[Oymyakon]

I dare say at some point next week we'll see  RED Weather warnings. 

I hope not, but it does look increasingly likely that we're in for a severe event which might impact on Transport, NHS, National Grid etc; so I've sent my MP an email asking her to check if local and national Government have contingency plans

It's a fascinating event unfolding and being a fit, healthy retired gent with no particular place to go I'll revel in the novelty but for the less fortunate it could prove dangerous

Thanks to all for the on-going analysis

Edited February 23, 2018 by Oymyakon

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Oymyakon said:

I dare say at some point next week we'll see  RED Weather warnings. 

I hope not, but it does look increasingly likely that we're in for a severe event which might impact on Transport, NHS, National Grid etc; so I've sent my MP an email asking her to check if local and national Government have contingency plans

It's a fascinating event unfolding and being a fit, healthy retired gent with no particular place to go I'll revel in the novelty but for the less fortunate it could prove dangerous

Thanks to all for the on-going analysis

So in the mean time lets just call it "Chilly".............

[Shunter]

The breakdown from the SE starts earlier on this run.....all over by Friday morning for our contingent. 

[wednesburybaz]

good evening all.

my town is wednesbury which is located in the west midlands near jct9 of m6.

looking forward to the cold spell because lets be honest us brits like  bit of drama and disruption to moan about!

I do find the models hard to read although I do get the blue colours mean cold

I don't understand how the precipitation is formed with kinks and troughs though.

beginning to regret not paying attention in geography about the weather as would have come in handy.

i find the main discussion board confusing and contradictory but i love a bit of snow and trudging up to lidl like a little trooper!!

if its going to snow hope its a good dumping otherwise these 4 days of constant refreshing will all be nothing!!

stay safe everyone and remember to check in on the neighbours

 

[Number 23]

GFS has form for overblowing lows, so I wouldn't put too much stock in the track of that system. Expect that to correct southwards.

 

 

 

[sorepaw1]

No flights . limited rail travel. 

Gritters and snow ploughing at breaking point. 

Major motorways blocked by stranded vehicles. 

No fresh bread or milk.

No bulk buying allowed in supermarkets 

Possible power cuts even in cities 

But you can't grumble it will only last till April. 

[stainesbloke]

44 minutes ago, Shunter said:

The breakdown from the SE starts earlier on this run.....all over by Friday morning for our contingent. 

Had to end sometime, enjoy it while it lasts (which will probably be longer than the GFS indicates).

[DIS1970]

I know it's still early, but local forecasts for my location (including netweather) barely indicate much cloud cover let alone snowfall for the next 7 days or so, so apart from being very cold, snowfall is looking quite minimal at the moment. I mean a couple of cm's is hardly worth getting the snowploughs out for. Personally i've seen this kind of setup many times before, and it does have the potential for quite a severe spell of wintry weather.

[Evening thunder]

Now that's a rampable forecast from the ECM for me! 

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Exeter/long.html


(It actually shows about 16mm water equivalent Thursday night into Friday)

5 ice days and Friday having a max of -3C with snow. Also -11C next Monday morning.

That's the perfect solution of the low getting close enough to bring a proper snow event, and then backing off to leave a slackening cold air mass.

What a nice thought. Wouldn't be surprise if it's a bit closer to GFS in reality though esp as the UKMO brings the low over us.
 

[BlackburnChris]

On 08/12/2017 at 13:47, SLEETY said:

What happens to  some people when snow is forecast is incredible.

 

People  on some of the regional threads  that are going to get snow are laughing at people that are going to miss out on The snow .

Pathetic behaviour,like maybe grow up or something.Obviously these forums are becoming waste of time in winter if snow is forecast.

You never see or hear from any of these posters  any other time,which is about 99% of the year.

Use to love it when peeps do that .. cause usually it ends up that the least prone areas end up with the most .. 

[Catacol]

If this spell progresses as expected over the next 2 weeks winter 2018/19 is going to be very poor fare in comparison. Bog standard synoptics just wont cut it anymore! Perhaps the approaching solar minimum can produce more in the way this - but somehow I'm wondering if I'll ever see a cold pool like this again.

A very weird feeling...

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

If this spell progresses as expected over the next 2 weeks winter 2018/19 is going to be very poor fare in comparison. Bog standard synoptics just wont cut it anymore! Perhaps the approaching solar minimum can produce more in the way this - but somehow I'm wondering if I'll ever see a cold pool like this again.

A very weird feeling...

Indeed, I have a similar feeling.  However, on the upside, with 2010, 2013 and now (maybe) 2018, these types of events are somehow becoming more commonplace.  Anyway, we have an incredible week to look forward to, then there's spring and summer!  

[MarkM]

So far we seemed to have dodged all the snow apart from Dec 1st around here ( North Lincs ) but it looks like I'm directly in the firing line , couple of miles from the Humber/Trent/Ouse confluence. Normally I'd be starting ground prep work next week for my local cricket club but I suspect it may get delayed a few weeks , but on the other hand my sideline of video / aerial / photo images and prints might get lucky , severe weather can produce fantastic opportunities. . 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

If this spell progresses as expected over the next 2 weeks winter 2018/19 is going to be very poor fare in comparison. Bog standard synoptics just wont cut it anymore! Perhaps the approaching solar minimum can produce more in the way this - but somehow I'm wondering if I'll ever see a cold pool like this again.

A very weird feeling...

Don't say that. Maybe this is a taster for the heart of Winter next year .

[stevofunnelcl]

darn it, drat, and blast. I thought deep cold air would be hard to shift, but the end of next week / going into the weekend, will be a test

High Reward / High Risk

Kinda like betting on a Spurs game

[Matthew.]

This is just the start

[Thinon]

Disappointing to be dealing with marginality in a so called "exceptionally cold" spell, but hey this is the UK winter and it has no shame.

[SLEETY]

It’s not marginal,who told you that

[V for Very Cold]

i think people have given up on ramping 

[Interitus]

From the other place -

Lock up your daughters, rampant blizzards forecast!

Edited February 24, 2018 by Interitus

[EML Network]

So this is now fast turning into a severe 3 day cold spell...whoopy bleedin do. !!

Not even any front edge snow now for this pesky low and for us in the south its game over by Thursday morning.

 

Ohh well guess we should just enjoy it whilst it lasts

 

[Number 23]

What an impressive sight the encroaching cold on this morning's data is. Just 48 hours or so until landfall.

So Met update now extended to Wed and brings most of the country into the equation. Even the assorted automated forecasts are starting to grasp the nettle in terms of precip, although chocolate teapots!

Incidentally a stunning day here with the odd gust of cold air. Pretty bracing already to be honest. 

I expect some ambers on the warning maps come Monday!