Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, swebby said:

Oh dear, think the MAD thread is about to become the region v region thread again like in December - may have another 4 days of this kind of nonsense until some snow actually arrives to placate some and disappoint others.

Aye ,regional differences come to light in these setups but there's button pushers in both regions so it's bound to end up in a pub brawl :nonono:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swebby Veteran

swebby

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

500 posts an hour over there. Some folk seem to be personally offended by inter-run variability. The UKMO has moved the HLB south (oh no!), the GFS has moved it north (hurrah!). All the models that go beyond T144 are retrogressing it towards Greenland anyway, so...

Aye. Think that's as bad as i've seen it in there tbh, clear correlation to being personally offended and the location given in their avatar.  The mods are going to be busy tonight.  Maybe the miscreants should be forced to watch the MetO youtube vid posted by Chris D above, will calm some of them down a tad.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, swebby said:

Aye. Think that's as bad as i've seen it in there tbh, clear correlation to being personally offended and the location given in their avatar.  The mods are going to be busy tonight.  Maybe the miscreants should be forced to watch the MetO youtube vid posted by Chris D above, will calm some of them down a tad.

 

I did laugh at one guy moaning that "many of us will miss out". His location was southeast Kent! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
No Balls Like Snow Balls Experienced

No Balls Like Snow Balls

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
Posted

I must admit I love reading the mod thread when it kicks off in there. It brings so many laughs. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted

Reading the models thread they’ll not be throwing snowballs but toys from their oversized prams.

Goodness it’s PATHETIC 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
metaltron Apprentice

metaltron

Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley
Posted

Ugh, I'm finding the MOD thread pretty intolerable today; it wouldn't be half as bad if there wasn't such overconfidence this morning, with anybody showing some caution being shut down almost immediately. Bluearmy was the star of the thread this morning, has to be said. 

On a more optimistic note, I've been worried for a few days that the Met Office's own models were predicting the cold to be shifted south into France. However, today there seems to be a shift of tone and I think their own models might have upgraded the cold potential. (Also an encouraging post from Carinthian just now, pointing out that their model is showing the cold moving faster west than some models are predicting.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
1 minute ago, metaltron said:

Ugh, I'm finding the MOD thread pretty intolerable today; it wouldn't be half as bad if there wasn't such overconfidence this morning, with anybody showing some caution being shut down almost immediately. Bluearmy was the star of the thread this morning, has to be said. 

On a more optimistic note, I've been worried for a few days that the Met Office's own models were predicting the cold to be shifted south into France. However, today there seems to be a shift of tone and I think their own models might have upgraded the cold potential. (Also an encouraging post from Carinthian just now, pointing out that their model is showing the cold moving faster west than some models are predicting.)

As I have said previously I don't bother looking in MOD thread these days but bluearmy has always been a top notch poster in there and well worth reading.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

maybe consider a slight change to 'here comes the beast' - just add a '?' on the end

It may be going a tad Pete Tong, but hey, it'll be Spring soon. hehe

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Number 23 Aficionado

Number 23

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

I think recent developments are the exact reason those baying for the MetO/BBC etc to start ramping up nationwide heavy snow prospects at t+168 (not necessarily on here but in general) should take note. It's still distinctly possible we'll get severe weather, but today's outputs demonstrate just how fluid these situations can be as the time approaches. 

Fine details which occur in the 0-120 range can dramatically alter the outlook, regardless of cross-model or ensemble support out to lower res. I'd imagine they take place all the time even in zonal scenarios with good agreement, but when many are understandably glued to the exact spacing and orientation of every isobar, these adjustments seem more pronounced. There have been a few cautionary voices advising to wait for tomorrow/Friday to start telling all and sundry we're all about to be buried, and that looks like sound advice as it stands.

Whilst a switch to cold is underway in line with the overall theme and forecasts, the precise nature of next week is still anyone's guess. The meto video forecast, whilst seemingly a bit 'rampy' was very, very carefully worded.

And this coming from someone who got a bit carried away and mentioned Feb '91 to his missus yesterday!

Edited by Number 23
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ptow Contributor

ptow

Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
Posted
3 hours ago, Danielvn said:

I would very much agree with this statement. They always seem to be a couple of degrees off a few days out. I miss the range of possible temps they used to give on their 5-10 day forecasts...

Most apps seem to be showing these sort of temps. Maybe they are just from raw data. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Buzz Community Regular

Buzz

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
Posted (edited)

And peace and harmony descends on the model discussion thread ........... thanks to a lovely ECM at t+168.

Edited by Buzz
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Danielvn Contributor

Danielvn

Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
Posted
2 hours ago, knocker said:

Don't tell me that beastly 'trigger shortwave' has been at again :shok: Wicked. quite wicked.

This is your fault knocker! ALl your negative vibes caused that shortwave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Styx Seasoned

Styx

Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
Posted (edited)

I'm just wondering what the record low temperatures for March in the UK are? How low could it potentially go at the start of next month and how would the extremes compare to Marchs of recent years. Nice reading, hope all goes well

Edited by Styx
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

 God damn it. With the 18z downgrade we might as well be growing palm trees. 

Haven’t actually looked at anything I know I’m just correct. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted
5 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

maybe consider a slight change to 'here comes the beast' - just add a '?' on the end

It may be going a tad Pete Tong, but hey, it'll be Spring soon. hehe

considering where the cold might head surely "Voici la bête!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

The news is 'beasterly' this morning, but then i check those Met Office 5 days forecasts, can only find a hint of 50 percent of light snow in a few places for Mon / Tues / Wed next week.. not very useful when it comes to making plans, as people looking at those 7 day forecasts, will think it'll stay mostly dry !!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Full frikkin house!!what a morning!!!i remember bluearmy mention give it till this morning well guess what we here now and the charts look the same despite the little wobble we had 24 hours ago!!brilliant upgrades this morning!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowblizzard Aficionado

snowblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
Posted

Fantastic model watching!

I haven't been this excited about a spell of severe wintry weather for many years.

But, this week has been a long week, I just can't wait for the action to start on Sunday.

Surely, we won't be disappointed this time around!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bradowl Community Regular

Bradowl

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted
9 hours ago, Styx said:

I'm just wondering what the record low temperatures for March in the UK are? How low could it potentially go at the start of next month and how would the extremes compare to Marchs of recent years. Nice reading, hope all goes well

I remember in the late 1970s when we had several days towards end of March with temperature around freezing point, though this was with complete cloud cover and long periods of powdery snow. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

This, ladies and gentlemen is what we have all waited a long time for !!

Uppers of -15 -17 in a strong easterly blowing over warm seas is an absolute recipe for snowmaggedon..

I seriously dont care if we see a breakdown by next weekend because from monday through to friday will be utterly and totally memorable..

As Rretron says on TWO ECM is a 'pipe cracker' ..incredible cold straight from Russia with love!

The ONLY caveat being the fun starts at 96 hours,ONE more day of similar outputs and its sit back, book a few days off work and ENJOY it!!

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Number 23 Aficionado

Number 23

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Have to say, didn't expect that this morning. Still time for things to switch again, I'd say 12z tomorrow to be belt and braces.

All told a memorable winter on here for a multitude of reasons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...