Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Gadje]

My doubts about this very cold spell happening ended tonight. I have been viewing recent charts behind the sofa at times, Dr Who style. I'll be buying a snow shovel tomorrow......some salt too not to look a fool.

[Deep Snow please]

So we're starting to see the downgrades, worrying times for us all. 

[John88B]

5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So we're starting to see the downgrades, worrying times for us all. 

I"m seeing no downgrades, only small variations of the same theme. In fact my gut feeling, and the models, are telling me we're entering a period of extremely cold weather that we could be talking about for many years to come.

Sit back and enjoy the ride!

Edited February 21, 2018 by John88B

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, John88B said:

I"m seeing no downgrades, only small variations of the same theme. In fact my gut feeling, and the models, are telling me we'te entering a period of extremely cold weather that we'll be talking about for many years to come.

Well, I'm glad your that optimistic. Yet again the models are giving us a jam tomorrow run with the real cold and the snow potential delayed. We've gone from severe snow potential to very cold and a bit frosty. 

[John88B]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Well, I'm glad your that optimistic. Yet again the models are giving us a jam tomorrow run with the real cold and the snow potential delayed. We've gone from severe snow potential to very cold and a bit frosty. 

Yes I'm optimistic. The latest met office update is incredible and all the models are pointing to a bitterly cold spell of weather. The ecm is just one run, and still not a bad one. As far as I can see, all the models offer something very wintery for all and possibly for a very extended period.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GEM looking good, but others crap

[stainesbloke]

19 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So we're starting to see the downgrades, worrying times for us all. 

Wouldn’t say that, I don’t think I can ever remember such model agreement on an easterly. There’ll be a few twists and turns, but it does look very likely to turn pretty chilly from the weekend. Snow amounts are less well defined, apart from that there will probably be some.

[knocker]

I don't visit the MOD thread these days but I wouldn't mind betting Sidney's nuts to a -10C isotherm that one or two in there will be but a phone call away from a secure unit this morning,.

Edited February 21, 2018 by knocker

[chris78]

I know there will still be lots of chopping and changing, but it strikes me as interesting the number of posters in the model thread telling us not to look beyond sunday, some of them in a fairly patronising way........if we are not to look beyond sunday, what exactly have we been getting so exited  about for the last two weeks?

 

oh I see, look beyond sunday when its an upgrade but only a naive amateur would pay attention to a downgrade, is that it?

Edited February 21, 2018 by chris78

[snowblizzard]

BBC Weather for Kent & Sussex showing max temps for Monday & Tuesday at 3C/4C!

If the -15c 850 isotherm is close to SE (as predicted) with brisk Easterly winds surely the temps wouldn't get as high as 4C?

Edited February 21, 2018 by snowblizzard

[stevofunnelcl]

ok, i tell myself to relax.. some sort of cold is still coming

People that are expecting 'day after tomorrow' kind of setup, may have to lower their expectation bar a little

[snowspotter]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

So we're starting to see the downgrades, worrying times for us all. 

You clearly haven't got much to worry about. Your hardly gonna get an upgrade from -17 or whatever it was showing recently are you ? Bitter cold spell coming I'm sure a lot of old people are worrying about that !

[Deep Snow please]

4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

You clearly haven't got much to worry about. Your hardly gonna get an upgrade from -17 or whatever it was showing recently are you ? Bitter cold spell coming I'm sure a lot of old people are worrying about that !

As with every run another delay. We need confidence in the output, if every run downgrades to that extent it'll be spring weather. Dry and icey is far more worrying weather than snow for many.

[stainesbloke]

20 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather for Kent & Sussex showing max temps for Monday & Tuesday at 3C/4C!

If the -15c 850 isotherm is close to SE (as predicted) with brisk Easterly winds surely the temps wouldn't get as high as 4C?

Yes, this has been discussed quite a bit in the regional thread. The BBC temperatures are too high, there’ll be a number of ice days if those very cold uppers reach us.

[knocker]

I really don't know what all the angst is about. As confident as one can be with weather I would have thought that the cold spell is pretty much nailed for at least 14 days, albeit with varying degrees of severity as the upper pattern goes through the expected changes. That is the Canadian vortex migrating to northern Russia and the high to southern Greenland. Thus a change of emphasis in Europe with a trough associated with the new vortex running south to the east of the UK linked a to another trough in the Atlantic and probably a NW upper flow over the UK. So still cold but probably more chance of snow.

Something like this

[sparky1972]

i can only presume thats its not going to be as cold and snowy as some peeps would want and have to think there are going to be milder sectors within any chilly flow as on monday there is a bit of snow forecast, then on tues with the same temps, a slightly stronger wind from the east we are forecast rain, hopefully the rain stays away and we all get a few days of chilly snowy weather

[northwestsnow]

apparently EC has temps of 5/6 next  thurs so lets hope EC is wrong as it will be very short and sweet !!

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

apparently EC has temps of 5/6 next  thurs so lets hope EC is wrong as it will be very short and sweet !!

7C in Edinburgh

[78/79]

53 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather for Kent & Sussex showing max temps for Monday & Tuesday at 3C/4C!

If the -15c 850 isotherm is close to SE (as predicted) with brisk Easterly winds surely the temps wouldn't get as high as 4C?

Since the BEEB ditched the MET O , they've had to go back to putting fir cones and seaweed outside the back door 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

7C in Edinburgh

Thats hardly Baltic LOL..

TBF it is pretty much an outlier by that stage but a repeat this evening and there will be plenty of this i would imagine-

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats hardly Baltic LOL..

TBF it is pretty much an outlier by that stage but a repeat this evening and there will be plenty of this i would imagine-

Your bound to get inter run variations in this set up. Once again peeps get too fixated on the detail of every det. run.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Serious streamer activity.

How is the country going to cope? 

 

[Andy92]

Here comes the watered down cold spell. Blink and you'll miss it ????

[Deep Snow please]

Oh dear. Oh dear. Oh dear.

Only -8c uppers and several feet of snow for vast swathes of the country.

What a travesty the GFS is, downgrade after downgrade.

[Barking_Mad]

I don't know why people set themselves up to be disappointed by looking at charts 10+ days away.