Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

38 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I don't want to sound like a wet blanket, but you guys need to stop and actually think about the ramifications of these synoptics on the countries infrastructure. Have you not been watching the news? Have you not seen the hospitals in crisis? Hate me if you must, but I am really hoping these extreme runs get watered down to avoid chaos.

Doesn't matter what you or anyone else wants. If it's going to happen then it's going to happen. If the NHS struggles even more then that's the fault of our ridiculous government for running our health service into the ground.

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

Doesn't matter what you or anyone else wants. If it's going to happen then it's going to happen. If the NHS struggles even more then that's the fault of our ridiculous government for running our health service into the ground.

you're all heart...

Might as well be a winter pariah too then lol. Knocker could use the company.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Ice Man 85
more to add.

[weather_it_will]

I don't think this upcoming cold spell will be as cold as 2010, as I remember driving to work in the Midlands and it was -11°C air temp.

This evenings charts are only showing -7°C as coldest so far in my area.

I also doubt the amount of snow we get will be as much as 2010.

But we are still 7-days away from anything really cold, and there will be upgrades and downgrades to the weather models until in the more reliable timeframe.

 

[stevofunnelcl]

Looking at Met O, local forecast.

Wind Chill Feels Like Temp for next Mon, despite lots of Sunshine

Max Temp 3C

Feels like temp between -4 and -8c

Brisk Easterly winds, gusting into the low 30's

[philglossop]

Good old Tomasz on the week ahead forecast just now.

 

”Like cold runny honey  “

Whilst 2010 was cold here it never really snowed in the City. Looking very different next week  

[Fitzwis]

When the number of The Beast shows in your local 5 day forecast, you know The Beast from The East is truly on its way ??

Edited February 20, 2018 by Fitzwis

[Fitzwis]

With The Siberian Express inbound, here are some useful instructions (for those who know) ... now where did I put my BP badge? ?

Edited February 20, 2018 by Fitzwis

[snowblizzard]

BBC Weather - Some places next week will struggle to reach freezing, with a little snow for some!

It looks like being mainly dry cold!

Edited February 20, 2018 by snowblizzard

[starstream]

And a lot of snow for many, is what I would infer from that.

The major forecasters can't use serious language re snow till it gets into more reliable time frames, for joe blogs. Otherwise panic.

 

if the big guns on here, are bouncing like super balls on speed? I'm happy.

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather - Some places next week will struggle to reach freezing, with a little snow for some!

It looks like being mainly dry cold!

A little snow is code for severe blizzards and 20 foot drifts..next week looks incredible, will make up for all the mild filth coldies have endured!!

[chris78]

I get all the excitement and share it but.........it looks like an easterly is, but lets face it after these charts we dont just want an easterly we want epic!    Its still 6 days at least to the real cold, even with the model agreement would it not be unusual for the models to have picked up and stick with the correct solution 7 days out?  Espciially with the full effects of ssw still evolving? 

Also alot of people saying even a watered down version would be great, but would it, isnt one option the cold air all goes south and we get a standard easterly?

Like I said, im exited too, but is confidence getting a bit high this fr out?

[snowblizzard]

24 minutes ago, chris78 said:

I get all the excitement and share it but.........it looks like an easterly is, but lets face it after these charts we dont just want an easterly we want epic!    Its still 6 days at least to the real cold, even with the model agreement would it not be unusual for the models to have picked up and stick with the correct solution 7 days out?  Espciially with the full effects of ssw still evolving? 

Also alot of people saying even a watered down version would be great, but would it, isnt one option the cold air all goes south and we get a standard easterly?

Like I said, im exited too, but is confidence getting a bit high this fr out?

I think this is an exceptional synopsis for this stage of winter.

Obviously a result of the MSSW 

If it was 6th January I guess we would be looking at epic but I think the temperatures within the cold pool will be tempered slightly before reaching UK due to the time of year!   

But, if the models are correct it could still be spectacular for some parts of UK

Still quite a way to go though and there have been so many disappointments in the past, it's definitely nerve wracking right now!

I had a job sleeping last night!

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

 

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

Indeed, polar vortex for the uk..sounds good to me  ???

[Matthew.]

BBC coming on board nicely

[Number 23]

I occasionally like to go on the express pages and point out what nonsense they're writing about deep cold, but on this occasion I think I'll pass. 

Still would wait until tomorrow pm to be absolutely confident but it seems to be inevitable now. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Number 23

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

I occasionally like to go on the express pages and point out what nonsense they're writing about deep cold, but on this occasion I think I'll pass. 

Still would wait until tomorrow pm to be absolutely confident but it seems to be inevitable now. 

To be fair one doesn't normally have to look that far afield

[Matthew.]

For me not quite a Jan 87’ or Feb 91’ but nonetheless very close and potential is there. Looking better than late March 13’ because much earlier in the season + North Sea at optimum coldness. The downside being the increase in sun strength compared to mid Jan. So temps struggling to freezing whereas Jan 87’ below -5c. The most important question still remains, Will it snow?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

32 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I think this is an exceptional synopsis for this stage of winter.

Obviously a result of the MSSW 

If it was 6th January I guess we would be looking at epic but I think the temperatures within the cold pool will be tempered slightly before reaching UK due to the time of year!   

But, if the models are correct it could still be spectacular for some parts of UK

Still quite a way to go though and there have been so many disappointments in the past, it's definitely nerve wracking right now!

I had a job sleeping last night!

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

Even better 6th Dec! convection will be limited away from the east, due to coldest seas, but GFS shows decent Wash streamer still, but won't be as good as 30th Nov-2 Dec 2010, as that was warm sea, troughs in the flow though would be good, 

[knocker]

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by knocker

[Deep Snow please]

You know somethings afoot when you see people who've spent years screaming "it's always FI" and "don't believe the hype" are in full on ramp mode.

It's seems odd to think there's millions of British people sat at home with no idea what's about to hit them, sitting prepping their spring garden, dusting off the motorbike, de-rusting the kids bikes and mowing their lawn.

[wallopweather]

 

49 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

And, will the Express headlines put the mockers on it?

 

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, polar vortex for the uk..sounds good to me  ???

Surely this is too close to the reliable time frame for the Express to report on it, I expect Saturday's headline in the Express to be "Six months of heatwave and drought as hottest Summer ever arrives in the UK in April"

[Danielvn]

5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You know somethings afoot when you see people who've spent years screaming "it's always FI" and "don't believe the hype" are in full on ramp mode.

It's seems odd to think there's millions of British people sat at home with no idea what's about to hit them, sitting prepping their spring garden, dusting off the motorbike, de-rusting the kids bikes and mowing their lawn.

Or you know we're not far off being able to power the whole of the UK with hydroelectric power generated by the tears of cold rampers. I'm not going to lie, this is the best spell of cold weather I've seen modeled at such a short range, but it could still go pete tong.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. 

Good luck with that..winter is coming!!

[AderynCoch]

ECM is now showing -20C here next week (still a way off though). This week it's basically temperatures close to zero with frequent snow.

It's been a tame winter overall in Central Europe but it looks like it's going to go out with a bang.

[shotski]

21 minutes ago, knocker said:

It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east. 

This is definitely the case. 

The Balkans onto the freezer on this run