Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[snow freak]

30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Do-us a 'favour' tony.

Wack a link or some evidence up for that pal.

As all met-o, noise via 10-16dayer.. is well off course for how you have stated!!!

it would just be our luck (again) that Greece and Africa get the bitter cold and snow.  You couldn't make this up if we tried.  We must be the unluckiest country in the world for cold and snow when even Greece and Africa get it and we don't.

 

[Danielvn]

16 minutes ago, snow freak said:

it would just be our luck (again) that Greece and Africa get the bitter cold and snow.  You couldn't make this up if we tried.  We must be the unluckiest country in the world for cold and snow when even Greece and Africa get it and we don't.

 

But he literally did make it up...

[78/79]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Not that I'm bothered in the slightest but if you not taking into account my posts in the short mod. thread, where it's quite easy to be biased, then, as the post you quoted was referring to interpretation of the models, you must be talking about when I used to post in the main mod thread. So if I'm on the same level of bias as the majority who post in  there then I'll need to take a serous look at what I'm posting.

We've had our differences  of opinion over in the serious discussion thread Knocker , but  I also think that  your analysis is one  of the voices of reason among st all of the madness. It's like Christians being thrown to the Lions in that model thread if anyone  dares voice an alternative  point of view.

[Isabellesnanny]

At what stage should we be letting friends/family know about this upcoming cold spell, we have elderly parents and a very poorly baby in the family who is in special care 30 miles from home and being visited daily, if this comes off surely transport will be hindered, don't want to worry people unnecessarily but .....

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Isabellesnanny said:

At what stage should we be letting friends/family know about this upcoming cold spell, we have elderly parents and a very poorly baby in the family who is in special care 30 miles from home and being visited daily, if this comes off surely transport will be hindered, don't want to worry people unnecessarily but .....

Old Netweather suspicion is basically at T+0 but realistically when there's a clear danger for them. This will be a lot earlier than an elderly relative who's just come back from her sunny Spain winter expecting mild weather than a mid-20s relative who works away in Iceland. I'd let the parents of that baby now today if I were you so they can put a bit aside for taxi's/fuel next week if the buses are cancelled - initially snow wise there doesn't seem to much more danger than that yet. 

I'd say you should be making friends and family aware of met office weather warnings as they come out, or met office take note press statements as they come out. So the outlook for cold and snow should be raised now, with any wind/snow warnings raised at the back end of the week. With T+96 now lining up to open the easterly floodgates were tantalisingly close.

For everyone else, I'd drop hints about it getting holder "you might want to use the heating at bit less, or you're bill will be enormous by the end of the month"

[MarkM]

I'm a Cricket Groundsman in North Lincs and I'm 7-8 days away from wanting to start pre-season rolling as well as chain harrowing and then cutting the outfield , in total I've got about 4.5 acres to do , Is it too late to order a snowplough attachment for my tractor ?     

[northwestsnow]

Please please please ECM dont carry on torturing us all!!

UKMO /GFS /GEM/ICON all look marvellous (and yes i feel ukmo would go on to produce the goodies 24 hours after 144).

The model world unites against ECM, now stop being a blinkin scrooge!!

[Rammie]

22 minutes ago, MarkM said:

I'm a Cricket Groundsman in North Lincs and I'm 7-8 days away from wanting to start pre-season rolling as well as chain harrowing and then cutting the outfield , in total I've got about 4.5 acres to do , Is it too late to order a snowplough attachment for my tractor ?     

Well there's charts being posted which show 1cm of snow. Would you need a plough for that?

[Yarmy]

2 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Just seen meto 10 day. No mention of severe cold in UK, just colder. Looks like the cold severe weather will go down into Greece, Africa. Almost March....

To be fair, March is about 20 miles southwest of me so I would still be in the severe cold zone.

[MarkM]

23 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Well there's charts being posted which show 1cm of snow. Would you need a plough for that?

4.5 acres x 1cm ... Yeah probably  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Surprise, surprise the BBC are having none of it! ?

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Surprise, surprise the BBC are having none of it! ?

Seriously? Who the holy mother of cows is their new provider?

[Anti-Mild]

Ok, I've been trying to remain circumspect about this upcoming event, but it's now getting close to the reliable timeframe and this is shaping up to potentially be the most potent easterly since February 1991 and I find myself getting caught up in the ramping.

 

It's been a mantra on Netweather since I joined waaaay back in 2005 but we just need another couple of runs to feel more secure in this. ECM is being stubborn, and until we have cross-model agreement it's going to be a nervy wait until it's really on the doorstep.

 

I told my brother today that a "significant cold snap" was coming.....apologies if I've gone and jinxed it.

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Surprise, surprise the BBC are having none of it! ?

Could just be a reverse psychology thing!

[Shunter]

9 hours ago, Shunter said:

And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

and now according to 12z GFS Op the SE gets a 3 day Freeze followed by a mudfest as warm air pushes north from the SW. 

 

[stainesbloke]

Rain next Wednesday here, apparently 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Rain next Wednesday here, apparently 

I think that forecast has been written by a three year old.

It wont be raining for you mate ..

[Mokidugway]

21 minutes ago, MarkM said:

4.5 acres x 1cm ... Yeah probably  

18.211e+7cubic centimetres  

Edited February 19, 2018 by Mokidugway

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Deep FI, but vintage chart! used to happen all the time when I was a bairn 90's, snowy lows pushing up from the south, gale force E winds, sometimes turned to rain, sometimes didn't

very rare snowfests nowadays like this! need a good EC today, need everything north

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Rain next Wednesday here, apparently 

It’s looking very marginal ?

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s looking very marginal ?

Snow or sanity?!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s like it pains the BBC/weather apps to go with more realistically colder temperatures. ?

Edited February 19, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s like it pains the BBC/weather apps to go with more realistically colder temperatures. ?

They're crap! will be saying 8° in a true beast

[Weather-history]

 

 

[Number 23]

Blimey...

If that ECM run comes off it's going to evoke memories of '91. 

Still skeptical until we see this at +72, but surely a 75% chance of something severe emerging now.

Imagine the fallout if it goes wrong...