Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We already had the QTR which got put back , then now the next one imploded.

We don’t have weeks to sit around waiting for decent synoptics.

The longer this goes in the more exceptional the synoptics have to be to deliver. There’s only so much cold you can get with the fast increasing solar energy into March.

Now now, Nick. Far be it from me to ramp, but didn't the UK experience its coldest March for some 100 years in 2013? Sure I read that somewhere.

Quite true in one part. The longer time ticks, the more special the event needed.

[Lampostwatcher]

the met office said it WILL get colder 

so that's means it will.???

not MAYBE or MIGHT 

or even COULD 

they said it WILL ?

Edited February 15, 2018 by Lampostwatcher

[Froze were the Days]

If this SSW fails to bring any cold into the UK it will about sum up this winter...misfiring with some failed attempted near marginal shots and very little real cold on tap...I've only had 2 days where daily maxes have failed to get up above 3c, saya it all!!...YES I too can use exclamation marks as well (just like somebody on the model thread who seems to know it all)

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

the met office said it WILL get colder 

so that's means it will.???

not MAYBE or MIGHT 

or even COULD 

they said it WILL ?

Maybe because it might be Mild beforehand? and even if it gets 2 or 3 degrees colder then technically they're right.

Vague.

[Allezwasps.]

Not convinced

[MIKE LEVITT]

;ooks like the east coast will finally get lying snow end of next week.about time too.

[SLEETY]

Let’s just ignore the met office update this afternoon then,

they would not put out such a bold update regarding cold and snow unless they were supremely confident at that range

They have access to far more info then we do

lots Of posters here going to have egg on their faces this time next week

 

including the so called experts and cold rampers writing off this cold spell happening now

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Let’s just ignore the met office update this afternoon then,

they would not put out such a bold update regarding cold and snow unless they were supremely confident at that range

They have access to far more info then we do

lots Of posters here going to have egg on their faces this time next week

 

including the so called experts and cold rampers writing off this cold spell happening now

 

 

 

I'm afraid it wouldnt be the first time Exeter have gone 'cold' only to backtrack at a rate of knots.

I admire your fortitude sleety but i think this ship has sailed..(certainly as far as winter is concerned )..

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Indeed it is.  I am now looking at the long range CFS December 2018 charts (does it go out that far?).  Maybe, just maybe we might have a little lying snow then!

hopefully the SE will get a nice summer to make up for another mediocre winter

[Lampostwatcher]

14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Maybe because it might be Mild beforehand? and even if it gets 2 or 3 degrees colder then technically they're right.

Vague.

thing is I've never seen them write the word it WILL get colder 

before 

normally it's low confidence 

[Thinon]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Let’s just ignore the met office update this afternoon then,

they would not put out such a bold update regarding cold and snow unless they were supremely confident at that range

They have access to far more info then we do

lots Of posters here going to have egg on their faces this time next week

 

including the so called experts and cold rampers writing off this cold spell happening now

 

 

 

Well now even their own models are showing things to the contrary, so...

[SLEETY]

No don’t give up northwest ,it’s still on the cold spell,the ops have been all over the place recently

This winter here so far rubbish

still no lying snow almost 5 years

two days of falling snow

that it

looking forward to the heavy snowfall to see out the winter season now yipee

[Froze were the Days]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

hopefully the SE will get a nice summer to make up for another mediocre winter

believe me in the south east we haven't had a poorish summer since 2012...every summer we're guaranteed at least a very warm spell, you can't say that about cold with our winters though.

[sausage]

okay the weather will do what it will do but the weather gods have let us dwn. i feel so feflated its untrue. i have waited n waited n nothing. fed up of the charys promising so much just to let us dwn. the excitement n adrenaline rush that snowy potential gives us is too much when it lets us dwn to take!! dont think i will get as excited or positive again for next winter niw because we just seem to have such mild consistant winters now that its a waste of time. there are many pros on here tht have egg on there face im afraid after hyping this ssw up and the bbc forecasters too have dun themselves no favours but never accept that there wrong.

[That ECM]

Jeez, flipping heck, pants, got the hump. At least I had 4 days in Lapland and saw a foot of snow fall in 24hrs. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by That ECM

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm afraid it wouldnt be the first time Exeter have gone 'cold' only to backtrack at a rate of knots.

I admire your fortitude sleety but i think this ship has sailed..(certainly as far as winter is concerned )..

Yep I would bet my house , car , savings and my dog that the METO have it wrong . There is no way all off the models we can see have got this wrong , obviously except for the ICON. That's me done for this winter. Just everyone remind me next year not to trust the ECM , UKMO, GFS, all ensemble data , the BBC , the met updates , all the lesser crapy models or any off the telecommunications it's all a load off ? When it comes to predicting cold weather for the uk . Rant over , see you all next year . 

[lassie23]

fergie weather has been wrong loads of times

[sausage]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep I would bet my house , car , savings and my dog that the METO have it wrong . There is no way all off the models we can see have got this wrong , obviously except for the ICON. That's me done for this winter. Just everyone remind me next year not to trust the ECM , UKMO, GFS, all ensemble data , the BBC , the met updates , all the lesser crapy models or any off the telecommunications it's all a load off ? When it comes to predicting cold weather for the uk . Rant over , see you all next year . 

agreed

[Big Snow]

The problem, as I see it, is not the accuracy of the models but people taking output at day 10 as gospel. It's called 'FI' for a reason - charts at that range almost never verify. Yet 90 per cent of the analysis on the MOD thread is of charts at extended range. No wonder people feel let down when the output changes. If people stuck to analysing charts within the 5-day timeframe there would be a lot less disappointment.

[parrotingfantasist]

It hasn't been the best Winter either here in Derry/Londonderry in the north west so far. We got only one snow lying day in the whole of 2018, and that December cold spell was basically frozen hail. NW airstreams generally only deal with higher altitudes. Hey, its the first lying snow for 3 years so its not the worst.

 

This winter has been incredibly cruel, dangling a carrot then pulling it away. I feel for you coldies in the south as these easterlies are really your only chance.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO was crap this morning though on 00Z, 

[Sneachtastorm]

2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

It hasn't been the best Winter either here in Derry/Londonderry in the north west so far. We got only one snow lying day in the whole of 2018, and that December cold spell was basically frozen hail. NW airstreams generally only deal with higher altitudes. Hey, its the first lying snow for 3 years so its not the worst.

 

This winter has been incredibly cruel, dangling a carrot then pulling it away. I feel for you coldies in the south as these easterlies are really your only chance.

You're on the coast though aren't you? I'm inland low elevation and had most snow since 2010 this year. 

[Mokidugway]

I can't understand folk writing off winter yet ,personally I'm not bothered about snow  and would like an early spring ,but theres still a chance albeit desperately slim for a snow event .

[Decemberof2010]

10 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

The problem, as I see it, is not the accuracy of the models but people taking output at day 10 as gospel. It's called 'FI' for a reason - charts at that range almost never verify. Yet 90 per cent of the analysis on the MOD thread is of charts at extended range. No wonder people feel let down when the output changes. If people stuck to analysing charts within the 5-day timeframe there would be a lot less disappointment.

I sort of agree. But now you've got a UKMO inside 5 days that has flipped on its next run! Go figure 

[parrotingfantasist]

3 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

You're on the coast though aren't you? I'm inland low elevation and had most snow since 2010 this year. 

Nope, just 25 or so meters of elevation inland. We just get unlucky with the showers, and when we do they can just be sleet or hail.