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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

No, but its a democracy and people don't have to conform to what we think is acceptable. 

Good grief is this a new concept? Have the apparatchiks in the MOD thread been informed.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

I was hoping for an Easterly 

But my grandmother isn't she remembers the winter of 1947

Were cattle froze stood up.

I'm going to have to help her out with her gas bill if we get this Easterly, as she spends all her money and winter fuel payments on bingo and fine Brandy. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Well I did do 20 years in the North Atlantic on Ocean Weather Ships experiencing some very extreme weather so for half my working life I had to suspend my hatred of extreme. And I actually extremely dislike the liberal use of the words hate and hatred that permeates this site..

When they cut the Social Care budget by £4 billion in the last parliament.

Hi Knocker.   Wow!  Didn't know about your sea going past.  Bet you've got some great stories to tell down the pub as I know what the after effects of even a relatively mild storm can do to a channel ferry crossing.  :bad:.   I can't deny that I still get a little excited, even at my age, at the sight of snow falling and settling - it simply transforms the landscape into a photographers dream - but I also agree that many people need to be careful what they wish for.....  All extreme weather events are a threat to life somewhere and surely no-one would wish for weather related deaths?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Hi Knocker.   Wow!  Didn't know about your sea going past.  Bet you've got some great stories to tell down the pub as I know what the after effects of even a relatively mild storm can do to a channel ferry crossing.  :bad:.   I can't deny that I still get a little excited, even at my age, at the sight of snow falling and settling - it simply transforms the landscape into a photographers dream - but I also agree that many people need to be careful what they wish for.....  All extreme weather events are a threat to life somewhere and surely no-one would wish for weather related deaths?

What like when I was aft filling a radiosonde balloon in a force 11 when the cold front went through accompanied by the usual massive wind veer and........ no mustn't go there as I'm feeling tad nauseous and I can hear the violins being tuned, :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

 

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

If you think a long term solution to social care in this country is relevant to social care in this country then fair enougth.

The elderly have been protected the most with above inflation pension increase and winter fuel payments, 

the IFs states by 2019 the social care budget will have grown by 3.9% from its 2009/10 level.

Some cuts have been initiated by councils that priorities in other areas. The same councils that got bigger  grant under Labour for purely political reasons had their grants reduced inline with the rest of the UK.

I'm not going to think about the consequence of something i have no control over, like I don't think about Earthquakes Tsunamis etc etc, Which I also find interesting.

Did you put salt in your coffee by mistake this morning?:help:

Edited by Steve C
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

A nice springlike weekend coming up by the looks of it and extending into the first bit of next week too. Double figure temps and light winds should feel pleasant enough for the time of year. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera

I'm a serial lurker as can be seen by my join date and lack of posts but is it just me or does the MOD thread just seem to be full of people who want to find charts that illustrate cold, as opposed to discussing the model output with a view to making accurate predictions of what the weather is going to be like?

When the GFS doesn't do what people want then the ECM is the model to choose and if that doesn't do what people want then it's NAVGEM or something else. The cold rampers always seem to be looking to find a way to twist things to suit their end goal. There's also the desperate move of showing how in X year we went from conditions similar to where we are now to snowpocalypse conditions as if this is somehow a worthwhile way of making predictions.

The weather does what it does and doesn't care a bit for what you want, need or what you feel you 'deserve'.

I'm probably jaffa cakesing on someone's bonfire here, but how many times over the years has something been 'nailed on' and then just not happened or been watered down at best? It comes across as chart chasing rather than a genuine interest in the weather that actually happens outside your window.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, Danielvn said:

I'm a serial lurker as can be seen by my join date and lack of posts but is it just me or does the MOD thread just seem to be full of people who want to find charts that illustrate cold, as opposed to discussing the model output with a view to making accurate predictions of what the weather is going to be like?

 

The reality is the weather in this country is relatively boring, and bar a few occasions, we don't get extremes of weather and the weather is relatively easy to predict with a West to East jet over a warm Atlantic.

Many in the MOD thread, and I include myself in this, like to see more extreme events in particular snow events, therefore some get hung up on each and every run if snow is a possibility.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Are there any signs of Spring on the horizon? I know this weekend is supposed to be pleasant, but if the deep cold is getting pushed back into FI all the time, i would rather look for signs of warmth.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm obviously concerned about the impacts of climate change and , over the period of my interest, we have seen ever more common record breaking weather event?

The current SSW seems to be another 'record breaking' event. How well are models able to cope with events outside their programming?

It is the same with wider climate models, do we keep current with our programmes , updating them to expand the range of possible outcomes, or are they always 'behind the game' with extreme events only added into the mix after they have occurred?

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
2 hours ago, knocker said:

What like when I was aft filling a radiosonde balloon in a force 11 when the cold front went through accompanied by the usual massive wind veer and........ no mustn't go there as I'm feeling tad nauseous and I can hear the violins being tuned, :whistling:

Well, I'm definitely buying you a drink on the strength of that story alone, if I should ever find myself in the Cambourne area!   In the meantime, as this is the 'moans' thread, among other things, I wish the models could find a way to agree with each other on what's going to happen in the next seven days - you wouldn't  think it was beyond the ability of modern computer science to achieve that much?   Mind you, it cant even provide me with a decent broadband speed yet - still working at a snails pace here - so I won't hold my breath.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Are there any signs of Spring on the horizon? I know this weekend is supposed to be pleasant, but if the deep cold is getting pushed back into FI all the time, i would rather look for signs of warmth.

I know what you mean - while I enjoy a bit of cold and snow I do fear that we may be heading for a very late spring (which could drag on into the summer months and leave us without a decent summer). But, as always, time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The reality is the weather in this country is relatively boring, and bar a few occasions, we don't get extremes of weather and the weather is relatively easy to predict with a West to East jet over a warm Atlantic.

Many in the MOD thread, and I include myself in this, like to see more extreme events in particular snow events, therefore some get hung up on each and every run if snow is a possibility.

The thing is I love cold snowy weather too. But the little I know in meteorological terms tells me that it's going to be a relatively rare occurrence and the snowy period in early December is better than we get most years IMBY. Some of the language is puzzling too, "why does x region always get shortchanged when it comes to cold?" and so on. The weather will do what the weather will do regardless of whether you want it to or not.

Oh btw mods, I saw your edit on my post and won't use that word in the future :)

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
35 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

The thing is I love cold snowy weather too. But the little I know in meteorological terms tells me that it's going to be a relatively rare occurrence and the snowy period in early December is better than we get most years IMBY. Some of the language is puzzling too, "why does x region always get shortchanged when it comes to cold?" and so on. The weather will do what the weather will do regardless of whether you want it to or not.

Oh btw mods, I saw your edit on my post and won't use that word in the future :)

You're on a weather forum, the interest is going to lie in "weather events" - another drab, mild, slightly wet and overcast February day is not a weather event. A foot of snow in March is a "weather event" - therefore focus in the model thread is naturally going to err towards discussing the event potential, you'll find as we get into summer discussion will turn to potential for heatwaves and storms; again these are actual "events". 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

I've been thinking about the Northern Hemisphere SSW that happened last w/e. How many square thousand miles does it impact and how many parts of the NH will it advect cold to?

If u take our v small set of islands in the NH is it correct to think we'd have to be pretty damn 'lucky' to actually be affected by it and get cold temps? Or am interpreting incorrectly?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
17 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You're on a weather forum, the interest is going to lie in "weather events" - another drab, mild, slightly wet and overcast February day is not a weather event. A foot of snow in March is a "weather event" - therefore focus in the model thread is naturally going to err towards discussing the event potential, you'll find as we get into summer discussion will turn to potential for heatwaves and storms; again these are actual "events". 

As these events are, by definition, quite rare it does explain why much of the time is taken up by imaginative hyperbole going under the guise of potential. 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
1 hour ago, Buzz said:

I know what you mean - while I enjoy a bit of cold and snow I do fear that we may be heading for a very late spring (which could drag on into the summer months and leave us without a decent summer). But, as always, time will tell.

I don’t personally think a cold Spring leads to a cool summer, but I could be wrong. March 2013 was freezing yet July 2013 was a scorcher down south.

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm obviously concerned about the impacts of climate change and , over the period of my interest, we have seen ever more common record breaking weather event?

The current SSW seems to be another 'record breaking' event. How well are models able to cope with events outside their programming?

It is the same with wider climate models, do we keep current with our programmes , updating them to expand the range of possible outcomes, or are they always 'behind the game' with extreme events only added into the mix after they have occurred?

The models will take it in their stride.  

It's common misconception that I've noticed on here - that the models are somehow programmed with an envelope of expected evolutions and struggle with extreme evolutions outside of it.

They don't work like that.  

They simply take the best guess of the state of the atmosphere at the start of the run (T0) and then simulate their best approximation to all the laws of physics that affect the atmosphere (or atmosphere and oceans in the case of the seasonal ones e.g. CFS) for the length of the run.  So the fact that the world is warmer than it used to be is irrelevant.

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
24 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You're on a weather forum, the interest is going to lie in "weather events" - another drab, mild, slightly wet and overcast February day is not a weather event. A foot of snow in March is a "weather event" - therefore focus in the model thread is naturally going to err towards discussing the event potential, you'll find as we get into summer discussion will turn to potential for heatwaves and storms; again these are actual "events". 

I'm aware I'm on a weather forum, but come on! Once you're wrong 10 times you really shouldn't go and make the same mistake again and again and again and again year after year after year.

Show some restraint, let it get within +120 or so and then get excited and talk about sausages. Anything before that is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
18 minutes ago, knocker said:

As these events are, by definition, quite rare it does explain why much of the time is taken up by imaginative hyperbole going under the guise of potential. 

As least the rarity of these events means Sydney typically doesn't have too many issues.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm obviously concerned about the impacts of climate change and , over the period of my interest, we have seen ever more common record breaking weather event?

The current SSW seems to be another 'record breaking' event. How well are models able to cope with events outside their programming?

It is the same with wider climate models, do we keep current with our programmes , updating them to expand the range of possible outcomes, or are they always 'behind the game' with extreme events only added into the mix after they have occurred?

This will be easily testable by examining the verification stats for the next few weeks to see if there's a decline. Might be worth making a note of the rolling anomaly corrections.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
10 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Is there any verification stats for it? I think it's quite new, this winter is the first I've seen it being rolled out and it's suddenly being rolled out as often as the other models, though I suspect the slightly earlier run time helps with that

The DWD ICON has been around for quite some time. I've had it on my site for a couple of years now.. 


I like to use it in plume setup's, it usually has quite a good handle on  thundery scenarios that develop across France and push in to Southern counties. I only ever take it in to consideration out to 48 hours, though.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for the reply but it still leaves me thinking that with the number of extremes on the go a.t.m ( Strat/MJO/Arctic temps/Canadian temps) we just might be treated to some very extreme outcomes run to run? Massive flip flopping above and beyond the normal?

It might be as extreme as seeing and extension to Winter or a bite at an early spring?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

I give up on the Model thread!:nonono:   I appreciate that the models are hardly consistent ion their output, but that's all the more reason to think logically rather than reacting to the changes and typing agonised posts one minute and excited the next.  What's worse, IMO, are the posts that seem to be deliberately annoying other members, usually mild ramps without any evidence provided to support the assertions that are being made.  Cumulatively, the effect is that no two posts on the same model run seem to agree.  I appreciate that individual members' interpretations of the outputs will generate differing views on what the models are showing, but we seem to have opinions at present that range from deep cold and snow through to late spring warmth.  I'm half expecting to see someone predict a Spanish Plume with a Mesoscale Convective System!:rofl:

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