Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

Sidney says that certainly warms my cockles

[davehsug]

Never quite understood why the models are only "struggling",  when they don't show what you want. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the beast just won't come out of the 300's, most model runs lately been downgrades, as the beast not coming out of FI

[Tonyinhampshire]

So we are entering Winter in March , just when Europe gets start of heatwave. We get cold drizzle....great, thankyou

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Hirudine said:

When I lived in Germany back in the 80s I made an igloo with some friends, although as it was in a public space (we lived in a block of flats at the time) we didn't sleep in it overnight. I think yours looks a lot neater than ours did, as we made bricks by rolling snow into big balls and then shaping them- the ice cream tubs sound like a better idea!

I was stationed in Hameln with an amphibious regiment in 1987. Cold is not the word to describe that January.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I'll avoid the model thread. These days its a hopecasters and straw clutchers thread with far too much credence and attention getting paid to beyond T240.  

[knocker]

You have to hand it to the GEFS. Trop vortex lobe NE Canada, ridge migrating to eastern Greenland and Diazepam sales through the roof.

And as for the ecm

It giveth and then it taketh away

[snowblizzard]

I'm totally and utterly fed-up with model watching!

So, that's it, I'm not going to look again until Monday next week when perhaps we might know which way this will finally go?

[Methuselah]

Crikey. I have just heard "much, much colder" mentioned on the BBC, and you guys are reaching for the cyanide capsules! 

[Gustywind]

Still sticking with my U.K. high prediction from the model thread this morning, followed by a slow sink into the continent to end Feb. Seen these scenarios so many times over the last 15 years and I can recall hardly any of them coming off, probably a 90% failure rate as the high fails to get the amplitude promised in FI.

Bitter cold easterly I’d put at 10% probability.

[Thinon]

The cold spell will arrive in April. Temperatures will be 6-7C instead of the average 13-14C

[Hirudine]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

I was stationed in Hameln with an amphibious regiment in 1987. Cold is not the word to describe that January.

We were in Menden then, before we returned to the UK. Those German winters have always been my benchmark for proper snow

[jvenge]

The 12z GEFS isn't much different from the 0z and 6z runs. Of course, I'm not looking at just Op runs as the cool kids do.

 

 

 

[jvenge]

ECM control brings cold to most of Europe, just not to you know where.

Mean appears to suggest those favouring an easterly winning out, but big question marks over the potency if they did. Has to be a fairly large cluster keeping heights over the UK and not reaching further desired to get that mean.

Fun and games to be had yet.

 

[78/79]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Crikey. I have just heard "much, much colder" mentioned on the BBC, and you guys are reaching for the cyanide capsules! 

I'll stick to the old fashioned way Pete, watch the t.v , and stick my head out of the back door every morning   

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, - 40*C said:

I'll avoid the model thread. These days its a hopecasters and straw clutchers thread with far too much credence and attention getting paid to beyond T240.  

While the ops toss, turn and fight, the ensemble means make fairly good friends tonight - see D10 below:

    

Very good agreement on a very good easterly

 

There is some reasoning behind the theorys

Edited February 13, 2018 by winterof79

[EML Network]

That's it, I've seen enough, Winter is over I really can't be bothered any more. 

I'm done with chart watching it's just pointless

[igloo]

Anyone fancy a 10c easterly or a 10c northerly because thats al i see in the models by the this so called beastly arives it will be next febuary what a joke its like watching paint dry roll on spring

[Deep Snow please]

I simply cannot comment on this image in any way that is not a ramp, hence this thread. 

Opens the floodgates for a major major event with a bit of further development for a Greenland high, there's even snow potential ready to belt in. 1947 - a mere frost, 1964, a mere frost, 1979, a mere frost,  2009/2010 - a mere frost. 

SNOWMAGGEDON! February 21st. 

[davehsug]

Oh dear. It's a good job naughty corners are either revolving, or easily escaped by putting out a "Stella" (sigh), run. I'm glad I'm not a weather model,just imagine being adored or stabbed because of the way you add 0 & 1 together!

[Bristawl Si]

Wait and See job.

Not worth taking much notice of output until a few days time i reck. By then one would think the effects of the SSW will have filtered through to model output. Or am i just writing tosh?!

[bigdog1]

I still think we are being led up the garden path I think this will all come to nothing

 

[Mucka]

Frame it.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Couldn't agree more, with ajpoolsharks' comments, on the MAD thread last night, some members really do need, to get a life!!
Or perhaps, a new hobby, or should I say, a new obsession, because that's what it is!! Very weird, needy , obsessive behaviour. If this cold spell doesn't come to fruition, it really isn't the end of life, as we know it!! There are really far more important things in life, to worry about.

Regards,

Tom.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Couldn't agree more, with ajpoolsharks' comments, on the MAD thread last night, some members really do need, to get a life!!
Or perhaps, a new hobby, or should I say, a new obsession, because that's what it is!! Very weird, needy , obsessive behaviour. If this cold spell doesn't come to fruition, it really isn't the end of life, as we know it!! There are really far more important things in life, to worry about.

Regards,

Tom.

That rather depends on your viewpoint, Apart from the fact that very cold weather makes me feel unwell I have three main reasons why any forthcoming intensely cold weather concerns me.

1. It sends heating bills through the roof which disproportionately affects the elderly and sick

2. A very negative affect on wildlife

3. And it will speed up the cull of the vulnerable and elderly, like myself, initiated by the Tories and currently well under way.