Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Tracy Flick]

March easterlies need a northerly component for lasting settled snow.  By April the requirement has become a full-on northerly.  

The most statistically likely outcome is the worst of both worlds:  no memorable snow and no pleasant warmth.

[MP-R]

39 minutes ago, Smartie said:

I agree fully MP-R but the way that poster worded it as in march is useless for cold and snow, it isn't. 

Severe wintry weather in March may be rare but it has happened before and no doubt will happen again in the future. 

Yes indeed. Maybe this year will be one of those years. The wintriest ones tend to come every 5-7 years it seems i.e. 1996, 2001, 2006, (2008), 2013, .... 2018? Think I'm more interested in snow now though than severe temperatures, we've had plenty of time for that during the actual winter months.

[cobbett]

So according to the Metoffice weather warning for the NW...

Some injuries are possible from slips and falls on icy surfaces.

Blimey I never knew that falling on an icy surface could be so dangerous. You live and learn eh. Best warn the kids asap

[knocker]

Of course an alternative scenario is for the surface high to be centered NW of the UK but close enough to advect colder south into central Europe. Sacre bleu!

 

[knocker]

Now if we could just pivot that high cell and and veer that wind a tad

[supernova]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GFS is back with the garden path showing Easterlies again by t216! ?

Back up the garden path or straght ahead to Route SSW and all the way through Winter Wonderland for an audience with the Beast from the East? Either plausible at this stage.

[Chevron12345]

Full on winter at GFS 276 then full on spring at 348!!

[Buzz]

From looking at the main model thread it appears that the cyanide pills have been put away for a while (and the toys have subsequently been stashed away in the prams), at least until the ECM output later on.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Buzz

[Summer Sun]

If only it was summer

 

[Buzz]

If only .......... I'm looking forward to some nice, dry, warm, sunny days.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

If only it was summer

 

Ay SS but not at 384! will downgrade to crappy average, rain and 8C for now, same for summer only 8 degrees higher

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If only it was summer

 

I wonder if the recent SSW will help boost chances of some favourable blocking for summer?    

[markw2680]

Aarrrr I just wana moan so iv come here. As good as the latest charts are it’s so annoying that it’s constantly getting pushed back and yet people just say upgrade etc. It’s not a bloody upgrade if it never gets closer!!!! I hope it does but it will soon be March for the good bloody charts. Anyway back to the brilliant models we go

[knocker]

Not a snow chart at day 16 as per normal but a PLUME

[Buzz]

13 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Aarrrr I just wana moan so iv come here. As good as the latest charts are it’s so annoying that it’s constantly getting pushed back and yet people just say upgrade etc. It’s not a bloody upgrade if it never gets closer!!!! I hope it does but it will soon be March for the good bloody charts. Anyway back to the brilliant models we go

The model output is the carrot on a stick ........ but does that make some of us the donkey?

[Bradowl]

The Sun is getting stronger now it's getting higher in sky, any significant snow will melt as we go towards end of month. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Bradowl said:

The Sun is getting stronger now it's getting higher in sky, any significant snow will melt as we go towards end of month. 

Agree with that, higher too, shining on more surfaces, if today had been Dec, none of my snow would have thawed until tomorrow when mild air comes in from the west

[James1979]

6 hours ago, cobbett said:

So according to the Metoffice weather warning for the NW...

Some injuries are possible from slips and falls on icy surfaces.

Blimey I never knew that falling on an icy surface could be so dangerous. You live and learn eh. Best warn the kids asap

There were the usual warnings at Kings Cross last week (it was drizzling) due to the "inclement weather" and the chance of slipping or getting wet, blah, blah - I honestly don't know how we all survived before these warnings - I took the necessary action of course and put on my extra grip shoes just in case.  Everywhere you go not its endless inane announcements in case someone wants to sue, so sad.

[Summer Sun]

14 minutes ago, James1979 said:

There were the usual warnings at Kings Cross last week (it was drizzling) due to the "inclement weather" and the chance of slipping or getting wet, blah, blah - I honestly don't know how we all survived before these warnings - I took the necessary action of course and put on my extra grip shoes just in case.  Everywhere you go not its endless inane announcements in case someone wants to sue, so sad.

 

I've heard that at Kings X many times little drizzle outside and they put inclement weather messages over the tannoy if people run and slip tough common sense should tell you not to run if the floor is wet on the concourse/platforms

elf and safety goes made sometimes

[knocker]

On the other hand we aren't all traveling through King's Cross and I don't think it a bad idea to warn people of ice, particularly the elderly and those a bit unsteady on their pins like me as we all aren't so weather wise as everyone on here appears to be. And talking of common sense.......................

[cobbett]

It was more the metoffice info that falling and slipping on ice can cause injuries  - just warn that its icy and to take extra care

[JoeShmoe]

Its almost painful to watch the lemmings hurtling toward the cliff yet again ...

[Bradowl]

I like what I'm reading in model thread but our local bbc are predicting double figure temps by next Sunday. 

[Ice Man 85]

I must be missing something. The ECM 12z looks milder to me. Most of the country in double digit temps this weekend. How is that an improvement?

[Stationary Front]

Why do we have this constant nonsense over stronger sun. On Feb 12th 2008 in 8 hours of sunshine the max temp was 14.3c. On Feb 12th 1985 in 8 hours of sunshine the max temp was -1.0.

In 1985 your snow would have lasted - it’s all about the air aloft it matters not whether the sun is out in Mid/late Feb or March