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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

Just this minute watched a news article on BBC News 24 - regarding SSW - Met O representative indicated very high probability of Easterlies by next Monday and MOGREPS model was mentioned - sounded like MET O are very confident - also mentioned that QTR is yet to become established in freeview models - there is hope ?

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
2 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Make the most of it. All i keep hearing is "delayed spring", "bitter march" etc etc. It's been the same EVERY February since 2013. 

I wonder what the return rate is for a march like 2013? More than five years I would think. 

That said, I'm on leave the first week of march to get the garden sorted so that will definitely be a wet and very probably cold week.

i dont believe a word of it when i read about a delayed spring etc, things from what i see are going to be ok, perfect conditions to be outside in the garden etc, granted there looks like some rain at times but i think we can safely say the snow risk for this winter/early spring have now gone

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Posted
  • Location: Seaview - Isle of Wight
  • Location: Seaview - Isle of Wight
10 hours ago, Number 23 said:

Beautiful morning here today. Whatever happens over the next couple of weeks at least we'll have Spring knocking on the door. Hope the SSW doesn't have any effect in March. 

The sun is strong today and the cold models are weakening.... Roll on spring Double digit temperatures in the South and absolutely no indication of deep cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m

How much do you love warm weather in winter compared to how much you enjoy the likely disappointment of others who like cold? Sociopath central in here. No chart for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Considering the ecm is not exactly the flavour of the month it's not without interest that the EPS means in ext period have a highly amplified scenario with a trough in mid Atlantic with strong ridging over Scandinavia and the surface high over Norway. It would not take a huge adjustment of the alignment of the major players to advect cold air in from the north east and the most important resurrection for a couple of thousand years would be underway

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Posted
  • Location: DL
  • Location: DL
47 minutes ago, knocker said:

Considering the ecm is not exactly the flavour of the month it's not without interest that the EPS means in ext period have a highly amplified scenario with a trough in mid Atlantic with strong ridging over Scandinavia and the surface high over Norway. It would not take a huge adjustment of the alignment of the major players to advect cold air in from the north east and the most important resurrection for a couple of thousand years would be underway

I like how Knocker lifts our spirits when we're suicidal and tempers our mood when we're ecstatic... he's like a resident therapist.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
16 minutes ago, meh said:

I like how Knocker lifts our spirits when we're suicidal and tempers our mood when we're ecstatic... he's like a resident therapist.

Resident minister of keeping it real.

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
17 minutes ago, meh said:

I like how Knocker lifts our spirits when we're suicidal and tempers our mood when we're ecstatic... he's like a resident therapist.

A lot of people will need therapy if the GFS 18z comes off :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

This SSW reminds me of a song:

When I logged on to this URL, I asked the models what will I see?

Will it be freezing? Will it me mild? Here's what they said to me...

dc74488e0deee924d59cc9dddbdf12b3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

If we do get this Easterly it’s too late to save this pathetic winter down here,as it be beginning of March before we see the full  effect of the SSW and that’s spring lol,however if it ends up rivalling March 2013 and the heavy snowfall mid-month then it’s some kind of consolation.

just two days of falling snow and a sprinkling that looked like someone had shaken talcum powder on the ground,is all we have had here.

Pathetic,still no lying snow for coming up 5 years can this SSW save that pathetic fact .

To Think  we were almost guaranteed one decent Easterly a season  in winters gone by which would mean at least several days of bitter cold and lying snow in the WINTER months, now it seems you have to wait decades to see one Easterly outbreak.

And some  professional people are still in denial that the climate has changed.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
11 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

It needs saying . The point I'm trying to make is people stick there neck out and comment on how the models may evolve . And yer they may get it wrong and it don't work out but at least they comment on the evolution. Crewe just comes in when it's going wrong and says told , can see it a mile off etc etc . Cheers 

That’s a bit harsh isn’t,from the posts I have seen from him,he is normally pretty good at predicting that a cold spell won’t be happening when the models are showing it incoming and posters going boom etc,and then the cold spell never actually arrives,which isn’t surprising in this pathetic Island ,if you like cold and snowy weather,which sits as the same latitude as Arctic Canda yet snow only lies properly for more than a day or so about 2000ft in the Highlands:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
1 minute ago, Matthew. said:

Really hoping we can squeeze a March 2003, 2012 out but I can’t see it happening with the colder pattern probably arriving. I suppose you never know though

Yes but down here even the 2013 event was a non event so for me I am done for winter 2017. Onto summer for me 

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Crikey, the Mod thread, really is a place inhabited by the needy, where patience is in extremely, short supply.

Or as  the French, succinctly put it, " Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!"

This is the first Winter, I've spent, any appreciable time on there, since my stroke, in September 2015. It's now coming back to me, what a nightmare, the thread is. We may not achieve, HLB from this SSW, in a favourable location, for the UK but come on, does it really necessitate, some of the responses, on there.

There really are more important things in life.

Regards,

Tom.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, knocker said:

This isn't a million miles away from last night's ext EPS :shok:

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_65.thumb.png.3456d8a4ce481a6a435fb154867ea14f.png

And the ext EPS means continuing in the same vein this morning with similar amplification albeit the ridge a tad further east with the surface high over southern Norway. Where will it all end? Heaven forbid the Atlantic trough becomes negatively tilted thus re-orientating the high cell and initiating CAA from the north east. Doesn't bear thinking about Sidney. Albeit at this stage temps not that much below average

caption_squirrel.jpg

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

Could be a glimmer of spring in the offering today?  I am hoping so, because by this stage, I am looking for a light at the end of the cold tunnel.  I am patiently waiting for a day showing a sun symbol accompanied by the number 15C.  I would estimate 3-5 weeks.

ECH1-192_acz3.GIF

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
4 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I might be wrong but a SSW can actually change the current situation in the atmosphere and strengthen the upper winds in the polar vortex so we get mild SW winds for a  long time. I think that happened winter 2011/12

Still looks pretty mild in both GFS and ECM, anyway it's getting too late for any proper cold and the sun angle is high

What a load of tosh that is, March can deliver cold and snow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 minutes ago, Smartie said:
11 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I might be wrong but a SSW can actually change the current situation in the atmosphere and strengthen the upper winds in the polar vortex so we get mild SW winds for a  long time. I think that happened winter 2011/12

Still looks pretty mild in both GFS and ECM, anyway it's getting too late for any proper cold and the sun angle is high


What a load of tosh that is, March can deliver cold and snow.

 

Wouldn't say it's complete tosh Smartie, but the comment was not worded well. Of course we can get cold and snow in March but the criteria for such conditions need to be that bit better than say mid December to mid Feb. The number of cold spells in March I've looked at on the archives and thought, 'I wonder what that would've been like in midwinter', like 12th March 2006 followed by a ten day easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
10 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Wouldn't say it's complete tosh Smartie, but the comment was not worded well. Of course we can get cold and snow in March but the criteria for such conditions need to be that bit better than say mid December to mid Feb. The number of cold spells in March I've looked at on the archives and thought, 'I wonder what that would've been like in midwinter', like 12th March 2006 followed by a ten day easterly.

I agree fully MP-R but the way that poster worded it as in march is useless for cold and snow, it isn't. 

Severe wintry weather in March may be rare but it has happened before and no doubt will happen again in the future. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

If this cold spell does arrive it’s too late here for any snow to lay long now,even in March 2013 the heavy snowfall mid month had mostly melted by mid afternoon.even if it was powdery when it was falling.

thats why it’s so frustrating we can’t get a decent Easterly in mid winter anymore

further north and on high ground you should be fine though

i can’t remember one time ever snow laying for a whole day here in March :gathering:

Edited by SLEETY
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