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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
2 minutes ago, meh said:

I'm pretty you're blaming the NHS's problems on the wrong people here.  But I guess that's the British way.

not at all , just feel that our priorities are wrong in respect of the balance between society development against scientific advances.

We have too many honorary scientists, lawyers and media artists and not enough quality tradesmen.    

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

just been read twitter al roads in iceland are blocked iceland  is snow bound!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Thing is this winter which in my neck of the woods has really failed to get going as in many parts, spluttering cold snaps which only ends up in a brief slushy dusting (if you can get such a thing) and no real cold apart from one day in December and 37 days without an air frost from the end of December to about a few days ago. What makes this winter frustrating and I know there have been some lucky areas in this tiny country of ours that have done ok but it comes on the back of 4 previous winters that have been poor in terms of snow and real cold. I could name many 'poorish' winters (since the millenia) for coldies that have had colder snaps/spells than this which makes it more the worrying that this winter has so far been perceived to be chilly.

No doubt next winter we'll all be hooked back in again with great expectations and hope which will out way the reality with all the talk of solar minima etc..

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent
11 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just been read twitter al roads in iceland are blocked iceland  is snow bound!!!

I was there earlier this year and the weather is simply mental.... Heavy snow showers for a day followed by 80mph winds and driving rain all day followed the next day by the heaviest fall of snow for 80 years. 

Love their weather.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I've always preferred living in the now and reliable timeframe (just a problem when it's boring).

But the amount of ramping and garden paths in the MOD thread seems worse than ever this year, and seems to get worse every year. I've literally seen ramping charts at 2 weeks away that don't even show an easterly, because there's one for Denmark that could reach us if the output changes a little...

Whatever boat allowed a favourable quick SSW response with high latitude blocking suddenly setting up, may well have sailed.

I thought there were dangers in how bits of PV behave, and of the MJO stalling anyway.. maybe I should have highlighted these and not thought I was being overly pessimistic in the face of other far more knowledgeable members (and they are).

Though I'm a a bit skeptical that the teleconnections are as dominant as is sometimes portrayed. Too often have forecasts based on them failed in recent years. Also, many examples of a low behaving slightly differently upstream completely changing things. Such as when it looked good last winter.

It's not that they aren't a valuable tool, they are, as are posts about them. However they are prone to some of the same issues as other forecasting methods.. they don't always lead to the same result, and can be modelled incorrectly. Forecasts of MJO activity or whatever are produced by the very same global model runs that model our weather (so they can't be an entity that's separate to/above the models?).
Only if using verified (or nearly verified) actual data to suggest what might happen based on analogue data can I see it as an approach separate to the models (although how bad are the models at integrating these lagged effects into their projections anyway, and why do ensembles always give widely varying outcomes at 1 week plus if they always start with the same/similar MJO data etc, if it's not due not other factors?)

That's why I feel short-medium range forecasts using these tools on their own, are not always better than using model data. Seasonal forecasts may well be, although the Met Office seasonal model seems to have done well this winter.

Basically this long post is leading to my point that FI is FI, and there's not really any getting around that no matter what method you use or what level of SSW and MJO wave are forecast. 

So I should go back to enjoying whatever weather arrives, and not get excited by forecasts further than 5-7 days away especially if not all models agree (and even if they do, they can change).

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
19 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

 

No doubt next winter we'll all be hooked back in again with great expectations and hope which will out way the reality with all the talk of solar minima etc..

The Solar min is in my opinion one of the greatest reasons to be optimistic for a cold winter over the next few years. That is aslong as the Atlantic SST's are in our favour. I find it rather odd that we often read technical posts referring to MJO, GWO etc etc,blah blah blah, yet we hardly ever hear anything about the profile of the Atlantic SST's which have a massive influence on our weather patterns especially the NAO.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Although i remain optimistic that the period 20th Feb-10th March will deliver notable cold both the Euro and GFS are this morning illustrating one of the dangers after a SSW, namely that we shake the dice and end up with mid-lattitude blocking for a while. 

It's more common than people think..

In Jan 13 we got an easterly about a week after the SSW but that lasted all of about 10 days and we spent the next month under a big, fat high (quite a nice month actually).

In Feb 10 we got a SSW, saw the cold come back for a month but then spent a lot of march under a mid-lattitude block (the one in March seemed to have no effect at all).

Jan 09 was very similar to Feb 13 in that we got an easterly soon after but then spent a good 2-3 weeks under a mid-lattitude high (dull but very mild as i recall).

Jan 06 was another good example. In that example we had to wait 3 weeks for a significant pattern change and in the mean time spent a few weeks enjoying the frosty sunshine of a mid-lattitude high. 

AVN_1_2006020100_1.png

.. 

I'm certainly not saying that this is our destiny and there are SSW's that have delivered but i'm pointing out that it's not an uncommon solution for the cold spell to be short or come after a period of mid-lattitude blocking. Too many people are giddy and not informed. 

..

Also notable that while the GFS stalls the MJO in phase 7 (odd) the Euro does as i have been calling for a few weeks and kills it before any real amplification in phase 8 and 1 (La Nina) so we may be looking to phase 2/3 of the next wave. 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif  

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
48 minutes ago, Shunter said:

not at all , just feel that our priorities are wrong in respect of the balance between society development against scientific advances.

We have too many honorary scientists, lawyers and media artists and not enough quality tradesmen.    

If that was our attitude towards scientists then we would all be stuck in the dark ages. What a baffling statement.

As others have said, pointing the blame in the wrong direction. Scientific advances play a huge part in society development.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
9 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I've always preferred living in the now and reliable timeframe (just a problem when it's boring).

But the amount of ramping and garden paths in the MOD thread seems worse than ever this year, and seems to get worse every year. I've literally seen ramping charts at 2 weeks away that don't even show an easterly, because there's one for Denmark that could reach us if the output changes a little...

Whatever boat allowed a favourable quick SSW response with high latitude blocking suddenly setting up, may well have sailed.

I thought there were dangers in how bits of PV behave, and of the MJO stalling anyway.. maybe I should have highlighted these and not thought I was being overly pessimistic in the face of other far more knowledgeable members (and they are).

Though I'm a a bit skeptical that the teleconnections are as dominant as is sometimes portrayed. Too often have forecasts based on them failed in recent years. Also, many examples of a low behaving slightly differently upstream completely changing things. Such as when it looked good last winter.

It's not that they aren't a valuable tool, they are, as are posts about them. However they are prone to some of the same issues as other forecasting methods.. they don't always lead to the same result, and can be modelled incorrectly. Forecasts of MJO activity or whatever are produced by the very same global model runs that model our weather (so they can't be an entity that's separate to/above the models?).
Only if using verified (or nearly verified) actual data to suggest what might happen based on analogue data can I see it as an approach separate to the models (although how bad are the models at integrating these lagged effects into their projections anyway, and why do ensembles always give widely varying outcomes at 1 week plus if they always start with the same/similar MJO data etc, if it's not due not other factors?)

That's why I feel short-medium range forecasts using these tools on their own, are not always better than using model data. Seasonal forecasts may well be, although the Met Office seasonal model seems to have done well this winter.

Basically this long post is leading to my point that FI is FI, and there's not really any getting around that no matter what method you use or what level of SSW and MJO wave are forecast. 

So I should go back to enjoying whatever weather arrives, and not get excited by forecasts further than 5-7 days away especially if not all models agree (and even if they do, they can change).

Got to agree really, there's too much emphasis on how all these bizarre and random teleconnections may or may not lead to x,y and z weeks in advance, when in reality they never seem to come together as the educated guesses imply and just seems to be nothing more than a carrot dangling on a very long stick. I know that nobody's suggesting that these things should be taken as gospel, but I'm stating to think that there's too many failed predictions to take these methods either seriously or confidently anymore. No disrespect to anyone who views it differently or makes the effort to come up with ideas  based on these teleconnections of course, but until they start showing solidly consistent results (which to my mind they haven't) then we can only assume that anything beyond a few days is a complete mystery. There's a reason professional weather forecasts only go out a few days at a time. Perhaps it's not possible to know beyond that, not with the currently used methods anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

i for one am now looking forward to the late winter warmth, bbc weather forecast for here have double figure temps from thursday onwards, so if the winds fall light and with the sunshine i hoping it will feel pleasent enough

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Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
23 hours ago, Mildcarlisle said:

Anyone else share my view that since the SSW was forecast,the model thread has become the Fantasy Island thread? I understand the anticipation and excitement of the SSW and the 'potential' ramifications thereafter but almost all output being shown and discussed is all in F1.I hope we do get the protracted cold easterly and dreams sometimes come true but for now they are dreams even at a point of cross model agreement on day 10.

23 hrs later and the reality of dabbling and peddling F1 scenarios bites back.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Is winter back on or is it still completely over after this morning's runs? 

This forum gives great amusement.

Oh, it's snowing again. Be right back.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

But I remember you posting a few times a little while back saying we won't get anything out of this winter . You said we need s SSW to have a good chance of a proper spell off cold weather . And now your saying it doesn't guarantee cold weather and snow ,Your right it doesn't but we have a very good chance.  So what I don't get is why your being so down beat about it when we're having a SSW happening right now . You said that its are best chance ? All you do is come on here when it's going titts up and say told ya so ? 

I'm so glad you said this, been thinking the same thing myself. I remember him spouting on about needing an ssw to give proper cold weather this winter and now we have one occurring and he's back on moaning, as usual lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
13 minutes ago, Smartie said:

I'm so glad you said this, been thinking the same thing myself. I remember him spouting on about needing an ssw to give proper cold weather this winter and now we have one occurring and he's back on moaning, as usual lol. 

It needs saying . The point I'm trying to make is people stick there neck out and comment on how the models may evolve . And yer they may get it wrong and it don't work out but at least they comment on the evolution. Crewe just comes in when it's going wrong and says told , can see it a mile off etc etc . Cheers 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
Just now, ICE COLD said:

It needs saying . The point I'm trying to make is people stick there neck out and comment on how the models may evolve . And yer they may get it wrong and it don't work out but at least they comment on the evolution. Crewe just comes in when it's going wrong and says told , can see it a mile off etc etc . Cheers 

He never used to be like that. In fact before a couple of years ago he seemed to be quite positive in his outlook. Perhaps it's reverse psychology after all the let downs in the last few years. He'll get his snow fix one day though, and perhaps then we'll get the old positive glass half full Crewe back :D.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

He never used to be like that. In fact before a couple of years ago he seemed to be quite positive in his outlook. Perhaps it's reverse psychology after all the let downs in the last few years. He'll get his snow fix one day though, and perhaps then we'll get the old positive glass half full Crewe back :D.

Yer I no he is a very respected member on here and I like Crewe and he knows his stuff . Maybe when we get are snowy easterlies in ten days he'll be happy ?

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
5 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

i for one am now looking forward to the late winter warmth, bbc weather forecast for here have double figure temps from thursday onwards, so if the winds fall light and with the sunshine i hoping it will feel pleasent enough

Make the most of it. All i keep hearing is "delayed spring", "bitter march" etc etc. It's been the same EVERY February since 2013. 

I wonder what the return rate is for a march like 2013? More than five years I would think. 

That said, I'm on leave the first week of march to get the garden sorted so that will definitely be a wet and very probably cold week.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

some absolute nonsense being posted in here......I've known CC for a number a years and he is a very knowledgable and valued member of the forum.....his assessment of model output is normally correct and he is quite right when he has said in the past that a SSW is one of the best ways for a prolonged cold spell in the UK but is still absolutely no guarentee of it.....Rather than knock a poster needlessly, take note of his model thread posts, some members might learn something....and in closing CC does not come on the forum after things have gone wrong for whatever reason, if anyone doubts me a simple post history search will leave no doubt....I will leave it there but welcome feedback via pm if anyone feels the need to

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

I thought the Strat was supposed to have the meltdown not the ECM 

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