Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[snowblizzard]

So, MSSW & reversal starts today!

I think we can look forward to some really interesting & exciting model watching during the next couple of weeks.

But, whether it will actually fall in our favour (in terms of severe cold & snow) is still very much open to question.

Hopefully, we can experience something special, I think we deserve it!

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Bazray]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

So, MSSW & reversal starts today!

I think we can look forward to some really interesting & exciting model watching during the next couple of weeks.

But, whether it will actually fall in our favour is still very much open to question.

Hopefully, we can experience something special, I think we deserve it!

 

Getting a bit sick of model watching, would prefer a bit of curtain twiching and seeing a bit of snow on the lampost. Something is brewing out there, I can feel it

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by Bazray

[snowblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Getting a bit sick of model watching, would prefer a bit of curtain twiching and seeing a bit of snow on the lampost. Something is brewing out there, I can feel it

 

I know how you feel Bazray, let's hope the next few weeks will provide plenty of opportunities for lamp post watching in the form of blizzards!

Wishful thinking, I know!

Edited February 11, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, Nath said:

In my eyes global warming has virtually killed our chance of ever seeing a 1980s style cold spell ever again.  Perversely it also seems to have killed hot and sunny summers with decent storms too!!!

I see you’re from NW London I don’t have a blinking idea what you’re going on about regards to summer, storms yes I’ve noticed less but in years not long gone running up to last they’ve pretty decent always some hot and sunny weather to enjoy in SE benefiting from close proximity to continental Europe. You can’t expect a summer like 1976. And well nothings been killed we see good winters punctuated by bad winters, it’s always been like this. 

[knocker]

to the

[Mr Frost]

Good morning all

Well the start of another snowy day here and continues through to Tuesday. (screenshots below for my location)

Incredible Winter up here at a modest 65 meters above sea level in my area - December, January and now Febuary have all delivered. 

I will look back at this Winter with a sense of joy and fondness in later months and years - has been fantastic.

Cheers. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Decemberof2010]

Hopefully the trend to push the cold back continues. Then we may have a chance of it landing next winter

[Frosty_wsm]

8 minutes ago, snowice said:

Yes but we have been here before ecm now UKmo Gfs backing away not a good trend! 

Actually no, we haven't been here before so far this winter, unless we've had a major ssw take place that nobody knew about! 

I highly doubt any model has a good handle on how the ssw will play out and as the more knowledgeable posters have said, expect wild swings from the models and that's exactly what we're seeing. 

Edited February 11, 2018 by Smartie

[starstream]

While  March 2013 was not snowy in my neck of the woods, it was savagely cold.

i remember many times walking and having to come home early as the cold wind made my asthma kick off .

the lack of white stuff didn't make it less interesting for me as a coldie.

what was amazing, was when the weather turned into normal spring temps, and the blossom and green almost happened overnight.

it really was special to witness .

[knocker]

The ext EPS mean anomaly this morning continues to retrogress and re-orientate the Canada/Iceland trough to mid Atlantic whilst building the ridge north over the UK. Thus more amplification in the Atlantic arena and portending drier and more settled for the UK.

[eddy88888]

everytime when they say in the mad thread their is a cold spell on the way -10 temps wide spread snow event, they always predict so far out and then oh what a surprise downgrades always happen ecm etc let down, so to stop me getting let down also please just predict a couple of days before you know for sure whats going to happen all this model watching weeks in advance is clearly a waste of time , or just leave it to the met office experts cheers rant over

Edited February 11, 2018 by eddy88888

[Jemma Croton]

1 hour ago, starstream said:

While  March 2013 was not snowy in my neck of the woods, it was savagely cold.

i remember many times walking and having to come home early as the cold wind made my asthma kick off .

the lack of white stuff didn't make it less interesting for me as a coldie.

what was amazing, was when the weather turned into normal spring temps, and the blossom and green almost happened overnight.

it really was special to witness .

Ugh. I forget how mean the cold, dry air is for us asthmatics. I have type 1 Brittle asthma which is nasty but better since I was moved to Symicort turbohaler. It’s an expensive drug so sometimes hard to get prescribed (I had to have a very nasty attack and hospital stay to get it) but it’s really good. Might be an option to help you with the cold.

In regards to the weather for this month, I’m staying irritatingly optimistic. We’ve seen the models get it wrong time and time again and my snow starved self HAS to believe that the ECM has it wrong these past few runs. I need it to be wrong. It’s been one heck of a crappy winter (for other reasons besides weather) and snowmaggedon would be it’s one redeeming quality. So yes, optimistic. 

[A.J]

The simplest tool for accurate weather forecasting.....look at GooFuS FI charts, note the overall theme, then expect the exact opposite....rarely fails....lol 

[snowblizzard]

Some depressing model output for cold lovers this morning.

But, it's very early days regarding the MSSW & reversal.

I recon if nothing encouraging is showing in the models by Wednesday this week then it's probably game over as far as UK is concerned!

Edited February 11, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Number 23]

Beautiful morning here today. Whatever happens over the next couple of weeks at least we'll have Spring knocking on the door. Hope the SSW doesn't have any effect in March. 

[Seasonal Trim]

1 hour ago, eddy88888 said:

everytime when they say in the mad thread their is a cold spell on the way -10 temps wide spread snow event, they always predict so far out and then oh what a surprise downgrades always happen ecm etc let down, so to stop me getting let down also please just predict a couple of days before you know for sure whats going to happen all this model watching weeks in advance is clearly a waste of time , or just leave it to the met office experts cheers rant over

Yep, lets close down the forum. Everybody just visit the Met Office website once a day to see the weather for the next 24 hours. No point in coming here and viewing the models as it's a waste of time! 

Edited February 11, 2018 by Nizzer

[TEITS]

Must admit after spending many years on this forum I am tempted to make some changes for next winter especially if this mornings output is correct.

I am tempted to spend less time viewing the models, ensembles etc. Don't bother reading all these posts about background signals, ignore all LRF's. I shall just simply log on and view the UKMO output and have a glance at the Met O forecast.

I do not mean to be critical of any particular member and what i describe above sounds rather boring. However this method would prove less time consuming, more accurate forecast of the next 5 days, less time being led up the garden path.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

SSW = Stupid Sodding Weather

[snowblizzard]

13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Must admit after spending many years on this forum I am tempted to make some changes for next winter especially if this mornings output is correct.

I am tempted to spend less time viewing the models, ensembles etc. Don't bother reading all these posts about background signals, ignore all LRF's. I shall just simply log on and view the UKMO output and have a glance at the Met O forecast.

I do not mean to be critical of any particular member and what i describe above sounds rather boring. However this method would prove less time consuming, more accurate forecast of the next 5 days, less time being led up the garden path.

That's what I said to myself after last winter TEITS!

But, this year I'm hooked again!

Edited February 11, 2018 by snowblizzard

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s like being on a Russian roulette table with no idea where it will land ?

[Buzz]

A number of childish, uninformed and immature knee-jerk reactions currently in the model output 'discussion' thread. I wish I could say that I was surprised, but ............

[Shunter]

So we line up with a SSW....an Easterly QBO, High amplitude MJO in favourable phase and an almost record breaking Zonal wind reversal......and what do we get.....exactly the same ..strong Polar Vortex and a 200mph Westerly Jetstream.

So where is the justification in all the teleconnective jargon..... no doubt they will find another elusive piece of the atmospheric jigsaw that caused our favourable winter scenario to be sabotaged. No doubt also that the UK tax payer foots the bill for the further development of atmospheric studies.....money that would / should be better spent on building Infrastructure and the NHS. 

  

[Tracy Flick]

13 minutes ago, Shunter said:

So we line up with a SSW....an Easterly QBO, High amplitude MJO in favourable phase and an almost record breaking Zonal wind reversal......and what do we get.....exactly the same ..strong Polar Vortex and a 200mph Westerly Jetstream.

So where is the justification in all the teleconnective jargon..... no doubt they will find another elusive piece of the atmospheric jigsaw that caused our favourable winter scenario to be sabotaged. No doubt also that the UK tax payer foots the bill for the further development of atmospheric studies.....money that would / should be better spent on building Infrastructure and the NHS. 

  

I'm pretty you're blaming the NHS's problems on the wrong people here.  But I guess that's the British way.

[Evening thunder]

1 minute ago, meh said:

 But I guess that's the British way.

Very true

[Seasonal Trim]

25 minutes ago, Shunter said:

So we line up with a SSW....an Easterly QBO, High amplitude MJO in favourable phase and an almost record breaking Zonal wind reversal......and what do we get.....exactly the same ..strong Polar Vortex and a 200mph Westerly Jetstream.

So where is the justification in all the teleconnective jargon..... no doubt they will find another elusive piece of the atmospheric jigsaw that caused our favourable winter scenario to be sabotaged. No doubt also that the UK tax payer foots the bill for the further development of atmospheric studies.....money that would / should be better spent on building Infrastructure and the NHS. 

  

Oh dear.