Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

I'm really getting quite concerned that, if the wind from the east doesn't arrive bearing gifts, we may have another Jonestown on our hands.

[Always a red]

Cup of coffee.....check.......turn laptop on.......check.....

Time to sit back and enjoy another day on the model rollercoaster ride searching out for the golden ticket, especially looking forward to the most informative, unbiased, hidden undertone, witty one liner posts, sarcastic and unhelpful musings that frequent this marvellous forum on a daily basis.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And lo and behold along comes 00z ECM.

Ive learned my lesons, even when ECM looks fabulous at 168 onwards and even with matt taylor /Exeter constantly telling us of very cold east winds and a BIG SSW underway, until its t96 believe NONE of it..

 

I never do, but perhaps of my mild bias, always believe mild and wet

[markyo]

Interesting Points of View on the BBC,folk believe it or not are writing in to complain that Scotland is now shown as it's true landmass on the new graphics. Apparently they don't deserve this as they only have 6% of the population...right so the Chelsea tractor owner poping out to the shops is in need of the weather forecast more than the family in Scotland having to "pop" out 20/30 miles to the local store?? At times i feel ashamed to be English

[knocker]

Interesting ext EPS this morning as it apparently grapples with the retrogression, To accommodate this it re-orientates the Vortex/Iceland trough south in mid Atlantic whilst simultaneously slipping the ridge east be over the UK Thus the Atlantic arena becomes much more amplified. Where will all end I ask myself.

Edited February 10, 2018 by knocker

[John88B]

8 minutes ago, markyo said:

Interesting Points of View on the BBC,folk believe it or not are writing in to complain that Scotland is now shown as it's true landmass on the new graphics. Apparently they don't deserve this as they only have 6% of the population...right so the Chelsea tractor owner poping out to the shops is in need of the weather forecast more than the family in Scotland having to "pop" out 20/30 miles to the local store?? At times i feel ashamed to be English

By these peoples reasoning then the South East should take up half the weather map and sod everyone else!

[snowbunting]

Forecast... March cold and snowy for the east side.

West side.. sunny dry and cold... 

Perfect!

[snowfish1]

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

eps not good, gefs not good (in the majority).

think i know where this is heading....

Tits up?

[Evening thunder]

Tbh, for Northern Ireland, West Scotland, and some of the ROI, Sunday's charts are probably as good as they'd get from a late Feb easterly (unless a rare 'special' one). -9/-10C 850's and lots of snow showers, 0-2C temps between the showers, sub-zero in heaver showers. Wales/NW England might not do too bad at least on hills, and there will probably be some snow showers to low levels even here in the SW.

Regarding the SSW, some runs have been pretty impressive, but then there's runs like the 00Z ECM and its ensembles which are poor. Also I hear the (admittedly ridiculous) BBC 14 day forecasts use a modified form of the EPS. Well I hope not, it's not moved from 8-9C maxima right to the end for me.

I've also seen some strat animations where the small section vortex gets sucked out over N Europe towards Greenland (to join the Canadian vortex centred slightly west of Greenland).. possible fly in the ointment? I wonder how the 00z ECM models it.  

Then there's Tamera's post last night. If that realism proves to be wise, it seems the teleconnections are just as bad as the models in that they usually find something to go wrong. Anyway, how a low decides to behave upstream often seems to dictate how the pattern evolves (case in point the ECM)

I'm trying not to get sucked in too much. Time to just follow the weather normally. If something does happen, then nice.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Evening thunder

[markyo]

26 minutes ago, John88B said:

By these peoples reasoning then the South East should take up half the weather map and sod everyone else!

Yep,sadly certain folk haven't the brains they were born with i'm afraid.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

And lo and behold along comes 00z ECM.

Ive learned my lesons, even when ECM looks fabulous at 168 onwards and even with matt taylor /Exeter constantly telling us of very cold east winds and a BIG SSW underway, until its t96 believe NONE of it..

 

Like most humans you chose only to remember what you wanted to hear.. like the words 'small chance'. Being on here should have also told you that beyond a week there is no guarantee of anything and large swings can be seen.

...

Although i must admit that i was getting on board with the easterly solution it looks like my prior thoughts remain, namely that for anything of substance to occur we probably need the Canadian vortex to shift across to Scandinavia as it looks as though at closer range it puts too much pressure on any block. This may take a bit longer although the Euro attempts this somewhat at day 10. 

Mildly optimistic but cautious. 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Like most humans you chose only to remember what you wanted to hear.. like the words 'small chance'. Being on here should have also told you that beyond a week there is no guarantee of anything and large swings can be seen.

...

Although i must admit that i was getting on board with the easterly solution it looks like my prior thoughts remain, namely that for anything of substance to occur we probably need the Canadian vortex to shift across to Scandinavia as it looks as though at closer range it puts too much pressure on any block. This may take a bit longer although the Euro attempts this somewhat at day 10. 

Mildly optimistic but cautious. 

fair post SB

think exeter have been banging the drum for a cold easterly for a while,think im just programmed for downgrades tbh,maybe its just me but all the eye candy ever seems to get is downgraded as we approach landing.

 

[Tracy Flick]

For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

[Shunter]

40 minutes ago, meh said:

For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

I doubt it, balmy Southerlies more like 

[DAVID SNOW]

56 minutes ago, meh said:

For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

As likely as anything else.

I think this mornings GFS 06 run is the likely outcome, cold to the end of Feb, and (imo) early March will bring the chance of some 'real' cold from the east, not before.

[SLEETY]

Ecm up to its old tricks again I see ,two cold runs than a much less cold run,seems to have been doing that all winter.

dont believe any mega cold Easterly  will verify until it is still showing at t72 

credibility of some experts in this forum and some of the professional weather outlets,are going to go out the window if this mega cold spell fails to materialise,I mean they have going on and on about this SSW event for what feels like forever.

 

Good luck guys,prepare for flack if it goes balls up 

[DAVID SNOW]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm up to its old tricks again I see ,two cold runs than a much less cold run,seems to have been doing that all winter.

dont believe any mega cold Easterly  will verify until it is still showing at t72 

credibility of some experts in this forum and some of the professional weather outlets,are going to go out the window if this mega cold spell fails to materialise,I mean they have going on and on about this SSW event for what feels like forever.

 

Good luck guys,prepare for flack if it goes balls up 

I don't remember reading on here, from the 'experts' as you call them, that a "Mega cold spell"  was guaranteed to impact the UK??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thing that also downgrades is high pressure and settled dry weather, when showing in FI, high pressure near us mild or cold, is becoming rarer too in the modern erah

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I don't remember reading on here, from the 'experts' as you call them, that a "Mega cold spell"  was guaranteed to impact the UK??

certain posters have been going on about an easterly outbreak all winter and all we have had is one pathetic attempt this week,you obviously don't frequent this forum much,if you don't know that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm up to its old tricks again I see ,two cold runs than a much less cold run,seems to have been doing that all winter.

dont believe any mega cold Easterly  will verify until it is still showing at t72 

credibility of some experts in this forum and some of the professional weather outlets,are going to go out the window if this mega cold spell fails to materialise,I mean they have going on and on about this SSW event for what feels like forever.

 

Good luck guys,prepare for flack if it goes balls up 

think some of them, try to gain popularity, and get 'like' rating up, even when they're wrong!

[knocker]

Surely not the possibility of south easterly zephyrs? It doesn't bear thinking about

 

[saintkip]

Ha. First time in years we have winter weather coming from the east and its warmer than the west.

[Mildcarlisle]

Anyone else share my view that since the SSW was forecast,the model thread has become the Fantasy Island thread? I understand the anticipation and excitement of the SSW and the 'potential' ramifications thereafter but almost all output being shown and discussed is all in F1.I hope we do get the protracted cold easterly and dreams sometimes come true but for now they are dreams even at a point of cross model agreement on day 10.

[chapmanslade]

I would recommend the Met Office open days - especially to the armchair met office bashers who think the MO don't know what they are doing. Just been to the one today and it was a fascinating tour of some wonderful facilities and all of it FOC. It takes about 3 hours with a little bit of history, the brilliant MO Library, as well as a presentation by a forecaster on the process of creating a forecast. The library is open to the public but you do need to let them know if you want to visit for security reasons - that in itself is worth a visit.

[starstream]

Whatever happens in The forthcoming weeks.

feed the birds guys and gals.

if winter prolongs, they really will need a bit of extra support, and into spring when they are frantically nesting, laying and feeding offspring.