Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[daz_4]

Sure, ECM is better, but ground conditions on the latest run are not wintry at all. It seems to me that any noteworthy cold is at least 12 days away. If it even comes.

[Methuselah]

Not only has yesterday's Day 10 not becomes today's Day 9, it's disappeared altogether...We'll have to make do with whatever comes in from the W & NW, I suspect?

[snowblizzard]

Patience is a virtue, keep it if you can!

SSW and reversal is only just getting underway, it will take a while before we'll see more clearly what might develop around UK

Models couldn't possibly have a handle on this yet!

I recon by Wednesday next week we should know whether anything will fall in our favour or not.

Having said that, my gut feeling is that UK will probably miss out on any notable cold/snow event!

It's just the percentages game.

Edited February 9, 2018 by snowblizzard

[mountain shadow]

58 minutes ago, Shunter said:

 

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right.........so a further 4 days on ????  Still the same ! 

 

Surely the Jet should be responding to Easterly Zonal wind influences ( if indeed they ever arrive ) ?

 

 

That's still only 4 days after and you could argue the jet is responding, it's on s SE track into Europe as opposed to ploughing through into Scandi.

Give it time

[knocker]

I notice Mark Twain quotes are in vogue this morning, perhaps

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.

[davehsug]

50 minutes ago, knocker said:

I notice Mark Twain quotes are in vogue this morning, perhaps

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.

And from the PV "The reports of my death are somewhat exaggerated"!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

both models good in FI, but been here many times, never be like this spell, 48 hours continuous snow, still remember it

[knocker]

It doesn't bear thinking about what if the low at the ecm day 10 slipped a tad south and warm air was advected over the UK from south east Europe?

Edited February 9, 2018 by knocker

[Chevron12345]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

It doesn't bear thinking about what if the low at the ecm day 10 slipped a tad south and warm air was advected over the UK from south east Europe?

No no..not an outcome that could ever be considered!! 

[Mucka]

Talking of "Boom" charts, thought this was pretty cool.

 

[Snowy L]

Dont mind a delayed spring as long as its proper cold and snow delaying it. March and April are overrated anyway. Average highs are 8-14c, still nowhere near warm enough to be comfortable.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Dont mind a delayed spring as long as its proper cold and snow delaying it. March and April are overrated anyway. Average highs are 8-14c, still nowhere near warm enough to be comfortable.

me too, March 2013 is what we want, if not then hope for 20°C

Edited February 9, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Mokidugway]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Talking of "Boom" charts, thought this was pretty cool.

 

Just goes to show that old Elon has no bother getting it up .........

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I think it's reasonable to say that there are considerable similarities between these two February charts which are only a couple of days apart:

ECM.      

GFS       

and this one too:

               

Just check out the date of that last chart  

That's just a bit too close for comfort!  Not saying the Thames will freeze over or anything, but if the balls all end up in the right pockets we will certainly need to dig out those thermals....

Hmmmmm, UK was frozen for 6 weeks by then...  hey let’s be optimistic....we could freeze until April relatively speaking.  Not outlandish imo

Ok I bid you good night and possibly for a while....I’ll look in.   On a note of previous recent spats and what TEITS posted re his fight and importance of cold. Dave chuffed you pulled through mate, great news.  Guys and girls weather is passionate but not worth really having aggro over.  It really isn’t....but keep passion...that is important.

I have to empty my dad’s house this weekend in Swansea and next week as council want it back.  No sympathy...I get that entirely but I’ll be distracted.  Speak soon...and hopefully next weekend my trip back to Redhill will be long due to SNOW!!

best regards

Fred aka BFTP

Edited February 9, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[knocker]

Looking good

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Looking good

all i say   knocker if the bbc right things could get interesting next week!!!

[tinybill]

cant wait to wake  up to the pub run in the  morning!!!

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Dont mind a delayed spring as long as its proper cold and snow delaying it. March and April are overrated anyway. Average highs are 8-14c, still nowhere near warm enough to be comfortable.

I beg to differ. I'm in t-shirts at 12c...

[comet]

GFS has made a complete dogs dinner of it again lol not that this run bothers me in the slightest. looking forward to the mornings runs. cheers.

 

[MP-R]

18Z GFS is pure trash, ending with a Spanish plume lol. 

Don't mind cold weather lasting into March (first half at least) as long as it actually delivers something other than grey skies and 1-2C diurnal ranges. An easterly would have to be of the more unusual sorts to do that, hence why I a northerly would be much more inviting 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 all had good examples.

[northwestsnow]

whats the odds it goes belly up and 18z is near the mark..

I would hardly be suprised, infact , i'd be very suprised if its not another wild goose chase, even with plenty of pieces in the jigsaw  in place  nowadays it just needs one to fall out of the place and voila- 18zGFS.

Potent north westerly on sunday with 515 DAM here and matt taylor talking of temps of 5degrees in manchester- its not even mid Feb and we are talking 5deg with uppers of -9,  30 years ago i'd have said maxima of 2 or 3 , the games changed, which explains why snow is becoming rarer and rarer.

[markw2680]

48 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I beg to differ. I'm in t-shirts at 12c...

Another couple of degrees for me. Think 14c is the magic number for me

[northwestsnow]

eps not good, gefs not good (in the majority).

think i know where this is heading....

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s looking dodgy at the moment, hoping it’s been on the vodka!

[northwestsnow]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

eps not good, gefs not good (in the majority).

think i know where this is heading....

And lo and behold along comes 00z ECM.

Ive learned my lesons, even when ECM looks fabulous at 168 onwards and even with matt taylor /Exeter constantly telling us of very cold east winds and a BIG SSW underway, until its t96 believe NONE of it..

 

Edited February 10, 2018 by northwestsnow