Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[DanDorsetUK]

So where's all the snow and bitter weather promised last week in the model thread? Worst cold spell for years was mentioned and heavy snowfall. Lol that's what happens when you look at computer generated weather. 

[knocker]

With the transition in the medium term already being signposted by the outputs I would have thought it wise just to note det, output post, say, day 7, and watch with interest. For example the ecm this morning had a lobe of the trop vortex to the NW of the UK which initiated WAA northbound to the east. Fascinating evolution to observe particularly if you set off with an open mind. For God's sake knocker what are saying,get a grip.

Oh and it's snowing down here.

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Winter is over...nit that it ever really started down here.

 

At least the sun is shining the past 4 days and it feels like winter.

But lets face it a UK wide cold spell with memorable snow just isnt gonna happen for the vast majority of us.

Roll on Spring...this is going to be my last post this "winter" 2017/2018 the 5th snowless winter in a row IMBY.

Charts are as useful as the preverbial chocolate teapot along with every single "long range forecast" i have seen this winter and i include medium term in that as well.

 

Seems that despite all the data and all the sciene nobody really has a scooby doo.

 

Either that or global weather patterns really are being manipulated by mankind...in which case we.might just as well all give up and find another hobby/interest.

 

Bye bye

totally agree.

Think we ve had around 4 or 5 days of lying snow since late November, for a location in the north with 200m altitude im sorry but its pathetic.

The only good thing is it has not been as wet as the last 2 'winters'.

We maywell get northern blocking on the back of this SSW late Feb into march but for me im not interested in late feb /march- unless you get really low uppers the sun will go to work on any snow anyway, just a waste of time foR ME.

Mid Nov to mid Feb has always been my prime time for winter, and we are now at the point were we can fairly safely say there isn't going to be a freeze this side of mid Feb.

Its my last post wrt winter 2018 and i will give it a score of 3/10 - in other words, rubbish, the PV has sat over to our North west from pretty much start to finish and completely dominated, yet another winter with ZERO blocking over Greenland, how many more before we just accept that things have changed, for how long who knows?

From my POV unless we see a SSW in either Nov/Dec or jan winter is going to be pants, i really dont need to be on £100000 a year to know that.

 

[Froze were the Days]

Just had a quick glimpse at the models...and if cold zonality is your thing then you'll be happy, anything from the east or true cold (really not sure it's going to happen this winter) looks a distance off...

[snowblizzard]

16 minutes ago, moffatross said:

Snow is falling and lying again this morning and it's already been a notable winter for snow and cold with temperatures routinely dropping below -5C, occasionally -10C and below. The snow on the ground day count is certainly the best out of the last 5 years and greatest snow depths here have been around 10-12 inches which is not too shabby for just 145m ASL.

To the near future, the 10 day ECM operationals are modelling hit after hit of PM frontal ppn, and the GFS ensembles for 850 height are projecting the next 16 days at 3-5 C below the long term climate average. It's an extraordinary outlook on an already unusually wintry season and the Met office analysis for nest 30 days is both fascinating and mouthwatering.

Yep, it's been pretty good so far for some of you guys North of the border, especially those with reasonable altitude.

Met Office analysis and outlook is for colder than average February but that doesn't mean severe cold & snowy weather for majority of UK

I think their thoughts are likely to change fairly soon!

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just had a quick glimpse at the models...and if cold zonality is your thing then you'll be happy, anything from the east or true cold (really not sure it's going to happen this winter) looks a distance off...

yes, what I reckon too, February not much snow this year low levels South, rest of Feb looking very snowy high levels North/Scotland, but fairly average for the South, GFS and EC looking zonal really

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes, what I reckon too, February not much snow this year low levels South, rest of Feb looking very snowy high levels North/Scotland, but fairly average for the South, GFS and EC looking zonal really

Cold zonality largely the theme of the winter...particularly from the New Year, but down south we know this translates into near normal temperatures followed by mild anomalies (Tm air) hence why in my back yard we had a +6c January. All very disappointing.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Cold zonality largely the theme of the winter...particularly from the New Year, but down south we know this translates into near normal temperatures followed by mild anomalies (Tm air) hence why in my back yard we had a +6c January. All very disappointing.

'cold zonal ' didnt even deliver here in the north west either- only thing that can produce for me is easterly or north easterly.

I suspect the warming ocean has made cold zonality a bust even at 200m in the north west-unless the uppers are -8/9 its a waste of time, and i can count on 1 hand the number of times we have had those types of uppers on a north westerly over recent years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

'cold zonal ' didnt even deliver here in the north west either- only thing that can produce for me is easterly or north easterly.

I suspect the warming ocean has made cold zonality a bust even at 200m in the north west-unless the uppers are -8/9 its a waste of time, and i can count on 1 hand the number of times we have had those types of uppers on a north westerly over recent years.

-10 uppers needed here off convective W or NW'ly,  for proper decent snaw just never gets that low

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

-10 uppers needed here off convective W or NW'ly,  for proper decent snaw just never gets that low

Not far off that needed here too- the Atlantic is warmer, and its tipped North westerlies on the wrong side of marginal for me, i recall the mid 80's, most likely Jan 84 as a young lad watching snow shower after snow shower pile in from the north west one night, i was that excited i couldn't sleep properly

I woke up to the familiar sound of my dad with his shovel, digging out the drive to get the car out for work.

Best snow showers always came from the east/north east though, living at 230m as a kid i remember watching the hills around saddleworth disappear as the next shower swept in, that was a common theme from 79-87

Edited February 6, 2018 by northwestsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not far off that needed here too- the Atlantic is warmer, and its tipped North westerlies on the wrong side of marginal for me, i recall the mid 80's, most likely Jan 84 as a young lad watching snow shower after snow shower pile in from the north west one night, i was that excited i couldn't sleep properly

I woke up to the familiar sound of my dad with his shovel, digging out the drive to get the car out for work.

the days were so good!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

the days were so good!

They were fabulous, not sure if this is turning into a moan or a childhood ramp

Guess  i was lucky to see some really cold winters in my younger days, the memories are great, but in a paradoxical kind of way its bitter/sweet, Retron did a piece on TWO  about the death of the mid winter easterly a while ago, think they will still happen, but lets be blunt, they are becoming as rare as rocking horse poo, and its no coincidence the south esp, have seen little or no lying snow for years..

[moffatross]

47 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Yep, it's been pretty good so far for some of you guys North of the border, especially those with reasonable altitude.

Met Office analysis and outlook is for colder than average February but that doesn't mean severe cold & snowy weather for majority of UK

I think their thoughts are likely to change fairly soon!

 

The Met Office 30 day thoughts will change if their material evidence changes and so far they've been rather steadfast with the wording for their 2-4 week projection ...

"Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal."

I has barely differed for a good few days. I don't usually do too well out of an easterly but I still enjoy its prospect and surprise snowfall element anyway.

On another note, someone in this thread said that -10C @ 850 hPa or below is needed for PM showers to deliver snow even at 200m ASL in the NW English Midlands (Manchester/Oldham etc), which surprised me as we've not seen uppers that cold yet this winter. All our low level cold has been in darkness when snow has been lying, and it's surprising how air temperature can drop from freezing to -10C or below in the space of just an hour or so when the uppers are only -6 or -7.

Edited February 6, 2018 by moffatross

[snowblizzard]

Amazing to think that in just 4 weeks time we could be experiencing blue skies, bright sunshine and temperatures around 21c in SE England.

I think it was around 12th March 2014 this happened (weekend before Cheltenham Festival)

On the other hand, 12th March 2013 temperatures were around -2c and we had 4 inches of powder snow.

UK weather!

[stevofunnelcl]

Slightly take back, my previous post, there is light snow falling out there... but not settling

Shame it's not an active weather front, and not some weak little thing

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Hope it snows on the weekend of 17/18th February as I can’t run in the Wokingham Half marathon due to injury ?

[Jemma Croton]

As far as I can tell many (who know more than I) are expecting a very FTR. Dr Amy (Butler) posted yesterday (I think) on twitter showing a FTR of just 3 days from the SSW event. It’s worth bearing in mind when looking at the charts as clearly the MetO are picking this up as exceptionally fast (Fergie RT Dr AB post which just adds more weight to it in my eyes) right now and I’m not sure how well the models will handle things happening quite so quickly.

It’s certainly looking like a very exciting period of model watching continues and it’s great to see that despite downgrades happening and things today not giving us what was expected towards the end of last week, the models continue to keep giving us a reason to keep our eyes on the charts and that flicker of hope alive for those of us that live for this time of year.

I’m dreading spring. Don’t get me wrong, I love spring as a season. Everyday is a nature school day for the children and having the garden to get invested in and plants for them to grow is most welcome after the winter months. But doing all this, checking each run and poring over them 4 times a day gives me so much focus for my overactive mind and I really miss it when it’s gone. Tried getting into model watching at other times of year but it just doesn’t interest me.

So I’m extremely happy to continue having these excitIng Synoptics continue to feature for the foreseeable future. 

[Met4Cast]

12 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

I’m dreading spring. Don’t get me wrong, I love spring as a season. Everyday is a nature school day for the children and having the garden to get invested in and plants for them to grow is most welcome after the winter months. But doing all this, checking each run and poring over them 4 times a day gives me so much focus for my overactive mind and I really miss it when it’s gone. Tried getting into model watching at other times of year but it just doesn’t interest me.

So I’m extremely happy to continue having these excitIng Synoptics continue to feature for the foreseeable future. 

I'm exactly the same - In winter when there's something of interest going on (like right now) I'll watch as many model runs frame by frame as they roll out as I can, and it's usually the first thing I check after getting home from work too. It's weird to everyone else, I guess and I tend not to go around telling people I need to go home because the GFS is rolling out.

Summer brings the risk of thunderstorms so that can be fun to watch too, but it's never quite the same. The GFS 06z ensembles are an improvement in the long range with many members going cold, though there is a lot of scatter. 

The trend has been towards something more blocked within the model suites in the last couple of days, pretty much in-line with what we're expecting.

[knocker]

Definite continuing signs of the vortex/Iceland trough in decline on the 06 ext GEFS anomaly with the Azores HP becoming more influential over the UK. Could portend a quiet dry spell. Lovely jubbly

[knocker]

Only just had a chance to look at the latest EC46 and although it is showing the transition there does not appear to be anything particularly nasty lurking in the woodshed, albeit keeping in mind the volatility that is likely. Still one must keep positive and look on the bright side. Temps below average in NW Europe for February and warming in North America once rid of the vortex.

[knocker]

As Maurice would say, "I remember it well"

 

[DOdo]

As expected this Polar Maritime event was just a damp squib. It did snow, but as usual lasted the grand total of 2 hours (Light snow fall),  the mear fact that we got some snow I suppose we should be grateful  for small blessings

[sparky1972]

Well i guess this is as good as it get, we are now nearing the end of day one of our 2 day prolonged cold spell, really cant wait for the atlantic to come rolling in from thursday, with rain and temps recovering back up to 8/9c, this winter has been another one to forget from an imby point of view.

[sausage]

gosh this model output is draining. going to be march at this rate. easterlies dont wrk in march due to north sea temps. i remember that from march 13. Just cant get excited about anything. all this met office talk of systems running into uk producing snow. erm im not seeing this at all!! this week really was over ramped probably also why steve murrs gone so quiet!!come on models for once give us something amazing, not good, something mouth watering. a few days of easterly prolonged heavy natiomwide snow showers will do!!

[James1979]

It's been very seasonal as far as I'm concerned imby and even with a smattering of early season snow so a nice change but sadly it is another quite snowless year over all for most- how many more years of it before it's beyond being classed as a phase? Hopefully it is just that but I think not based purely on my own observations and nothing more scientific. Same can be said for the decline of storms in summer. 

Looking forward to Spring now after the latest let down model wise. Least I wasn't reeled in like I used to be back in the day. 

 

Enjoy your flurries those that get them.