Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stevofunnelcl]

snow-ma-geddon, has now turned into a nothing burger

The fizzling front, will bring patchy drizzle tomorrow morning.

Max of 8c by Thursday, and again Sat / Sun - with some light rain around

Hardly, a very wintry themed week

Makes Daily Express style headlines, of 'killer cold' - OMG - it's beyond a joke

Edited February 5, 2018 by stevofunnelcl

[knocker]

The latter stages of the GEFS anomalies this evening are still indicating a weakening Canadian vortex and ridging in mid Atlantic with positive anomalies from there across Greenland the the weakening east European ridge. All a tad amorphous

[knocker]

February 5th 1978

Edited February 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

The latter stages of the GEFS anomalies this evening are still indicating a weakening Canadian vortex and ridging in mid Atlantic with positive anomalies from there across Greenland the the weakening east European ridge. All a tad amorphous

Something quite similar at the end of the ext EPS. Oh my giddy aunt

[cheeky_monkey]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

February 5th 1978

looks like Edmonton Saturday morning

[paddydog]

2 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

snow-ma-geddon, has now turned into a nothing burger

The fizzling front, will bring patchy drizzle tomorrow morning.

Max of 8c by Thursday, and again Sat / Sun - with some light rain around

Hardly, a very wintry themed week

Makes Daily Express style headlines, of 'killer cold' - OMG - it's beyond a joke

The forecasts for most of the country seem to show freezing conditions and some snow. I don't understand how that is likely to to become drizzle. Can you explain please? 

[sparky1972]

this cold spell is really going to be something,  NOT.  really looking forward to the rain on thursday and saturday, lol

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

36 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

this cold spell is really going to be something,  NOT.  really looking forward to the rain on thursday and saturday, lol

 

Yes, not really a cold shot here, over by Thursday, every Feb we seem to get rumours of a SSW, then a 6 week delay for it to affect us, if it does, I'm confident it will this year, in April, easterlies and Northerlies to dominate April/May

[Hammer50]

Why not put the money they waste on forecasting the weather into the NHS as they never get it right in the old days I mean before the car you just woke up and dealt with what the day brought .

[davehsug]

42 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

Why not put the money they waste on forecasting the weather into the NHS as they never get it right in the old days I mean before the car you just woke up and dealt with what the day brought .

And you're on a weather site because?

[northwestsnow]

Really disappointed with the models again today.

Just wish that PV would get lost..its ruined another winter..

[snowflakey]

Just seen BBC weather forecast, and Tom Schafernaker ended with a knowing wink, and said make sure you see the forecast tomorrow.  I'm intrigued. 

[abruzzi spur]

Just now, snowflakey said:

Just seen BBC weather forecast, and Tom Schafernaker ended with a knowing wink, and said make sure you see the forecast tomorrow.  I'm intrigued. 

New graphics I suspect

[snowflakey]

2 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

New graphics I suspect

Thanks abruuzzi

Nothing to get to excited about then.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, snowflakey said:

Thanks abruuzzi

Nothing to get to excited about then.

I don’t believe so that will roll out in March so I believe only app/website is undergoing change atm.

[davehsug]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Something quite similar at the end of the ext EPS. Oh my giddy aunt

You're not heading for the dark side are you Knocker?

[Tracy Flick]

1 hour ago, Hammer50 said:

Why not put the money they waste on forecasting the weather into the NHS as they never get it right in the old days I mean before the car you just woke up and dealt with what the day brought .

The increase in the number of pensioners with broken bones would cost the NHS more than the extra money it would get.  Ice warnings etc are a big deal for the frail, even if not so much for the rest of us.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

2 hours ago, Hammer50 said:

Why not put the money they waste on forecasting the weather into the NHS as they never get it right in the old days I mean before the car you just woke up and dealt with what the day brought .

And after the car you just woke up and dealt with what the day brought ? 

[northwestsnow]

Poor gfs00z again.

Either we got another milder run or this vortex is going to go down kicking and screaming eating away at what little of winter we have left.

[knocker]

5 hours ago, davehsug said:

You're not heading for the dark side are you Knocker?

Certainly not Dave, but you know me , a stickler for accuracy and the truth.

[lassie23]

is there an SSW event taking place? If so, then I think the models are going to spew out more garbage than they usually do.

[snowblizzard]

Some were saying the block of cold air that has developed to the East would be too strong and would hold back the Atlantic.

But, as usual, the Atlantic influence is dominating UK weather and our cold is gradually being mixed-out!

I don't see any real evidence of a strong and favourably positioned Scandinavian high developing anytime soon. 

We are seriously running out of time now, the sun is gaining strength and daylight hours are longer.

Last chance saloon, but it looks like we'll just have to accept that this will be another winter without notable cold and snow!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by snowblizzard

[northwestsnow]

Sorry to say EC is also poor, think either-

a) the models haven't got a clue

OR 

b) Exter will have to revisit this cold Feb they have been going on about for days,because EC goes past mid month and we are  STILL looking at the ruddy vortex dictating the weather.

[EML Network]

Winter is over...nit that it ever really started down here.

 

At least the sun is shining the past 4 days and it feels like winter.

But lets face it a UK wide cold spell with memorable snow just isnt gonna happen for the vast majority of us.

Roll on Spring...this is going to be my last post this "winter" 2017/2018 the 5th snowless winter in a row IMBY.

Charts are as useful as the preverbial chocolate teapot along with every single "long range forecast" i have seen this winter and i include medium term in that as well.

 

Seems that despite all the data and all the sciene nobody really has a scooby doo.

 

Either that or global weather patterns really are being manipulated by mankind...in which case we.might just as well all give up and find another hobby/interest.

 

Bye bye

[moffatross]

Snow is falling and lying again this morning and it's already been a notable winter for snow and cold with temperatures routinely dropping below -5C, occasionally -10C and below. The snow on the ground day count is certainly the best out of the last 5 years and greatest snow depths here have been around 10-12 inches which is not too shabby for just 145m ASL.

To the near future, the 10 day ECM operationals are modelling hit after hit of PM frontal ppn, and the GFS ensembles for 850 height are projecting the next 16 days at 3-5 C below the long term climate average. It's an extraordinary outlook on an already unusually wintry season and the Met office analysis for nest 30 days is both fascinating and mouthwatering.