Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[davehsug]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Pending!

Ah well, I remember when these warming things used to take 4-6 weeks to not have any effect, I suppose everything's quicker these days.

[shotski]

20 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

The models may continually change output but it’s the same old moaning Minnie’s in here. Every day, without fail, whining. Would be nice if, for once, we could actually just try to enjoy what’s coming and not drag the whole world down in a sea of misery. It looks like a reasonable chance of many areas seeing at least snow showers with the longer range MetO outlook going for cold. 

Haha, you’ll also find the same members in here in the summer doing exactly the same with any proposed warm & sunny weather. Best just to ignore them ??

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Ah well, I remember when these warming things used to take 4-6 weeks to not have any effect, I suppose everything's quicker these days.

Indeed and as a side issue I think it quite likely the ecm will be suspended sine die this morning.

[northwestsnow]

Yes ECmis much better than ukmo this morning.

UKMO is just plain horrid.

Hopefully EC will lead the wa y

[knocker]

Surely not like this

[davehsug]

44 minutes ago, knocker said:

Indeed and as a side issue I think it quite likely the ecm will be suspended sine die this morning.

"LOCK IT UP!"

[stainesbloke]

53 minutes ago, shotski said:

Haha, you’ll also find the same members in here in the summer doing exactly the same with any proposed warm & sunny weather. Best just to ignore them ??

That’s true. Hopefully we’ll see some warm and sunny weather this summer! Quite a few on here that moan endlessly about that, too, bizarrely.

[Evening thunder]

Well the GFS has been nice to look at, in how it held back the fronts on Thursday and the weekend for longer, bringing colder nights (the coldest of this spell Wednesday night) and then a lot more frosts with high pressure over us (followed by an easterly on one run..)

However with how the ECM and UKMO didn't even move towards it, it couldn't be believed. It's kind of odd how the GFS did that and shows why it's 3rd place in the verification stats.

UKMO Wednesday night:


Met Office forecast now has cloud coming in on Wednesday, and +9C with rain on Thursday for me. Even more of a 'standard winter cold snap' than some were castrated for suggesting in the other thread then lol.

Still, -4C here now and a couple nice frosts coming

[RJBingham]

MOD thread

[davehsug]

16 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

MOD thread

I'm sure there are lots of posts, you just won't see them until some unspecified time in the future, when they might appear here or somewhere else entirely or maybe not at all. But they do exist!

Edited February 5, 2018 by davehsug

[snow freak]

I can't quite understand those who say this winter is really interesting especially with the model watching.  Apart from December's snowfall event (which lasted for all of 2 days lying snow...wow), this winter has been a real let down especially as it was forecast to be colder and snowier than the past few winters.  Personally I have seen very little in the way of frosts and as I said, apart from December we have only seen one other snow event the whole winter.  I know people will say, well that is what our winters are like on this little island, but if a few frosts and one or two snow events equals a 'good' winter then I would rather have neither and just stop getting my hopes up when the models predict a good cold spell only for it to back down at the last minute and we end up getting the usual predictable cold damp grey weather we are all to familiar with.

[snow freak]

4 hours ago, shotski said:

Haha, you’ll also find the same members in here in the summer doing exactly the same with any proposed warm & sunny weather. Best just to ignore them ??

But this is the 'moans' page so why are you so surprised?

 

[shotski]

48 minutes ago, snow freak said:

But this is the 'moans' page so why are you so surprised?

 

I’m not

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Got the cold in but no signs of any amber warnings from Exeter. Roll on the SSW!

[Due South]

Can someone point me in the direction; What effects would a El Nino Modoki Winter mean for the UK??  Thanks

[stewfox]

All to play for T384 looks promising

8 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I can't really find the words to describe the GFS/UKMO this morning so i'll settle for the  emotion.

 

GFS needs to deliver , waiting for 12Z to roll out

[Number 23]

I have a feeling this afternoon's runs will be crucial if we are to discover that the models are all over the place, and about to smell the coffee. Still twelve months of winter left. Eyes down.

Seriously though, it's been exhausting following the output this season. Like spending a long weekend with your drunk unpredictable uncle, who promises great things each morning but then falls asleep in the chair, farts and forgets to put the dinner on.

If only Uncle Bart wasn't busy; boring, but at least you knew you were never going to the circus in the first place.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Thames streamer in full force ?

[Number 23]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Thames streamer in full force ?

Looks like Sheerness took a pasting, hope they're coping OK.

[knocker]

Sidney is smelling the coffee

[EMids WeatherWatcher]

1 hour ago, Due South said:

Can someone point me in the direction; What effects would a El Nino Modoki Winter mean for the UK??  Thanks

Same s***e as usual in this country!

[Rammie]

16 minutes ago, EMids WeatherWatcher said:

Same s***e as usual in this country!

Only posting, cos I love your pic 

[sparky1972]

so the cold spell is going to last 2 days for here according to the met and bbc forecasts, whooppeeee, glad i got excited for that, lol, although wednesday is looking sunny but cold, a perfect day to be outside walking the dog, oh please can we have some warm spring weather now as this winter at least for here has been another close but no cigar kind of winter if its snow your after, lol

[Froze were the Days]

So the media banging on about 'coldest week of the winter' will probably not be correct  as I should think the snap/spell in mid-December will be colder plus by Thursday up to 9c in the south east...so that's 3/4 days by my reckoning. Pretty poor...

[Snow Grain]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Really like the nw  /  se  jet profile on the ukmo 12z @ T+144 hours which screams wintry reload after reload with snow showers, ice and frosts, even some frontal and back edge snow at times too!

Great if it’s showers, mostly of rain wanted! Hopefully we see something coming from the east soon, which is the direction that delivers true winter conditions.