Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[sparky1972]

morning all, from an IMBY  point of view, the met office and bbc forecast for the whole of next week are very uninspiring from a cold and snowy point, today was forecast to be dry, now we have rain all day, lowest temp is on tuesday and thats only 4c so chilly yes, cold, not really, here is hoping for a snowy upgrade over the weekend but hunch says not going to happen.

[Jason M]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Winter has been shocking in a lot of places. Bar the spell in early December it has been shocking here for sure.

Going 4-5 years without lying snow for more than a few hrs in January should be pretty much unheard of. However it has become the new norm. Absoloutely dire.

No problem. Just send Jeremy corbyn an email and I'm sure he will add a commitment to make it snow every January to his next manifesto. After all, he's promised everybody else everything they could ever want so why should NW members miss out and this would be more easily deliverable than his other promises.

Joking aside though it does seem odd that we can't sustain heights to our NE anymore even when logically conditions look favourable. 

people are expecting an easterly mid month but I don't see it myself. It's been a poor winter and by rights its should have been even worse as I actually think we have been very lucky to benefit as much as we did from some pretty lacklustre Synoptics ( this week being a good example).

 

Edited February 3, 2018 by Jason M

[Evening thunder]

Now that's kinda bad compared to what was shown before.. ECM and UKMO downgraded to bring in milder air on Wednesday night, Still in the mild sector Thurs night too.That just leaves a few cold days and only Monday night to get any interesting lows here but cloud from Tuesdays system could stop that.. and yep, just looked and the ECM does exactly that (no snow though), temps down temps down to -2C which rise again by dawn. really exciting!  

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Exeter/long.html

At any rate, milder air will be in by the weekend probably giving yet another grotty Saturday. Who knows, If tomorrow fails to give decent sun, next weekend could be the 5th weekend in a row with barely any sun here! and I'll only have the slither of light before/after work to enjoy any of the cold spell.

Does look like a 'standard winter cold snap', i.e a few sharp frosts for some and a bit of sleet/snow around for a few days. That was always possible (though you weren't allowed to say that in the MOD thread recently, or that it might be mostly dry).
Although it's definitely better than nothing, I'll look forward to a few frosts if we manage any decent ones here  and seasonal days.

ECM etc wants to set up the PV over Greenland-Iceland so how long will it take to get to something from there? 

Beyond that who knows, we might from the MJO and strat influence, but one thing I've learnt over the years is that FI is FI, no excuses.

[Rammie]

So it's now a two day cool spell?? 

[SLEETY]

Yeah basically,forecasted temps of between 4-6c are nothing like cold lol.

A cold spell would be max temps of about 1-2c with lying snow too,anyway let’s see what actually happens 

 

 

 

[mulzy]

The only day of interest I see is Tuesday with that decaying front - that's out best hope.

Temperatures progged at 3-5C is an issue - we often get lower than that in a misty/foggy inversion!

Mid-month onwards could be much better - let's see...

Edited February 3, 2018 by mulzy

[Buzz]

3 hours ago, Spikey M said:

I think I’m going to stop visiting here so much. I’m not going to flounce off in a strop with talk of never returning, but for the past god knows how many years the Mod thread has been serving up the sort of dramatic crap that the Daily Express would be proud of. Taking only the most extreme output and running with it as if the majority don’t show something more mundane, then consigning the model to the bin when it doesn’t follow through 3 or 4 days beforehand. 

Rinse and repeat.

I think I’ll stick with some of the more seasoned posters (and ex-posters) on Twitter and leave the rest of you to it.

Do what I do - stick all of the drama queens into your Ignore list. It means that your ignore list is huge but you do at least then only see the sensible posts from the likes of johnholmes, Tamara, Nick F, and so on.

[Rammie]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah basically,forecasted temps of between 4-6c are nothing like cold lol.

A cold spell would be max temps of about 1-2c with lying snow too,anyway let’s see what actually happens 

 

 

 

It's only 3.1 degrees here at midday today. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bbc still going for cold all next week? to me it looks like cold will be over by Thursday

[sparky1972]

And onto the next chase for snow here, next week is looking cloudy and chilly, turning less chilly by the weekend, bring on a nice warm spring, lol. 

[Matthew.]

32 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

And onto the next chase for snow here, next week is looking cloudy and chilly, turning less chilly by the weekend, bring on a nice warm spring, lol. 

I’m hoping for March 2012  would be nice to see a bit more snow in Feb though

[James1979]

Briefly logging on- is backtrack number 40 of the past decade happening yet or are we still on for the intense cold? 

[Snow Grain]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, what a run, I can't contain my enthusiasm! cold shots galore with frosts, ice and snow showers / frontal rain / sleet and snow rapidly following each other across the uk on the Gfs 12z hardly drawing breath before the next cold shot sweeps in from the w / nw with extra zing..exciting stuff if you're in the firing line, which most of us would be!!

Potentially the most interesting / exciting period of this winter so far on a nationwide scale is almost upon us..starting with very cold air seeping in from the east through the first half of next week with severe frosts and even snow for some areas ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄!!

I can’t see what the excitement is about for next week, yes it will turn colder and there are some snow opportunities but once the Atlantic comes through, we are looking at marginality at best.  Snow on high ground in the north west but that’s just standard winter weather from north westerlies.  The charts alway look impressive showing cold uppers with north westerlies coming out of Greenland but they very rarely deliver for the majority of the population.  Last time we had a similar set up it was mostly rain throughout England and Wales apart from elevation. Southern Scotland did well.

[Frosty_wsm]

12 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

funny isnt it? there are lots of posts regarding all areas of the country yet as soon as the south east is mentioned, out come the posts such as this. by population concentration, most people live towards the south east of england therefore statistically, there will be more posts from that area. i'm originally from northumberland- the largest and least dense populated county and the number of netweather members from there reflects this. 

add in 2 factors- the south east will be the first area affected by this upcoming cold spell, so naturally, it is a current subject of discussion.

secondly, some of us in the far south east corner, haven't seen lying snow for 5 years so forgive us if we feel the need to discuss it....

Yeah but the model thread ain't the place to do it, the se regional would be more appropriate. Thought I'd reply to your post in the correct thread too. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by Smartie

[stevofunnelcl]

Same old story, get excited for next week, when that's not going to happen, it's back to the long range

Now, get excited about the second half of February

The carrot is always dangled, it's never reached... as soon as you get close, the carrot is moved further away

[bobbydog]

5 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Yeah but the model thread ain't the place to do it, the se regional would be more appropriate. Thought I'd reply to your post in the correct thread too. 

it is the place to do it if its what the models are showing! there's nothing in the rules which says you can't mention the area in which any particular weather type is occuring!

[Daniel*]

10 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather!!

Are we really going to see +7c in London on Monday?

As I’ve said greater chance of hell freezing over. Ignore.

[sparky1972]

54 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Same old story, get excited for next week, when that's not going to happen, it's back to the long range

Now, get excited about the second half of February

The carrot is always dangled, it's never reached... as soon as you get close, the carrot is moved further away

i know what you mean, next week is looking chilly but no snow, Met office says rain on monday, tuesday and thursday for this part of Lincs, bring on spring, lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, James1979 said:

Briefly logging on- is backtrack number 40 of the past decade happening yet or are we still on for the intense cold? 

no intense cold, just a few days snow flurries for the SE, sun/mon, dry elsewhere, turning milder from the west on Thursday, cooler Friday, then mild for weekend

[knocker]

Apparently the ecm is again in grave danger of excommunication but this time without redress.

[cheese]

 

2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

it is the place to do it if its what the models are showing! there's nothing in the rules which says you can't mention the area in which any particular weather type is occuring!

There isn't, but don't be offended when the rest of us don't care.

[Pjginger]

Only a few days ago we had -10 uppers coming from both the east and northwest. How can it go so wrong

 

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

 

There isn't, but don't be offended when the rest of us don't care.

i'm not. but apparently too many people do care - about something in their own imagination....

[Seasonal Trim]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

 

There isn't, but don't be offended when the rest of us don't care.

What an odd comment!

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

What an odd comment!

Not at all.