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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
5 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

At least sea temps have dropped nicely, :D North sea just 6'C now according our local weather forecaster. :cold:

Talking of sea temperatures, lots of fun on the mod thread at the moment. In fact id go as far to say the sea temps discussion has overtook the 'will it snow imby debate'. Im tempted to message knocker see if he'll  pop down and dip he's  toes in for us and settle the arguments once and for all!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Well, another cold spell begins.

Stay safe everyone..... Temps will be down at 5c with a keen north easterly wind and a bit of wintriness over high ground. 

I'm running out of space in my garden now for 'potential snowmen'. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

Still nothing in terms of significant wintry conditions mentioned on BBC weather!

Temps on Monday between 4c & 6c for many area's

Are they just holding back until they are absolutely sure or could this be another damp squib?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes another pipe dream from ECM..

Phil Averys forecast just now actually had me chuckle.

Uppers of -10 and temps of 4 to 6..

Basically im wondering if its just a complete waste of time looking at any model past 96hrs.

Clearly reading Exeters updates is also a complete waste of time..dinner time today Exeter talking of cold taking hold and 8 hours later we have the NWP 12Z pretty much all showing the cold being eroded thurs and Avery talking about the Atlantic next week.

Its a load of old cobblers, all of it.

Had enough of chasing rainbows now.Im sure im not the only one.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes another pipe dream from ECM..

Phil Averys forecast just now actually had me chuckle.

Uppers of -10 and temps of 4 to 6..

Basically im wondering if its just a complete waste of time looking at any model past 96hrs.

Clearly reading Exeters updates is also a complete waste of time..dinner time today Exeter talking of cold taking hold and 8 hours later we have the NWP 12Z pretty much all showing the cold being eroded thurs and Avery talking about the Atlantic next week.

Its a load of old cobblers, all of it.

Had enough of chasing rainbows now.Im sure im not the only one.

 

This has definitely been over hyped. As soon as I saw the models start to water down the uppers, I knew it was only going one way.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CK1981 said:

This has definitely been over hyped. As soon as I saw the models start to water down the uppers, I knew it was only going one way.

It ALWAYS goes one way once we reach 144hrs.

No doubt this SSW will give us a cold spring again.

Wonderful.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes another pipe dream from ECM..

Phil Averys forecast just now actually had me chuckle.

Uppers of -10 and temps of 4 to 6..

Basically im wondering if its just a complete waste of time looking at any model past 96hrs.

Clearly reading Exeters updates is also a complete waste of time..dinner time today Exeter talking of cold taking hold and 8 hours later we have the NWP 12Z pretty much all showing the cold being eroded thurs and Avery talking about the Atlantic next week.

Its a load of old cobblers, all of it.

Had enough of chasing rainbows now.Im sure im not the only one.

 

I think what is more concerning is the fact that time and again over the past few years, background signals that have appeared conducive have not allowed us to experience a spell of proper winter weather. 

It's almost as though something has not been taken into account which is overriding any cold signal. Not sure what this could be but the Azores high (displaced or otherwise) often seems to be involved. 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Just now, northwestsnow said:

It ALWAYS goes one way once we reach 144hrs.

No doubt this SSW will give us a cold spring again.

Wonderful.

Exactly! We need cold now, not March and April. I bet the models will backtrack further in the morning. I want to be optimistic, but I have a gut feeling this is going to be another let down.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

I think what is more concerning is the fact that time and again over the past few years, background signals that have appeared conducive have not allowed us to experience a spell of proper winter weather. 

It's almost as though something has not been taken into account which is overriding any cold signal. Not sure what this could be but the Azores high (displaced or otherwise) often seems to be involved. 

Agreed.

Some wont like it but i honestly think its related to the warming oceans- the jet is just far to strong nowadays,

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CK1981 said:

Exactly! We need cold now, not March and April. I bet the models will backtrack further in the morning. I want to be optimistic, but I have a gut feeling this is going to be another let down.

Well last moan from me before i get back to work , never say never, but once the downgrades begin how many times do we see them reverse?

I cant recall a time,ever.

Maybe 00z runs will buck the trend, i will say this though, i think Exeter should scrap their daily MRF, its a bloody joke.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Some wont like it but i honestly think its related to the warming oceans- the jet is just far to strong nowadays,

I agree!

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well last moan from me before i get back to work , never say never, but once the downgrades begin how many times do we see them reverse?

I cant recall a time,ever.

Maybe 00z runs will buck the trend, i will say this though, i think Exeter should scrap their daily MRF, its a bloody joke.

Maybe we’ll be in for a surprise in the morning. I do hope so, because this winter has been shocking here 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Maybe we’ll be in for a surprise in the morning. I do hope so, because this winter has been shocking here 

Winter has been shocking in a lot of places. Bar the spell in early December it has been shocking here for sure.

Going 4-5 years without lying snow for more than a few hrs in January should be pretty much unheard of. However it has become the new norm. Absoloutely dire.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Winter has been shocking in a lot of places. Bar the spell in early December it has been shocking here for sure.

Going 4-5 years without lying snow for more than a few hrs in January should be pretty much unheard of. However it has become the new norm. Absoloutely dire.

Welcome to the new and Improved UK :cc_confused::sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

There is a much simpler explanation...

This upcoming spell was ramped. We had people predicting snow amounts no models were. When others pointed this out, they were mobbed.

It was a huge example of hope casting, very loosely based on a few preferred model runs.

My suggestion? Model output is very easy to read and the GFS, for example, gives you surface conditions as well. For ECM, use weather sites like yr.no to put those charts into context. Educate yourselves and stop being sucked in.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
15 minutes ago, jvenge said:

There is a much simpler explanation...

This upcoming spell was ramped. We had people predicting snow amounts no models were. When others pointed this out, they were mobbed.

It was a huge example of hope casting, very loosely based on a few preferred model runs.

My suggestion? Model output is very easy to read and the GFS, for example, gives you surface conditions as well. For ECM, use weather sites like yr.no to put those charts into context. Educate yourselves and stop being sucked in.

 

 

 

Wouldnt trust ECM as far as i could throw it, the number of times its predicted freezes and ended up wrong is ridculous.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wouldnt trust ECM as far as i could throw it, the number of times its predicted freezes and ended up wrong is ridculous.

 

I'll be sincere. I don't check UK surface conditions much. I know there were a few ECMs showing day time max of 1c or so though these days. Another showing 10cm of snow for large parts. But this wasn't ever a consensus.

Best of luck. Likely another go at something in another 10 days or so. Until then, not mild. As usually, surprises can suddenly show at T168 or so as well.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, jvenge said:

I'll be sincere. I don't check UK surface conditions much. I know there were a few ECMs showing day time max of 1c or so though these days. Another showing 10cm of snow for large parts. But this wasn't ever a consensus.

Best of luck. Likely another go at something in another 10 days or so. Until then, not mild. As usually, surprises can suddenly show at T168 or so as well.

 

Thanks Jvenge-

TBH its a bit furstrating this SSW is going to happen in mid feb as far as im concerned.Iknow a strat warming is not the be all and end all but i  would much prefer to see one in Nov/Dec or Jan, for me mid feb is too late and even more annoying- the effects will most likely be felt late Feb and march when you really need uppers below -10, crikey first week in Feb and we have -8/9/10 uppers and temps of 4 and 5 across the south..(acc to the beeb).

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

To those who read the MOD thread regularly, but think they have inferior knowledge to others, ignore the self appointed experts and their sheep and the cold rampers who pick their favourite charts and comment on them like they will verify. Do this and you won't be disappointed when a cold spell turns into a damp squib. Only a handful of posters in there, post realistically about model output, the rest tell you what you want to hear so they can gain popularity and further expand their egos.

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Braintree essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything exciting.
  • Location: Braintree essex

Has the forecast from a very changed overnight they were saying no snow next week wish they would make up their minds .

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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex

I think I’m going to stop visiting here so much. I’m not going to flounce off in a strop with talk of never returning, but for the past god knows how many years the Mod thread has been serving up the sort of dramatic crap that the Daily Express would be proud of. Taking only the most extreme output and running with it as if the majority don’t show something more mundane, then consigning the model to the bin when it doesn’t follow through 3 or 4 days beforehand. 

Rinse and repeat.

I think I’ll stick with some of the more seasoned posters (and ex-posters) on Twitter and leave the rest of you to it.

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