Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

The other day, during a severe bout of cognitive dissonance, the whole of  the ecm output was consigned to the bin for not even attempting to give people what they wanted. Today I'm pleased to announce the second coming and it's return to the fold.

Is the GFS welcomed back in yet?

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Is the GFS welcomed back in yet?

Precarious, hanging by a thread. So to speak

[Sky Full]

We are all going to get BURIED!

 .  

 .  

OK...   Breathe...

Ramp over!  

[snowblizzard]

BBC weather forecasts & outlook still rather underwhelming!

But, a smidgen more in the way of hints that next week could be much colder with snow for some.

I'm not going to get too excited just yet because this can still go wrong and it does initially look the wrong side of marginal for most! 

 

Edited February 1, 2018 by snowblizzard

[knocker]

I know not why but this fluttered into my in tray

[swebby]

Wrt the beeb forecast - There is still uncertainty in the models and the snow events (tue/wed and especially sat) are arguably marginal for many parts of the uk and even if they were not, they would still be difficult to forecast accurately at this point and will probably remain difficult to forecast until they are actually on top of the uk. With that in mind i doubt the beeb or the met office are going to go in to full snowmagedon ramp mode at this point. The express and daily fail however.....

[Rob Deacon]

Sorry guys I think I just wreaked our chances of any snow, or in the south east at least anyway.

I've only gone and told some family and friends it's going to snow next week lol, what have I done? it always goes wrong when I tell people lol 

[snowblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Rob Deacon said:

Sorry guys I think I just wreaked our chances of any snow, or in the south east at least anyway.

I've only gone and told some family and friends it's going to snow next week lol, what have I done? it always goes wrong when I tell people lol 

Thanks Rob!!!

[EML Network]

I'd like to get excited about next weeks prospects, but until I actually see snow falling and settling on the ground ...I wont.

Too many let downs, too many close calls and tbh unless it's a North Easterly feed with tightly packed isobars and a Minus 10 upper then down here we might as well forget it...or channel low hitting cold entrenched air. 

[Rollo]

Just seen the 12 noon forecast for the weekend,they do not see it as we do, a bit of snow on the hills Saturday and dry on Sunday, temperatures 5-7c.

[sparky1972]

afternoon all, enjoying reading about the potential of a upcomming cold spell, but after the previous excitment that ended in disappointment for many, i suggest we procceed with caution, lol

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, Rollo said:

Just seen the 12 noon forecast for the weekend,they do not see it as we do, a bit of snow on the hills Saturday and dry on Sunday, temperatures 5-7c.

It's a fairly complex setup - The air isn't spectacularly cold on Saturday so intensity of the precipitation will make all the difference. Northern hills are a good bet for now, when it comes into range of high-resolution models we'll be able to see with more detail where the risk of snow will be so I expect the forecasts come tomorrow will look rather different for Saturday. 

[Number 23]

The output is very interesting to watch at the moment, but I'm not sold on the idea of a snowbound month ahead just yet.

Looks like at least a few days of quite cold weather kicking off shortly is a certainty, but beyond that still all just for fun.

I'd hold off ordering the grit for now.

[rain_shadow]

What a crap day (weatherwise). Current T = 5.5C. ?

Edited February 1, 2018 by rain_shadow

[Ian Francis]

what with all the ramping going on the model thread, its nice to come here and see some realism. 

[Snowpuff]

I am waiting for the next GFS run to crush my hopes and dreams before I get too over-excited! Haven't seen a dusting of that delicious powder since 2012!

[Methuselah]

Just seen the latest BBC forecast, and there's a considerable divergence from that and the GFS 06Z: one has temps of 5C come Sunday, whereas the other has 850hpa's of around -10C or lower...

I don't think I need to say which is which!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Those temperatures are probably in built up cities like London, I tend to ignore the temperatures they say.

[snowray]

3 hours ago, Rob Deacon said:

Sorry guys I think I just wreaked our chances of any snow, or in the south east at least anyway.

I've only gone and told some family and friends it's going to snow next week lol, what have I done? it always goes wrong when I tell people lol 

!

[Lampostwatcher]

Chris fawkes mentioning significant snowfall Monday into Tuesday UK wide 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not getting excited until we see yellow, or better, amber warnings from the Met Office for ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Edited February 1, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm getting quite used to all this PMR air masses giving is wet snow and slush! The next lot progged to pass over us looks like the best of the winter? When did we last see so much -10 uppers wash over us?

Cold , raw with wet snow...... winters of my youth!

[swebby]

8 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Chris fawkes mentioning significant snowfall Monday into Tuesday UK wide 

Do we know if he is a snow ramper? Darren Bett/Tomasz Schafernaker tend to strike me as being happy as larry when forecasting snow. 

I think prolongedsnowlover is spot on - wait for the metoff warnings before getting excited.

[bluearmy]

Can we make sure that in future, the modelling of a snowy spell of weather and the closing of the transfer window are not allowed to happen together 

[Snowjokes92]

My mum use to mention how when she was young in the 60s and 70s how the snow use to be really deep here in west yorks. Are the current models similar to what use to happen in the 60s n 70s with lows dropping down the country like in a battle ground? Thats all i can think how the snow must have been treacherous in those days, from organised, stalling fronts. A lot of people mention the snow been deeper back in those days.