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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
40 minutes ago, swebby said:

Hi NWS - have you stated the correct day?  For sat all i'm seeing on the 6z gfs is sleet/rain for majority of Eng, with any snow confined to elevation (>300m north of the M4).  Tue/Wed next week however -that's a different matter.:)

GFS showing snow for many saturday :)

Whether its correct is another matter entirely..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Madden would be the opposite. 15 feet drifts in london and the channel freezing over......

Don't mock!:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Did piers corbyn forecast this approaching cold spell, or is he still waiting for some filaments to erupt from uranus:oops::sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Did piers corbyn forecast this approaching cold spell, or is he still waiting for some filaments to erupt from uranus:oops::sorry:

Come on Lass? Piers is a world-renowned holy man: he uses The Ark of The Filament, in making his guesses forecasts!:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Just now, CK1981 said:

The Met Office outlook for next week is far from exciting, which surprised me after this morning’s model output!

Because you actually need to look at what the output is showing and not what some netweather members want it to show. Also, the MetOffice don't react to an single operational run.

For example, the ECM this morning, isn't showing the snow fest that some think it was. The snow threat (whatever that means) is actually to the north west and Scotland initially, with parts of Wales and surrounding area joining the part afterwards. Eastern parts and coastal areas see very little. So, what happened was, people saw the uppers, presumed convective snow on offer, then saw the cold on the other side, assumed a meet in the middle scenario. Win win win scenario.

But, while those uppers are showing off the east coast, it wouldn't actually take much of a shift at all for that scenario to change. See, quite balanced, eh? Recognizing what the output is giving now, but freely admitting minor changes could increase those snow chances/totals.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Just seen the Beeb's weekend forecast, and it looks like a Hitchcock movie: Dial M for Marginal!:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Because you actually need to look at what the output is showing and not what some netweather members want it to show. Also, the MetOffice don't react to an single operational run.

For example, the ECM this morning, isn't showing the snow fest that some think it was. The snow threat (whatever that means) is actually to the north west and Scotland initially, with parts of Wales and surrounding area joining the part afterwards. Eastern parts and coastal areas see very little. So, what happened was, people saw the uppers, presumed convective snow on offer, then saw the cold on the other side, assumed a meet in the middle scenario. Win win win scenario.

But, while those uppers are showing off the east coast, it wouldn't actually take much of a shift at all for that scenario to change. See, quite balanced, eh? Recognizing what the output is giving now, but freely admitting minor changes could increase those snow chances/totals.

 

I didn’t mention a snow fest at all and nor am I expecting it. I mean, their outlook doesn’t reflect the very cold uppers showing on today’s output, which is what surprised me.

I know they don’t react to one operational run, but the trend to cold has been building over the past 24 / 36 hours on all models, so it did come as a surprise.

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Location: High Wycombe

Give it 5 days and well we having raging south westerly's across the country the models will start picking this up later today....

Big disappointment on way for many...  :fool:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
19 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The Met Office outlook for next week is far from exciting, which surprised me after this morning’s model output!

Meto use their models, Mogreps and Glosea. Until they come on board their outlooks will be the usual "ifs", "probably", "maybe"........

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Meto use their models, Mogreps and Glosea. Until they come on board their outlooks will be the usual "ifs", "probably", "maybe"........

 

Yes  i agree however Fergies tweet looks like Meto are starting to take notice.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Meto use their models, Mogreps and Glosea. Until they come on board their outlooks will be the usual "ifs", "probably", "maybe"........

 

Yes, I know they do, but wasn’t it Glosea which had the strong signal for cold from the east, which all other models are now beginning to show....

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
12 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I didn’t mention a snow fest at all and nor am I expecting it. I mean, their outlook doesn’t reflect the very cold uppers showing on today’s output, which is what surprised me.

I know they don’t react to one operational run, but the trend to cold has been building over the past 24 / 36 hours on all models, so it did come as a surprise.

Sure, understood, but even the temperatures are likely not as low as some would have you believe.

Quote

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 14 Feb 2018:

Cloud, rain and snow are likely on Monday across much of the UK, clearing to sunshine and showers, although the southeast may stay largely dry. Outbreaks of rain and snow could then arrive in the north through Tuesday, with sunny spells elsewhere, although it will be cold. Changeable and windy weather will probably come back on Wednesday with rain and snow, before showers return on Thursday. By the following weekend, settled drier weather with lighter winds may become more dominant, accompanied by overnight frost and fog, which may take a long time to clear on some mornings. It will be windy at times, with a chance of snow showers in the east towards the end of the period. Temperatures are likely to stay below average for the time of year.

So, what do we have here?

Temperatures to stay below average for the time of year? Check. ECM shows a few days of temperatures getting above zero for some parts, minus temperatures during the night.

Cloud, Rain and Snow? Check.

Where it is sunny, cold? Check.

That seems to marry up quite well with the ECM output. If warnings are needed to be issues for the front moving in from the west, I'm sure it will be, in good time. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

......Whilst there is not yet any undercutting -AO/NAO Feb 1978 type redux fully apparent - NWP is now, within the reliable period, adjusting the upstream energy process incrementally, bit by bit, as greater and greater downstream amplification is finally being realised......

Eh? 

Does this mean it will snow in Salwick? :pardon:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

......Whilst there is not yet any undercutting -AO/NAO Feb 1978 type redux fully apparent - NWP is now, within the reliable period, adjusting the upstream energy process incrementally, bit by bit, as greater and greater downstream amplification is finally being realised......

Eh? 

Does this mean it will snow in Salwick? :pardon:

 

 

Oh no, I've made the mistake of reading that quote with the voice of Nigel Hawthorne (the great Sir Humphrey Appleby) and that is going to be impossible to shake off when reading future posts.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
20 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

2013/14 was far far worse than this one for continuous cloud, rain, wind and mildness...I've never been so happy for a winter to end it really was that bad!...it felt like it went on for months unabated. 

I guess it's all relative to where one lives, I almost got excited about the coming weeks charts, because for the first time in 5 years it had a nice big pink slice of marmalade (snowfall) over my area for 2 days (Monday and Tuesday next week), however I see on this latest run 12z ...it's gone ....lmfao

Tbh even if it did snow here the Sea Surface Temperatures and salt air quickly melt any laying snow. 

The past 5 winters in a row have been absolute pig shite for us on the South Coast, I do a lot of running and did 16 miles in the hills on Sunday and I've never known it to be so damn muddy, it was more a dance through the mud than an actual run. 

And that was wearing trail shoes with spikes !! sliipping and sliding all over the shop.

Yup I've given up on seeing any snowfall down here this Winter, despite what any chart throws out. just aint gonna happen

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Ok so I'm looking forward to a few days of cold weather and some nice frosts :)

ECM is nicer than that though as it gets the cold uppers further west, and will be cold all of next week with some good snow chances.. 

However, there's no guarantee it will be more than a few days, e.g. the UKMO would probably bring milder air in on Wednesday, the day after this chart

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Even so, there might be some pretty chilly incursions from the NW afterwards, and some nice eye candy in FI but that's FI.. 

Though in the MOD thread apparently if you say you aren't overwhelmed by the awesomeness of it all, you're a troll, wind up etc.. :rolleyes:

 February could be interesting though, We will see...

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
4 hours ago, EML Network said:

I guess it's all relative to where one lives, I almost got excited about the coming weeks charts, because for the first time in 5 years it had a nice big pink slice of marmalade (snowfall) over my area for 2 days (Monday and Tuesday next week), however I see on this latest run 12z ...it's gone ....lmfao

Tbh even if it did snow here the Sea Surface Temperatures and salt air quickly melt any laying snow. 

The past 5 winters in a row have been absolute pig shite for us on the South Coast, I do a lot of running and did 16 miles in the hills on Sunday and I've never known it to be so damn muddy, it was more a dance through the mud than an actual run. 

And that was wearing trail shoes with spikes !! sliipping and sliding all over the shop.

Yup I've given up on seeing any snowfall down here this Winter, despite what any chart throws out. just aint gonna happen

Yeah pretty bad here on the Essex Riviera too over the last 5 winters - a total of a slusting (dusting of wet snow), 1 inch of wet snow (this winter, melted by the next morning) and some brief rain to snow events without settling is the sum total since spring 2013.

As for this weekend and next week...it looks like another 'slushgate' is on the cards and next week still up in the air with ukmo/gfs looking less good after 6/7 days rather than the cherry picked ecm, an easterly maybe of sorts?. Not holding out for anything dramatic.

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Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire

https://youtu.be/fj5HNnOPmGw who remembers this spell some of the uppers are mental like what were seeing now this spell was really cold 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hmmm- exciting as the EC and GFS18Z were that Beeb forecast was very underwhelming!!

5 to 7DEG in the south is NOT what i was expecting to see OR cold rain on saturday!

EC has -10 uppers in the SE sunday were are they getting temps from?

Hope we are not going to besold another dummy here, i wont be confident until i see a major shift in that forecast..

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

well all i say  its looking  good up to 312 hr if the models are right were did put my huskies!!

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
20 hours ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Like I said give it 24 hours. Wait and see. 

Good morning Walsall. Only 4 hrs and 1 run before you eat humble pie ?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The other day, during a severe bout of cognitive dissonance, the whole of  the ecm output was consigned to the bin for not even attempting to give people what they wanted. Today I'm pleased to announce the second coming and it's return to the fold.

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