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Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Jemma Croton Aficionado

Jemma Croton

Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
Posted
1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

You won't know them. They are also amateur but very experienced. Anyway I might be wrong who knows. But caution is best until T72

Ahhh the reliable amateurs. Those are my favourite kind

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

You won't know them. They are also amateur but very experienced. Anyway I might be wrong who knows. But caution is best until T72

Its Piers Corbyn isn't it! Come on, you can tell me. 

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

My dog tells me it’s going to verify and he knows his stuff

Yes and the air on this chart is from Labrador.

IMG_3639.PNG

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The charts are showing a cold spell but I'm told by a couple of reliable weather guys that they expect them to backtrack in 24 hours. I'm an amateur myself but this is what I am being told 

It’s not Ian brown is it ?

wtf ??

Edited by snowbob
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howham Rising Star

howham

Posted
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl
Posted
9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Its Piers Corbyn isn't it! Come on, you can tell me. 

I think it's Jeremy...

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

-8 uppers aren't even that cold. 3 degrees for lower ground. Marginal for snow 

Gonna open a comedy thread..

You can have top headline -status-..

 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

I'm no inspector clueso..... but do i detect a errr

Image result for Trolls

Edited by karlos1983
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
55 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Give it 24 hours and we'll get a backtrack from the models. I'm predicting an Azores high with westerlies. Brief easterly for a day or 2 max then back to wet and windy weather

Well ent you a joyous chap, think you will be wrong very very wrong. Enjoy the cold as it’s coming

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Biensie Enthusiast

Biensie

Posted
  • Location: Rainham Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow all the way
  • Location: Rainham Kent
Posted
26 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

You won't know them. They are also amateur but very experienced. Anyway I might be wrong who knows. But caution is best until T72

James Madden??

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swebby Veteran

swebby

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
Posted
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

RAMP ALERT!!!

GFS6z showing snow across the country on saturday!!:yahoo:

Hi NWS - have you stated the correct day?  For sat all i'm seeing on the 6z gfs is sleet/rain for majority of Eng, with any snow confined to elevation (>300m north of the M4).  Tue/Wed next week however -that's a different matter.:)

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WalsallWeather123 Enthusiast

WalsallWeather123

Posted
Posted

Recently in Walsall we had rain all night, can't remember the date but in December. However South Birmingham had a good dumping of snow. Even with -8 uppers and heavy snow forecast all night. This is why I'm saying it's very marginal. We have the possibility of cold air streaming in from the west which isn't know for snowy conditions 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

-8 uppers  which looking at the mean  shows from a easterly quarter  not cold?.  It can snow in that scenario from -2 uppers  Im a little confused.  you may be right in the downgrading of this event/period  however you analysis of the charts provided shows that with all due respect a pop into the learning thread may help.

Please please weirpig dont even bother entertaining this conversation!!i think he just trying to get a reaction out of everyone!!i find it quite amusing though lol!!spicing up the forum not that it needa spicing up!!but then again i could have egg on me face and it could all go tits up and walsall weather will be right!!

Edited by shaky
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Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
28 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

You won't know them. They are also amateur but very experienced. Anyway I might be wrong who knows. But caution is best until T72

Best caution an experienced amateur...?

 

Mind blown.

 

Back to the models....

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WalsallWeather123 Enthusiast

WalsallWeather123

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

-8 uppers  which looking at the mean  shows from a easterly quarter  not cold?.  It can snow in that scenario from -2 uppers  Im a little confused.  you may be right in the downgrading of this event/period  however you analysis of the charts provided shows that with all due respect a pop into the learning thread may help.

Forget that I quoted that chart. Just generally talking about -8 uppers meaning marginal conditions. Not guaranteed a widespread snow event 

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parrotingfantasist Enthusiast

parrotingfantasist

Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Forget that I quoted that chart. Just generally talking about -8 uppers meaning marginal conditions. Not guaranteed a widespread snow event 


Is that how it is? You say that reliable forecasters told you of a model shift (Doesn't say the names) and you've been mild ramping in the face of unbelievable odds. What is the goal? If you are right I will eat my trousers ...

 

 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Forget that I quoted that chart. Just generally talking about -8 uppers meaning marginal conditions. Not guaranteed a widespread snow event 

So you are not talking about what the models show then? I love a good theoretical discussion but it seams to me you are arguing against your own thesis.

For example "no one has claimed -8 850hpa Air would guarantee widespread snowfall. because even when you theroritally talking about something you need more than one parameters. 

Like the amount of precipitation around, no moisture no snow. Source of the air Be it Continental or Polar Maritime. Dew point, Surface temperature, Type of PPN (Continuous and heavy or Light and showery.

This is why we stick to talking about what the models actually show rather than talking about what you think your amature weather friends have told you think.

 

Edited by frosty ground
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm no inspector clueso..... but do i detect a errr

Image result for Trolls

Watch out for next weeks warm-cold clash...It's a berm!:D

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WalsallWeather123 Enthusiast

WalsallWeather123

Posted
Posted

I have looked at the models lol. And I have got opinions off other people lol. I fly out of the country on Saturday otherwise I couldn't care less what happens. To me the models show marginal conditions and with I believe further downgrades to come, it will be rain on this battleground event on Saturday. Anyway, most people think I'm chatting bubbles and just arguing for the sake of it. Like I said wait 24 hours

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Lampostwatcher Seasoned

Lampostwatcher

Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I have looked at the models lol. And I have got opinions off other people lol. I fly out of the country on Saturday otherwise I couldn't care less what happens. To me the models show marginal conditions and with I believe further downgrades to come, it will be rain on this battleground event on Saturday. Anyway, most people think I'm chatting bubbles and just arguing for the sake of it. Like I said wait 24 hours

23 hours t-23

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted
31 minutes ago, Biensie said:

James Madden??

Madden would be the opposite. 15 feet drifts in london and the channel freezing over......

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