Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[SLEETY]

How can you write of the chance of Easterly outbreak when you have a very cold gfs ensemble set again this morning.

[tight isobar]

48 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I gave up chasing cold spells weeks ago.

Places up North will probably see snow again before Spring proper set in, but down South - for me - it's all about longer warmer day's from now on.

I take it thats a 'tongue in cheek' post !??

The ops are on miss-managment due to non-decipher of energy track...to be fully expected.

London ens have been...and continue to trend colder..if anything..and are many options availible for decent cold incursions!

As even todays operationals will likely note.

Edit.

And without upsetting other regions in here. Its fastly becoming a heads up for more southern contingent than all winter thus far.

With 'perhaps' that particular-being the more noted for any notable cold transfer...

Edited January 29, 2018 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

53 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I take it thats a 'tongue in cheek' post !??

The ops are on miss-managment due to non-decipher of energy track...to be fully expected.

London ens have been...and continue to trend colder..if anything..and are many options availible for decent cold incursions!

As even todays operationals will likely note.

Edit.

And without upsetting other regions in here. Its fastly becoming a heads up for more southern contingent than all winter thus far.

With 'perhaps' that particular-being the more noted for any notable cold transfer...

Unfortunately i think the chances of a decent easterly are reducing rapidly.

And we will see changes in Exeters out look either today or tomorrow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately i think the chances of a decent easterly are reducing rapidly.

And we will see changes in Exeters out look either today or tomorrow.

April we'll get it

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately i think the chances of a decent easterly are reducing rapidly.

And we will see changes in Exeters out look either today or tomorrow.

Excellent News Very much looking forward to the Lighter Evenings and signs of Early Spring.

C.S

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

April we'll get it

Possibly.

It is a shame that there is unlikely to be a decent easterly as the source would be extremely cold.

Glosea called it wrong..i posted the other day about any model depicting stable blocking to the north being treated with suspicion.

The game has changed...no doubt about it.

[snowblizzard]

Like a few of the more experienced members on here, I just couldn't see where all this cold pooling from the East next week was actually going to come from!

My God, what a struggle to get a pattern that would favour decent cold across our shores.

I'm beginning to think we will be chasing this until April and then it will all fall into place!

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Like a few of the more experienced members on here, I just couldn't see where all this cold pooling from the East next week was actually going to come from!

My God, what a struggle to get a pattern that would favour decent cold across our shores.

I'm beginning to think we will be chasing this until April and then it will all fall into place!

Lol..

I shall come back to quote this post after todays outs..

#experienced members#cold pooling#transfer to uk !!! #longer warmer days

Edited January 29, 2018 by tight isobar

[MP-R]

10 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Like a few of the more experienced members on here, I just couldn't see where all this cold pooling from the East next week was actually going to come from!

My God, what a struggle to get a pattern that would favour decent cold across our shores.

I'm beginning to think we will be chasing this until April and then it will all fall into place!

Wouldn't mind it in April as it'd be very pleasant and probably sunny where I live lol.

Problem is, I look for cyclonic April showers setups then.

[SLEETY]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Possibly.

It is a shame that there is unlikely to be a decent easterly as the source would be extremely cold.

Glosea called it wrong..i posted the other day about any model depicting stable blocking to the north being treated with suspicion.

The game has changed...no doubt about it.

We will see later if glosea has called it wrong,how do you know yet when no Easterly actually exists yet  

think the met have access to far more data than most people on here,let’s all see later who has egg on their faces or not

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

We will see later if glosea has called it wrong,how do you know yet when no Easterly actually exists yet  

think the met have access to far more data than most people on here,let’s all see later who has egg on their faces or not

We will see sleety :-)

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Lol..

I shall come back to quote this post after todays outs..

#experienced members#cold pooling#transfer to uk !!! #longer warmer 

Edited January 29, 2018 by northwestsnow

[SteveB]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

I take it thats a 'tongue in cheek' post !??

The ops are on miss-managment due to non-decipher of energy track...to be fully expected.

London ens have been...and continue to trend colder..if anything..and are many options availible for decent cold incursions!

As even todays operationals will likely note.

Edit.

And without upsetting other regions in here. Its fastly becoming a heads up for more southern contingent than all winter thus far.

With 'perhaps' that particular-being the more noted for any notable cold transfer...

Not at all, it would need to be epic for snow in my locale, and while FI is epic (as it always is) it's unlikely to verify.  

[Northern Sky]

There is far too much energy going over the top of the high if GFS is to be believed. There's doesn't seem to be any chance of an Easterly setting up over the next 10 days.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

 

The game has changed...no doubt about it.

I think there is more chance of a frigid winter easterly coming off in the next 20 years than I Remember Atlantic 252's prediction of February's rainfall figure of 252mm. 

[feb1991blizzard]

55 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think there is more chance of a frigid winter easterly coming off in the next 20 years than I Remember Atlantic 252's prediction of February's rainfall figure of 252mm. 

There's more chance of a frigid winter  Easterly coming off this February than his rainfall prediction but unfortunately, that isn't saying much.

[Decemberof2010]

6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Beginning to look like Glosea underestimated the Atlantic unfortunately.

The Atlantic just wont relent.

Id expect Exeter to revise their outlook today.. :-(

They have revised it, however for the better imo. Talk of an easterly wind and snow showers

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

They have revised it, however for the better imo. Talk of an easterly wind and snow showers

Yes im suprised.

Looks very similar.

Im not buying it tho ..i expect it to downgrade tomorrow.

Id be happy to be wrong tho :-)

[Hammer50]

Why is snow row saying 21 in favour of snow on Wednesday Thursday and all forecasts say 7c.

[southbank]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im suprised.

Looks very similar.

Im not buying it tho ..i expect it to downgrade tomorrow.

Id be happy to be wrong tho :-)

That Meto update just screams potential to me , the Op runs wont really play catch up to this weekend

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

They have revised it, however for the better imo. Talk of an easterly wind and snow showers

They havent changed it really.it mentioned snow showers yesterday.

I really hope the easterly upgrades..

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

That Meto update just screams potential to me , the Op runs wont really play catch up to this weekend

Fingers crossed

[Decemberof2010]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im suprised.

Looks very similar.

Im not buying it tho ..i expect it to downgrade tomorrow.

Id be happy to be wrong tho :-)

Likewise:-)

[mountain shadow]

The Met Update doesn't look in anyway exciting to me.

Looks like a UK high followed by a return to zonal conditions (although the odd toppler might occur).

Far South East Kent might pick up a flurry or two and it will be dry and cold at least.

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im suprised.

Looks very similar.

Im not buying it tho ..i expect it to downgrade tomorrow.

Id be happy to be wrong tho :-)

Given -guidance.. im not suprised with the upgraded, forecast.

And beleive me that met won't refer without...GOOD GUIDANCE!!

Edited January 29, 2018 by tight isobar