Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Carl46Wrexham]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS has defo dropped the blocked theme and ECM whilst better looks a bit 'iffy' with the wedge of high pressure to the north east looking less than stable and to a degree to far away. I bet we end up with the northern arm of the jet being too strong and we end up with some cold zonality again...

Ugh! God I hope not. We haven't dried out yet from the last lot of cold wet muck.

[knocker]

Sad days as I note JH has crossed over to the dark side.

[northwestsnow]

Poor EC..

Easterly as far away as ever this evening.

[Carl46Wrexham]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Poor EC..

Easterly as far away as ever this evening.

 

[Matthew.]

There’s no way that Canadian vortex is letting high p in surely. I really hope high p over the Uk saves itself at least till March then get the best of the sun. The thing which would make a difference is a Ssw in my small eyes 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Matthew.

[Matthew.]

Obviously a cold March could be still on but is February running away

[SLEETY]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Poor EC..

Easterly as far away as ever this evening.

Don’t despair,until any Easterly appears within t96 then just think it won’t be happening,then your never get wound up again.

Any later output from any model is normally junk  and hardly ever verifies ,so even if ecm had shown a mega Easterly I would have ignored it anyway.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean another kick in the wotsits i'm afraid.

Hoping for a big turn around tomorrow ..

[78/79]

13 hours ago, snefnug said:

You leave Sidney alone!    As for Knocker, I enjoy his posts especially now we have the short range thread.

A North American Tree Rat, Happily the native Red is making tenuous steps towards some sort of recovery  in Cornwall ,just as long as those greys can be kept at bay with their aggression and parapox virus,.by whatever means are necessary.

 

 

https://www.wildlife-woodlands.co.uk/cornwall-red-squirrel-project-2/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by 78/79

[Methuselah]

Sidney in a contemplative moment: 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Sad days as I note JH has crossed over to the dark side.

John Holmes has always been a fan of winter cold going on his posts since ive been on here, its just that being a pro, he doesn't ramp it out of all proportion, also he doesn't get devastated like me when it doesn't happen, plus he doesn't like it sustaining for too long or being too severe like 1963, where as I would take that weather all year long!

[Mokidugway]

So spring awaits my return to the northern hemisphere,excellent news 

[snefnug]

16 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

A North American Tree Rat, Happily the native Red is making tenuous steps towards some sort of recovery  in Cornwall ,just as long as those greys can be kept at bay with their aggression and parapox virus,.by whatever means are necessary.

 

I would’ave thought oor Sid was Cornwallian Red. He be that Knocker, b’aint he?

https://www.wildlife-woodlands.co.uk/cornwall-red-squirrel-project-2/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[78/79]

Preferred Grey Squirrel viewing apparatus

[Mokidugway]

[SLEETY]

Ecm mean is useless if it’s wrong to begin with lol,a mild outlier twice in its run this evening ,posted on the MOD thread.

never thought using a mean of all ensemble runs is any good anyway,when their is normally such a difference between each individual ensemble .

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Sidney in a contemplative moment: 

Actually I was down to see him today and, this bodes ill, he was busy burying his nuts

[johnholmes]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually I was down to see him today and, this bodes ill, he was busy burying his nuts

or, maybe he was digging them up?

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

or, maybe he was digging them up?

No, he took three lots of nuts off me and popped straight off to bury them in different spots. Sure sign that something cold from the east is on it's way bearing gifts.

[ribster]

8 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm hoping that that's the back broken of winter 17/18 and barring the odd day we have a slow emergence now into spring?

We keep seeing cold in the far FI but it always mellows as we run into reasonable time frames?

With the Arctic not holding its cold as it used to we are quite lucky to have not been the choice 'port of call' for it all winter? Eurasia and east Canada seem to have claimed that title?

Soon be daffodil time and then the wait for the first 70f......

Yes, we might get the odd day of 70f inbetween all the rain, cripes might even be nice enough to have a bbq one day during the summer!

Edited January 28, 2018 by ribster

[78/79]

23 minutes ago, ribster said:

Yes, we might get the odd day of 70f inbetween all the rain, cripes might even be nice enough to have a bbq one day during the summer!

Even as I  write garden centres are busy stocking up with bbq's  ,garden furniture costing hundreds in the hope of persuading some poor sod to buy it,whereby it will then be consigned to the shed  all summer long because the weather is too cr..p to use it.

[northwestsnow]

Beginning to look like Glosea underestimated the Atlantic unfortunately.

The Atlantic just wont relent.

Id expect Exeter to revise their outlook today.. :-(

Edited January 29, 2018 by northwestsnow

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Seems like chasing an Arctic blast now is like looking for a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, let alone any decent Easterlies. Best on offer is average to cool temperatures with the occasional mild spring days like yesterday ?

Edited January 29, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[SteveB]

I gave up chasing cold spells weeks ago.

Places up North will probably see snow again before Spring proper set in, but down South - for me - it's all about longer warmer day's from now on.

[mountain shadow]

I think we can forget about getting anything Easterly wise in the first attempt around a weeks time, maybe get a second chance later in the month.