Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I would ignore that member, he just wants wet and windy all year round, not sure if he winds majority up on purpose, and also that silly imaginary friend 

What a wicked calumny There is nothing imaginary about Sidney.

[carinthian]

The elusive hunt for even a single snowflake to fall in parts of lowland Europe continues at a pace. Newspapers and TV throughout Euroland reporting on the incessant mildness and rainfall ( France, Germany ,Southern Sweden, Low Countries and Poland. Of course the Alps and Spanish Mountains have done well with all this precipitation falling as heavy snow . Crap no winter wonderland again for the populous of Europe ( so far ). I am just wondering when some parts of the South coast of England last saw a snowflake last more than a couple of hours ?  Glad I am hiding away from it all, albeit one mile up in the atmosphere ! 

C

[snefnug]

12 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I would ignore that member, he just wants wet and windy all year round, not sure if he winds majority up on purpose, and also that silly imaginary friend 

You leave Sidney alone!    As for Knocker, I enjoy his posts especially now we have the short range thread.

[Chesil View]

29 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The elusive hunt for even a single snowflake to fall in parts of lowland Europe continues at a pace. Newspapers and TV throughout Euroland reporting on the incessant mildness and rainfall ( France, Germany ,Southern Sweden, Low Countries and Poland. Of course the Alps and Spanish Mountains have done well with all this precipitation falling as heavy snow . Crap no winter wonderland again for the populous of Europe ( so far ). I am just wondering when some parts of the South coast of England last saw a snowflake last more than a couple of hours ?  Glad I am hiding away from it all, albeit one mile up in the atmosphere ! 

C

I can tell you that Carinthian.Feb 3rd 2015 here at Broadmayne just north of Weymouth.

[snowspotter]

Do we start to write off winters soon? every month I look at CET tracker it is above average. Every winter here is the same the last few years rain/ mild/ damp / nothingness no snow - rinse and repeat. I've just been skiing in Austria so have had my snow fix.  Depressing catching up with the model discussion . Now looking at about once a week as sod all happening. Roll on summer here in south east  at least with global warming we are getting warmer summers. 

[jvenge]

8 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Do we start to write off winters soon? every month I look at CET tracker it is above average. Every winter here is the same the last few years rain/ mild/ damp / nothingness no snow - rinse and repeat. I've just been skiing in Austria so have had my snow fix.  Depressing catching up with the model discussion . Now looking at about once a week as sod all happening. Roll on summer here in south east  at least with global warming we are getting warmer summers. 

You must be new here. On Netweather, winters are usually written off each November.

[Matthew.]

There’s a heck of a lot of cold to Nw and Ne on the ECM. We can’t miss out/escape this can we into Feb

[snowspotter]

7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

You must be new here. On Netweather, winters are usually written off each November.

Unfortunately not I've been on here for years watching the usual rubbish unfold bar 2010!

 

[shotski]

52 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The elusive hunt for even a single snowflake to fall in parts of lowland Europe continues at a pace. Newspapers and TV throughout Euroland reporting on the incessant mildness and rainfall ( France, Germany ,Southern Sweden, Low Countries and Poland. Of course the Alps and Spanish Mountains have done well with all this precipitation falling as heavy snow . Crap no winter wonderland again for the populous of Europe ( so far ). I am just wondering when some parts of the South coast of England last saw a snowflake last more than a couple of hours ?  Glad I am hiding away from it all, albeit one mile up in the atmosphere ! 

C

Not All the Alps Carinthia. 

French Alps has been poor this season below 2000 mtrs   

 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I can tell you that Carinthian.Feb 3rd 2015 here at Broadmayne just north of Weymouth.

3 years. That's crazy. That's not even a temperate climate. Southern gloom and bog winter. Lovely.

C

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, shotski said:

Not All the Alps Carinthia. 

French Alps has been poor this season below 2000 mtrs   

 

I know some of the Eastern Alps have plenty of snow at 1000m and above ( Austrian Ski Resorts ) but very little in the cities.

C

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, snowspotter said:

Do we start to write off winters soon? every month I look at CET tracker it is above average. Every winter here is the same the last few years rain/ mild/ damp / nothingness no snow - rinse and repeat. I've just been skiing in Austria so have had my snow fix.  Depressing catching up with the model discussion . Now looking at about once a week as sod all happening. Roll on summer here in south east  at least with global warming we are getting warmer summers. 

Yes, nice summers generally down south and crap mild winters. Crap summers up north and mostly crap winters , even snow at elevation disappears after 48 hours. Horrible mild winter this one so far in lowland Europe but not complaining where we live , 1 mile up in the atmosphere , plenty of deep snow cover !

 C

 C

[northwestsnow]

ec control is a thing of beauty this morning.

The trouble is the ammount of times i have seen the control look amazing only for it to virtually never come off.

Hoping GFS comes round to the more amplified version of events but i ll not hold my breath on this.

Edited January 28, 2018 by northwestsnow

[snowfish1]

I've noted your ups and downs style posts regarding the output NWS and can't blame you in the slightest. It begs the question what would happen if say anything beyond T72 was available would that help temper unrealistic expectation of what GFS ECM et al churn out ?

Edited January 28, 2018 by snowfish1

[Froze were the Days]

GFS has defo dropped the blocked theme and ECM whilst better looks a bit 'iffy' with the wedge of high pressure to the north east looking less than stable and to a degree to far away. I bet we end up with the northern arm of the jet being too strong and we end up with some cold zonality again...

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I've noted your ups and downs style posts regarding the output NWS and can't blame you in the slightest. It begs the question what would happen if say anything beyond T72 was available would that help temper unrealistic expectation of what GFS ECM et al churn out ?

Yes im sure your right..

I want to believe but to be honest im sick of seeing potential at 144 onwards..

It gets watered down 95% of the time and has done for the last 3 years..

Its not a coincidence imho..the models consistently underplay the Atlantic - hence my negativity .. its a common sense approach to be sceptical of ANY model depicting any blocking on our locale beyond 144hrs..

Edited January 28, 2018 by northwestsnow

[snowfish1]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im sure your right..

I want to believe but to be honest im sick of seeing potential at 144 onwards..

It gets watered down 95% of the time and has done for the last 3 years..

Its not a coincidence imho..the models consistently underplay the Atlantic - hence my negativity .. its a common sense approach to be sceptical of ANY model depicting any blocking on our locale beyond 144hrs..

I absolutely agree with you. Perhaps the "programmers" of the models should adjust them or upgrade them further but quite how that's done Lord knows.... If they underplay scenarios surely the variables can be adjusted accordingly ?? I don't know as I'm a novice with that side of things 

[SLEETY]

Wonder how much more computing power is needed for the models to be much more accurate after t144,because they still seem garbage to me after about 6 days ahead.

How many times do we see amazing cold sypnoptics in the latter frames of the gfs ecm,but they never fail to materialise at all.

[snowblizzard]

17 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I absolutely agree with you. Perhaps the "programmers" of the models should adjust them or upgrade them further but quite how that's done Lord knows.... If they underplay scenarios surely the variables can be adjusted accordingly ?? I don't know as I'm a novice with that side of things 

Really pointless looking any further than +120 hours on the models (and even then it's often completely wrong) as anything after that range rarely verifies!

So, why do we get sucked-in every year?

Edited January 28, 2018 by snowblizzard

[SLEETY]

There is really no point the models going past t144 think the programmers should just cut off at 6 days on all models that currently go past that timeframe.

Much less stressing on weather forums too.

[snowfish1]

Damn straight it would make life a lot less stressful or perhaps a compromise of tweaking each to avoid their own particular bias and shortening the run time .. Wouldn't that serve to increase accuracy at the same time?

Edited January 28, 2018 by snowfish1

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm hoping that that's the back broken of winter 17/18 and barring the odd day we have a slow emergence now into spring?

We keep seeing cold in the far FI but it always mellows as we run into reasonable time frames?

With the Arctic not holding its cold as it used to we are quite lucky to have not been the choice 'port of call' for it all winter? Eurasia and east Canada seem to have claimed that title?

Soon be daffodil time and then the wait for the first 70f......

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm hoping that that's the back broken of winter 17/18 and barring the odd day we have a slow emergence now into spring?

We keep seeing cold in the far FI but it always mellows as we run into reasonable time frames?

With the Arctic not holding its cold as it used to we are quite lucky to have not been the choice 'port of call' for it all winter? Eurasia and east Canada seem to have claimed that title?

Soon be daffodil time and then the wait for the first 70f......

I've just seen daffodils already here in the Netherlands, crocuses too, they usually only come out late February ? 

Edited January 28, 2018 by ArHu3

[northwestsnow]

Well the Exeter boys seem to be maintaining the signal for an easterly today..

For anything meaningful for me anyway, we would want to see any easterly prior to mid month- the sun gets to work after mid month meaning any laying snow would be under threat -

Key time frame 168 onwards to watch

[stainesbloke]

No more howling winds, please. Had more than my fill of that. More sun would be good too, felt nice this morning.